Fundamentals of Delphi Research Methodology

Although the Delphi method was designed as a forecasting tool for the RAND Corporation in the 1950s, in the last several decades, this research methodology is commonly used for facilitating consensus in many fields such as business, education, and nursing. Because of the increased use of the Delphi method, more information is needed for researchers to precisely execute a successful Delphi study. This chapter briefly introduces the Delphi method, reviews the methodology, discusses types and variations in Delphi studies, addresses the advantages and limitations, and provides clear, step-by-step guidelines for employing a Delphi method research study.

Interpersonal Mindfulness in Leadership Development: A Delphi Study

Mindfulness is increasingly being used within leadership development to enhance managers’ wellbeing and leadership capability. Given the relational nature of leadership, we posit that an interpersonal form of mindfulness has the potential to offer benefits over and above those provided by personal or internal mindfulness. We therefore chose a Delphi research methodology to consult and achieve consensus among expert practitioners, exploring if and how interpersonal mindfulness, in the specific form of the Interpersonal Mindfulness Program (IMP), can contribute to leadership development. Our aims were, firstly, to identify the necessary components of an IMP-based leadership development program and, secondly, to create guidelines for practitioners. Through four phases of data-gathering and feedback, we achieved consensus among 39 experts on guidelines for how to develop a leadership development program based on the IMP, contextual factors that will act as facilitators or barriers, and selection and screening of participants. The intention is that the resulting guidelines will support the implementation of coherent, consistent IMP-based leadership development, sensitive both to its origins and to the context.

Risk Factors in Various Climates of Wheat Production in Western Iran: Experts’ Opinions

Agriculture is the origin of existence and survival in any society. However, this sector is always associated with risk and uncertainty, and farmers are faced with many challenges. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to explore the (production) risk factors of irrigated wheat production systems among farmers in Kermanshah province, Iran. The exploratory nature of this study on the one hand and the need for expert judgment on the other hand necessitated a Delphi research design. Thus, this study utilized a three-round Delphi technique. The population comprised of 10 subject-matter experts (SME) and 32 agricultural extension experts in two climates (warm and semi-arid and cold and moderate) in seven counties in Kermanshah province. A purposeful (complete) sample of 42 experts in the agricultural field participated in this study. Data were collected using a questionnaire designed on the basis of the Delphi technique. The findings indicated that, after three rounds of Delphi technique, the panel members reached a consensus on 75 factors which were categorized into biological, natural, managerial, and technological-structural groups for production risk. The results of this research provide useful insights for researchers, extension agents, and farmers.

Development of an index system for evaluating the organisational capabilities of primary medical institutions: a modified Delphi study in China

ObjectiveThe low performance of primary medical institutions (PMIs) in China is a significant issue. The WHO proposed that the main reason for the failure of the healthcare system in developing countries is poor organisational capabilities. However, there is no international tool for evaluating the organisational capabilities of PMIs. Therefore, this study aimed to develop an index system for evaluating the organisational capabilities of PMIs.DesignWe searched the literature (English and Chinese) published before June 2020 in the PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang databases to conduct a literature review and develop a preliminary indicator pool. Then, two rounds of Delphi expert consultations were conducted by email from June to September 2020, followed by screening, revision and supplementation of the indicators using the boundary value method. Finally, the analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight of the indicators.SettingThe Delphi consultation questionnaire was distributed to the leaders of PMIs in districts D, F and S in Beijing, China.ParticipantsNineteen leaders of PMIs who had a profound understanding of PMI operations and management and were able to participate in Delphi research from a professional and comprehensive perspective were included in this study.ResultsThe Cr values were 0.76 (first-level indicators) and 0.78 (second-level indicators), indicating that the expert consultation results were accurate and reliable. The result of the expert coordination coefficient test was significant at the p<0.01 level, suggesting that the experts’ views were consistent. The organisational capability index system includes 3 first-level indicators, 9 second-level indicators and 37 third-level indicators.ConclusionsAn index system for the organisational capabilities of PMIs was developed. This index system is a scoring system that focuses on basic service capabilities, management capabilities and sustainable development capabilities, and it can determine the priority of improvement areas for PMIs.

