Calibrated comparison of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody levels in response to protein-, mRNA-, and vector-based COVID-19 vaccines

SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies have been suggested to reflect the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. This study reports the first direct comparison of the SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody response elicited by a protein- (NVX-CoV2373), an mRNA- (Comirnaty), and a vector-based (Vaxzevria) COVID-19 vaccine, calibrated against the WHO international SARS-CoV-2 antibody standard, and further supports the use of neutralizing antibody levels as correlate of protection.

Rapid and Durable Protection Against Marburg Virus with a Single-Shot ChAd3-MARV GP Vaccine

Marburg virus (MARV) causes a severe hemorrhagic fever disease in primates with mortality rates in humans up to 90%. Since 2018, MARV has been identified as a priority pathogen by the WHO, needing urgent research and development of countermeasures due to the high public health risk it poses. Recently, the first case of MARV in West Africa underscored the significant outbreak potential of this virus. The potential for cross border spread as had occurred during the Ebola 2014-2016 outbreak illustrates the critical need for Marburg vaccines. To support regulatory approval of the ChAd3-Marburg vaccine that has completed Phase I trials, we show that a non-replicating chimpanzee-derived adenovirus vector with a demonstrated safety profile in humans (ChAd3) protected against a uniformly lethal challenge with Marburg-Angola. Protective immunity was achieved within 7 days of vaccination and was maintained through one year post vaccination, antigen-specific antibodies were a significant immune correlate of protection in the acute challenge model (p=0.0003), and predictive for protection with an AUC = 0.88. These results demonstrate that a single-shot ChAd3 MARV vaccine generated a protective immune response that was both rapid and durable with a significant immune correlate of protection that will support advanced clinical development.

Waning of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies targeting the Spike protein in individuals post second dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines and risk of breakthrough infections: analysis of the Virus Watch community cohort.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines stimulate production of antibodies targeting the spike protein (anti-S). The level of antibodies following vaccination and trajectories of waning may differ between vaccines influencing the level of protection, how soon protection is reduced and, consequently the optimum timing of booster doses. Methods: We measured SARS-CoV-2 anti-S titre in the context of seronegativity for SARS-CoV-2 anti-Nucleocapsid (anti-N), in samples collected between 1st July and 24th October 2021 in a subset of adults in the Virus Watch community cohort. We compared anti-S levels after BNT162b2 (BioNTech/Pfizer) or ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca/Oxford) vaccination using time since second dose of vaccination, age, sex and clinical vulnerability to investigate antibody waning. To investigate the use of anti-S levels as a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, we undertook a survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier and Cox) with individuals entering 21 days after their second dose of vaccine, or first antibody test after 1st July (whichever was latest) and exiting with the outcome of SARS-Cov-2 infection or at the end of follow up 24th October 2021. We also undertook a negative test design case-control analysis of infections occurring after the second vaccine dose (breakthrough infections) to determine whether the type of vaccine affected the risk of becoming infected. Results: 24049 samples from 8858 individuals (5549 who received a second dose of ChAdOx1 and 3205 BNT162b2) who remained anti-N negative were included in the analysis of anti-S waning over time. Three weeks after the second dose of vaccine BNT162b2 mean anti-S levels were 9039 (95%CI: 7946-10905) U/ml and ChadOx1 were 1025 (95%CI: 917-1146) U/ml. For both vaccines, waning anti-S levels followed a log linear decline from three weeks after the second dose of vaccination. At 20 weeks after the second dose of vaccine, the mean anti-S levels were 1521 (95%CI: 1432-1616) U/ml for BNT162b2 and 342 (95%CI: 322-365) U/ml for ChadOx1. We identified 197 breakthrough infections and found a reduced risk of infection post second dose of vaccine for individuals with anti-S levels greater than or equal to 500 U/ml compared to those with levels under 500 U/ml (HR 0.62; 95%CIs:0.44-0.87; p=0.007). Time to reach an anti-S threshold of 500 U/ml was estimated at 96 days for ChAdOx1 and 257 days for BNT162b2. We found an increased risk of a breakthrough infection for those who received the ChAdOx1 compared to those who received BNT162b2 (OR: 1.43, 95% CIs:1.18-1.73, p<0.001). Discussion: Anti-S levels are substantially higher following the second dose of BNT162b2 compared to ChAdOx1. There is a log linear waning in levels for both vaccines following the second dose. Anti-S levels are an important correlate of protection as demonstrated by those with anti-S levels < 500U/ml following vaccination being at significantly greater risk of subsequent infection. Since anti-S levels are substantially lower in ChAdOx1 than in BNT162b2 and both decline at similar rates we would expect waning immunity to occur earlier in ChAdOx1 compared to BNT162b2. Our results showing an increased risk of breakthrough infections for those who were vaccinated with ChAdOx1 compared to BNT162b2 are in line with this hypothesis. Consistent with our data, national analyses of vaccine effectiveness also suggest that waning of immunity for infection and, to a lesser extent for severe disease, is seen earlier in ChAdOx1 than in BNT162b2. Our data demonstrate the importance of booster doses to maintain protection in the elderly and clinically vulnerable and suggest that these should be prioritised to those who received ChAdOx1 as their primary course.

