Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future equatorial Atlantic and Guinean Coast rainfall

The Guinea Coast is the southern part of the West African continent. Its summer rainfall variability mostly occurs on interannual timescales and is highly influenced by the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, which is known as the Atlantic Niño (ATL3). Using historical simulations from 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we first show that these models are able to simulate reasonably well the rainfall annual cycle in the Guinea Coast, with, however, a wet bias during boreal summer. This bias is associated with too high mean summer SSTs in the eastern equatorial and south Atlantic regions. Next, we analyze the near-term, mid-term and long-term changes of the Atlantic Niño mode relative to the present-day situation, in a climate with a high anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. We find a gradual decrease of the equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies associated with the Atlantic Niño in the three periods of the future. This result reflects a possible reduction of the Atlantic Niño variability in the future due to a weakening of the Bjerkness feedback over the equatorial Atlantic. In a warmer climate, an oceanic extension of the Saharan Heat Low over the North Atlantic and an anomalous higher sea level pressure in the western equatorial Atlantic relative to the eastern equatorial Atlantic weaken the climatological trade winds over the equatorial Atlantic. As a result, the eastern equatorial Atlantic thermocline is deeper and responds less to Atlantic Niño events. Among the models that simulate a realistic rainfall pattern associated with ATL3 in the present-day climate, there are 15 GCMs which project a decrease of the Guinean Coast rainfall response related to ATL3, and 9 GCMs which show no substantial change in the patterns associated with ATL3. In these 15 models, the zonal wind response to the ATL3 over the equatorial Atlantic is strongly attenuated in the future climate. Similar results are found when the analysis is focused on the rainfall response to ATL3 over the equatorial Atlantic. There is a higher confidence in the reduction of the rainfall associated with ATL3 over the Atlantic Ocean than over the Guinea Coast. We also found a decrease of the convection associated with ATL3 in the majority of the models.

Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future Guinean coast rainfall

<p>Much of the rainfall variability in the Guinean coast area during the boreal summer is driven by the sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, amplified by land-atmosphere interactions. This oceanic region corresponds to the center of action of the Atlantic Equatorial mode, also termed Atlantic Niño (ATL3), which is the leading SST mode of variability in the tropical Atlantic basin. In years of positive ATL3, above normal SST conditions in the ATL3 area weaken the sea level pressure gradient between the West African lands and the ocean, which in turn reduces the monsoon flow penetration into Sahel. Subsequently, the rainfall increases over the Guinean coast area. According to observations and climate models, the relation between the Atlantic Niño and the rainfall in coastal Guinea is stationary over the 20<sup>th</sup> century. While this relation remains unchanged over the 21<sup>st</sup> century in climate model projections, the strength of the teleconnection is reduced in a warmer climate. The weakened ATL3 effect on the rainfall over the tropical Atlantic (in years of positive ATL3) has been attributed to the stabilization of the atmosphere column above the tropical Atlantic. Analysis of historical and high anthropogenic emission scenario (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5) simulations from 31 models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggests an additional role of the Bjerkness feedback. A weakened SST amplitude related to ATL3 positive phases reduces the anomalous westerlies, which in turn increases the upwelling cooling effect on the sea surface. Both the Guinean coast region and the equatorial Atlantic experiment the projected rainfall reduction associated with ATL3, with a higher confidence over the ocean than over the coastal lands.</p>

Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in West Africa and Teleconnections with Remote Indices

Extreme precipitation is a great concern for West Africa country, as it has serious consequence on key socio-economic activities. We use high resolution data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation Stations (CHIRPS) to determine the spatial variability, trend of 8 extreme precipitation indices in West Africa and their relationship to remote indices. Spatial variability of extreme is characterized by maximum precipitation over the orographic regions, and in southern Sahel. The trend analysis shows a decrease of dry condition in Sahel and Sahara, and an increase tendency of wet indices over western Sahel and southern Sahel. The correlation analysis reveals that extreme precipitation in Sahel is strongly teleconnected to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS), whereas western and western-north Sahel is associated with both Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), Maiden Julian Oscillation phase 8 (MJO8), El Niño 3.4 index (NINO.3.4), and Trans-Atlantic-Pacific Ocean Dipole Index (TAPODI) but with different characteristics or directions. Guinean coast extreme precipitation is highly associated with Atlantic zone 3 SST anomaly (ATL3), Northern Cold Tongue Index (NCTI), TAPODI but also with an opposite sign with NINO.3.4 and in somewhat with the MJO8.