A Novel Matrix Profile-Guided Attention LSTM Model for Forecasting COVID-19 Cases in USA

Background: The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been raging around the world for more than 1 year. Analysis of previous COVID-19 data is useful to explore its epidemic patterns. Utilizing data mining and machine learning methods for COVID-19 forecasting might provide a better insight into the trends of COVID-19 cases. This study aims to model the COVID-19 cases and perform forecasting of three important indicators of COVID-19 in the United States of America (USA), which are the adjusted percentage of daily admitted hospitalized COVID-19 cases (hospital admission), the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases (confirmed cases), and the number of daily death cases caused by COVID-19 (death cases).Materials and Methods: The actual COVID-19 data from March 1, 2020 to August 5, 2021 were obtained from Carnegie Mellon University Delphi Research Group. A novel forecasting algorithm was proposed to model and predict the three indicators. This algorithm is a hybrid of an unsupervised time series anomaly detection technique called matrix profile and an attention-based long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Several classic statistical models and the baseline recurrent neural network (RNN) models were used as the baseline models. All models were evaluated using a repeated holdout training and test strategy.Results: The proposed matrix profile-assisted attention-based LSTM model performed the best among all the compared models, which has the root mean square error (RMSE) = 1.23, 31612.81, 467.17, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.95, 26259.55, 364.02, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 0.25, 1.06, 0.55, for hospital admission, confirmed cases, and death cases, respectively.Conclusion: The proposed model is more powerful in forecasting COVID-19 cases. It can potentially aid policymakers in making prevention plans and guide health care managers to allocate health care resources reasonably.

Creating a Circular Economy in the Automotive Industry: The Contribution of Combining Crowdsourcing and Delphi Research

The circular economy (CE) is an essential societal topic of the 21st century. Although various scientific disciplines address it, many research gaps exist. The Delphi is a proven instrument for managerial decisions, which also gained importance in sustainability-oriented innovation research. Likewise, innovation processes using the input of crowds are emerging phenomena. Nevertheless, the Web of Science publication record includes a few articles applying crowdsourcing or the Delphi method to support CE-oriented management decisions only, and their further application has limitations. Addressing these gaps, this article presents an advanced concept integrating both methods to support the development of CE products and software responding to the worldwide need for more sustainable automotive products and CE solutions for tyres specifically. A combination of two-stage crowdsourcing and Delphi approaches was used, involving 509 participants from the EU member state Germany in total. This article provides, in particular, five contributions: First, it identified specific benefits of combining crowdsourcing and the Delphi method. Second, the attractiveness of a CE software system with product configuration tools is shown. Third, the interest in a quality label for sustainable tyres is unveiled. As the fourth contribution, the analyses show the importance of the CE software’s and labels’ consideration of social aspects in the tyre value chain and certain substances influencing appropriate recycling. Fifth, it represents consumers’ suggestions for products made of tyre recyclates and their interest in additional CE automotive products. The article finishes with recommendations for developing a tyre CE and applying the method combination in research and management.

Factors affecting the value revitalization of Qajar religious schools in Tehran

Nowadays, due to natural erosion and urban development, Qajar religious schools in Tehran have undergone adverse physical changes. Moreover, the semantic and intangible values of them have faded over time, such that their position in society has declined. The religious schools need the conservation and revitalization of their values. Various research has been conducted on the philosophy of education, and the spatial evolution history of Tehran’s religious schools. However, since no study has been carried out on the value revitalization of them, the present study, as an exploratory and novel study, mainly aims to experimentally investigate experts’ views to revitalize the value of Qajar religious schools in Tehran. Delphi research method and Q-type factor analysis were used to identify and classify experts’ views, respectively. Participants were selected through the purposive non-probability sampling technique. The sample size was selected to be 25, which was confirmed according to the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin test used for sampling adequacy. To collect data from experts, a questionnaire was used in three rounds based on the Delphi method. Data obtained from the questionnaires were analyzed using the Q method. Based on the obtained results, up to 73.267% of factors affecting the value revitalization of Qajar religious schools in Tehran were identified and interpreted with certainty based on interviews with the experts. The experts were divided into eight groups or factors based on their views, and seven of which introduced common variables and concepts, named based on their constituent variables. Based on the value of the coefficient of variation, the identified effective factors included climatic architecture (20.51%), resilient architecture (13.45%), spiritual architecture (8.98%), environmental aesthetics (8.12%), educational architecture (6.87%), structural architecture (6.450%), and site visiting (4.566%). It was concluded that in the value revitalization of the religious schools, paying serious attention to these seven effective factors underlies the conservation process.