Cheating with Models

Beliefs and decisions are often based on confronting models with data. What is the largest “fake” correlation that a misspecified model can generate, even when it passes an elementary misspecification test? We study an “analyst” who fits a model, represented by a directed acyclic graph, to an objective (multivariate) Gaussian distribution. We characterize the maximal estimated pairwise correlation for generic Gaussian objective distributions, subject to the constraint that the estimated model preserves the marginal distribution of any individual variable. As the number of model variables grows, the estimated correlation can become arbitrarily close to one regardless of the objective correlation. (JEL D83, C13, C46, C51)

The perspectives of variable pay in Croatia

Variable pay can have numerous benefits for the employee and the employer, however, the overall effect of variable pay will depend upon employee attitudes and preferences towards such form of compensation. Considering that reward systems in Croatia traditionally used the equality principle, the objective of this paper is to examine the role of variable pay from both employee and employer perspectives. Research results are based on a Delphi research of employee attitudes about variable pay and empirical investigation of actual employers’ variable pay practices. The Delphi study results indicate a lack of consensus about employees’ preferences for variable pay in Croatia. However, practice shows that some form of individual variable pay has been adopted by most examined companies. There is some gap between preferences for variable pay and actual compensation practices so this paper identifies conditions under which acceptance of variable pay can be improved.

THE EFFECT OF SERVICE QUALITY ON CUSTOMER SATISFACTION IN GENIO MANADO HOTELS

The purpose of this research is to explain the variables which influence customers satisfaction at Genio Hotel Manado. The service quality like tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and empathy influence the customers satisfaction. The data were taken from the guests who stay in Genio Hotel for March – May 2018. There were 120 respondences were taken and the data were analyzed by utilizing SPSS 16 to be analyzed by using Reliability Test, Validity Test, Multicollinearity Test and Heteroskedasticity Test, Analisis corelation, Coefficient determinant, Significant and Hypothesis in Likert Scale rating. The result of this research showed that there was significant influence of tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and empathy of customers satisfaction. And for individual variable, tangible was the strongest variable influenced the customers satisfaction, and the second was responsiveness, reliability, and assurance but variable empathy was no significant influence to the customers satisfaction. The result showed that 78,6% was positive influence of the customers satisfaction and the rest 21,4% was from the other variable that were not in the area of this research. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menjelaskan variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi kepuasan pelanggan di Genio Hotel Manado. Kualitas layanan seperti buki fisik, keandalan, daya tanggap, jaminan dan empati mempengaruhi kepuasan pelanggan. Data diambil dari para tamu yang menginap di Genio Hotel untuk bulan Maret - Mei 2018. Ada 120 responden yang diambil dan data dianalisis dengan menggunakan SPSS 16 untuk dianalisis dengan menggunakan Uji Reliabilitas, Uji Validitas, Uji Multikolinieritas, dan Uji Heteroskedastisitas, Analisis korelasi, Penentu Koefisien, Signifikan dan Hipotesis dalam penilaian Skala Likert. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa ada pengaruh yang signifikan antara bukti fisik, keandalan, daya tanggap, jaminan dan empati terhadap kepuasan pelanggan. Dan untuk variabel individu, bukti fisik adalah variabel terkuat yang mempengaruhi kepuasan pelanggan, dan yang kedua adalah daya tanggap, keandalan, dan jaminan tetapi variabel empati tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kepuasan pelanggan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa 78,6% adalah pengaruh positif dari kepuasan pelanggan dan sisanya 21,4% dari variabel lain yang tidak termasuk dalam wilayah penelitian ini.

Classification of generalized ternary quadratic quasigroup functional equations of the length three

A functional equation is called: generalized if all functional variables are pairwise different; ternary if all its functional variables are ternary; quadratic if each individual variable has exactly two appearances; quasigroup if its solutions are studied only on invertible functions. A length of a functional equation is the number of all its functional variables. A complete classification up to parastrophically primary equivalence of generalized quadratic quasigroup functional equations of the length three is given. Solution sets of a full family of representatives of the equivalence are found.

Logical form

Consider the following argument: All men are mortal; Socrates is a man; therefore, Socrates is mortal. Intuitively, what makes this a valid argument has nothing to do with Socrates, men or mortality. Rather, each sentence in the argument exhibits a certain ‘logical form’ and those forms, taken together, constitute a pattern that guarantees the truth of the conclusion given the truth of the premises. More generally, the logical form of a sentence of natural language is what determines both its logical properties and its logical relations to other sentences. The logical form of a sentence of natural language is typically represented in a theory of logical form by a well-formed formula in a ‘logically pure’ language whose only meaningful symbols are expressions with fixed, distinctly logical meanings (for example, quantifiers). Thus, the logical forms of the sentences in the above argument would be represented in a theory based on pure predicate logic by the formulas ‘∀x(Fx → Gx)’, ‘Fy’ and ‘Gy’, respectively, where ‘F’ and ‘G’ are free predicate variables and ‘y’ a free individual variable. The argument’s intuitive validity is then explained by the fact that the logical forms of the premises formally entail the logical form of the conclusion. The primary goal of a theory of logical form is to explain as broad a range of such intuitive logical phenomena as possible in terms of the logical forms that it assigns to sentences of natural language.