Conceptual model of diurnal cycle of low-level stratiform clouds over southern West Africa

The DACCIWA (Dynamics Aerosol Chemistry Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project and the associated ground-based field experiment, which took place during summer 2016, provided a comprehensive dataset on the low-level stratiform clouds (LLSCs), which develop almost every night over southern West Africa. The LLSCs, inaccurately represented in climate and weather forecasts, form in the monsoon flow during the night and break up during the following morning or afternoon, affecting considerably the radiation budget. Several published studies give an overview of the measurements during the campaign, analyse the dynamical features in which the LLSCs develop, and quantify the processes involved in the LLSC formation. Based on the main results of these studies and new analyses, we propose in this paper a conceptual model of the diurnal cycle of the LLSCs over southern West Africa. Four main phases compose the diurnal cycle of the LLSC. The stable and the jet phases are the two steps during which the relative humidity increases, due to cooling of the air, until the air is saturated and the LLSCs form. Horizontal advection of cold air from the Guinean coast by the maritime inflow and the nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ) represents 50 % of the local total cooling. The remaining half is mainly due to divergence of net radiation and turbulence flux. The third step of the LLSC diurnal cycle is the stratus phase, which starts during the night and lasts until the onset of surface-buoyancy-driven turbulence on the following day. During the stratus phase, interactions between the LLSCs and the NLLJ lead to a modification of the wind speed vertical profile in the cloud layer, and a mixing of the sub-cloud layer by shear-driven turbulence below the NLLJ core. The breakup of the LLSC occurs during the convective phase and follows three different scenarios which depend on the intensity of the turbulence observed during the night in the sub-cloud layer. The breakup time has a considerable impact on the energy balance of the Earth's surface and, consequently, on the depth of the convective boundary layer, which could vary by a factor of 2 from day-to-day.

Conceptual model of diurnal cycle of stratiform low-level clouds over southern West Africa

DACCIWA (Dynamics Aerosol Chemistry Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project and the associated ground-based field experiment, which took place during the summer 2016, provided a comprehensive dataset on the low-level stratiform clouds (LLC) which develop almost every night over southern West Africa. The LLC, inaccurately represented in the climate and weather forecasts, form in the monsoon flow during the night and break up the day after, affecting considerably the radiation budget. The DACCIWA field experiment dataset supports several published studies which give an overview of the measurements during the campaign, analyze the dynamical features in which the LLC develop, and quantify the processes involved in the LLC formation. Based on the main results of these studies and new analyses, we propose in this paper a conceptual model of the diurnal cycle of the LLC over southern West Africa. Four main phases compose the diurnal cycle of the LLC. The stable and the jet phases are the two steps during which the relative humidity increases, due to the cooling of the air, until the air is saturated and the LLC form. The horizontal advection of cold air from the Guinean coast by the maritime inflow and the nocturnal low level jet (NLLJ) represents 50 % of the total cooling. The remaining half is mainly due to divergence of net radiation and turbulence flux. The third step of the LLC diurnal cycle is the stratus phase which starts during the night and lasts until the onset of buoyancy driven turbulence on the following day. During the stratus phase, interactions between the LLC and NLLJ imply a modification of the wind speed vertical profile in the cloud layer, and a mixing of the subcloud layer by shear-driven turbulence below the NLLJ core. The breakup of the LLC occurs during the convective phase and can follow three different scenarios which depend on the intensity of the shear-driven turbulence observed during the night. The breakup time has a considerable impact on the energy balance of the Earth's surface and, consequently, on the depth of the convective boundary layer, which could vary by a factor of two from day-to-day.

A Nonlinear Response of Sahel Rainfall to Atlantic Warming

The response over West Africa to uniform warming of the Atlantic Ocean is analyzed using idealized simulations with a regional climate model. With warming of 1 and 1.5 K, rainfall rates increase by 30%–50% over most of West Africa. With Atlantic warming of 2 K and higher, coastal precipitation increases but Sahel rainfall decreases substantially. This nonlinear response in Sahel rainfall is the focus of this analysis. Atlantic warming is accompanied by decreases in low-level geopotential heights in the Gulf of Guinea and in the large-scale meridional geopotential height gradient. This leads to easterly wind anomalies in the central Sahel. With Atlantic warming below 2 K, these easterly anomalies support moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and precipitation increases. With Atlantic warming over 2 K, the easterly anomalies reverse the westerly flow over the Sahel. The resulting dry air advection into the Sahel reduces precipitation. Increased low-level moisture provides moist static energy to initiate convection with Atlantic warming at 1.5 K and below, while decreased moisture and stable thermal profiles suppress convection with additional warming. In all simulations, the southerly monsoon flow onto the Guinean coast is maintained and precipitation in that region increases. The relevance of these results to the global warming problem is limited by the focus on Atlantic warming alone. However, confident prediction of climate change requires an understanding of the physical processes of change, and this paper contributes to that goal.