Comprehensive serological strategy for the diagnosis and monitoring of SARS-CoV-2. From infection to vaccine control

SARS-CoV-2 serology is useful to identify past COVID-19 cases, and it is not useful for acute infection. Levels of specific SARS-CoV-2 anti-N and especially anti-S are expected to be maintained for long periods. At this moment there is not a clear correlate of protection after COVID-19 or vaccination, therefore serological follow up is not indicated in most cases.

Association between hemagglutination inhibition antibody titers and protection against RT-PCR confirmed influenza illness in children 6−35 months of age: statistical evaluation of a correlate of protection

Background Data from a randomized, controlled efficacy trial of an inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine in children 6−35 months of age were used to determine whether hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titer against A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 is a statistical correlate of protection (CoP) for the risk of RT-PCR-confirmed influenza associated with the corresponding strain. Methods The Prentice criteria were used to statistically validate strain-specific HI antibody titer as a CoP. The probability of protection was identified using Dunning's model corresponding to a pre-specified probability of protection at an individual level. The group level protective threshold was identified using Siber's approach, leading to unbiased predicted vaccine efficacy (VE). A case-cohort sub-sample was used for this exploratory analysis. Results Prentice criteria confirmed that HI titer is a statistical CoP for RT-PCR-confirmed influenza. Dunning's model predicted a probability of protection of 49.7% against A/H1N1 influenza and 54.7% against A/H3N2 influenza at an HI antibody titer of 1:40 for the corresponding strain. Higher titers of 1:320 were associated with more than 80% probability of protection. Siber's method predicted VE of 61.0% at a threshold of 1:80 for A/H1N1 and 46.6% at 1:113 for A/H3N2. Conclusions The study validated HI antibody titer as a statistical CoP, by demonstrating that HI titer is correlated with clinical protection against RT-PCR-confirmed influenza associated with the corresponding influenza strain and is predictive of VE in children 6−35 months of age.

Early cross-coronavirus reactive signatures of protective humoral immunity against COVID-19

The introduction of vaccines has inspired new hope in the battle against SARS-CoV-2. However, the emergence of viral variants, in the absence of potent antivirals, has left the world struggling with the uncertain nature of this disease. Antibodies currently represent the strongest correlate of immunity against COVID-19, thus we profiled the earliest humoral signatures in a large cohort of severe and asymptomatic COVID-19 individuals. While a SARS-CoV-2-specific immune response evolved rapidly in survivors of COVID-19, non-survivors exhibited blunted and delayed humoral immune evolution, particularly with respect to S2-specific antibody evolution. Given the conservation of S2 across β-coronaviruses, we found the early development of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity occurred in tandem with pre-existing common β-coronavirus OC43 humoral immunity in survivors, which was selectively also expanded in individuals that develop paucisymptomatic infection. These data point to the importance of cross-coronavirus immunity as a correlate of protection against COVID-19.