Development of a Semi-analytical Dynamic Thrust Force Model

A moving water mass generates force which is exerted on its moving path. Cyclone generated storm surge or earthquake generated tsunami are specific examples of moving water mass the generates force along the coasts. In addition to human lives, these moving water masses cause severe damages to the coastal infrastructure due to tremendous force exerted on these structures. To assess the damage on these infrastructures, an essential parameter is the resultant force exerted on these structures. To evaluate the damages, there is hardly any quantitative method available to compute this force. In this paper we have developed a semi-analytical model, named as Dynamic Force Model (DFM), by using Variational Iteration Method to compute this force. As governing equations, we have used the Saint Venant equations which are basically 1D shallow water equations derived from the Navier-Stokes equations. The verified, calibrated and validated DFM is applied in Bangladesh coastal zone to compute dynamic thrust force due to tropical cyclone SIDR.

Impacts of cyclone and flood on crop and fish production in disaster prone coastal Bhola district of Bangladesh

This study assessed the impact of climate change induced disaster on crops and fisheries production at Bhola Sadar and Monpura upazila of Bhola district, Bangladesh during January to June 2018. The study was gathered primary data from primary observation (PO), questionnaire survey (QS), focus group discussion (FGD), and key informant interview (KII). Secondary data were collected from Upazila Agricultural Office and Upazila Fisheries Office of Bhola Sadar and Manpura upazila and moreover, climatic data were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Results of the study found that trend analysis indicates overall annual maximum temperature increased for Kharif-I, Kharif-II and Rabi season. Average annual minimum temperature also increased for Kharif-I season but decreased for Kharif-II and Rabi season. Study also found that for all cropping season average relative humidity was increased. Annual average rainfall exhibited decreasing trend for Kharif-I and Rabi season but increased for Kharif-II season in (1990-2019) time period. The Aus, T. Aman, Boro and Mung bean was dominant cropping pattern in Kharif-I, Kharif- II and Rabi season in Bhola district. Overall, Aus rice production in Kharif-I season increased but in 2009, 2013 production was decreased because of cyclone Aila (2009) and Cyclone Mahasen (2013). T. Aman production hampered due to Cyclone Sidr (2007) and flood (2014) in Kharif-II season. In Rabi season Boro rice production lessen because of low rainfall and salinity intrusion. Overall, Mung bean production increase but in 2008 and 2009 production become hampered due to late cultivation because of Cyclone Sidr (2007). Fish production rate increase in Bhola specially Hilsha fish because of non-climatic factor like raid in non-fishing time, banned current net but fish production in pond become diminished due to infrequent natural disaster. Practicing of salt and flood tolerant varieties, floating bed vegetable cultivation, and mixed cropping system (mainly for Rabi season), enhanced expedition activities against catching mother Ilish in prohibition period, dredging in the heart of the river which can eventually reduce vulnerabilities and increase crop and fish production in the Bhola region. Int. J. Agril. Res. Innov. Tech. 10(1): 40-55, June 2020

Value of the Storm-Protection Function of Sundarban Mangroves in Bangladesh

Globally mangrove forests are among the most severely threatened ecosystems. The protection value of mangrove forests is important for policy makers as a means of increasing forestation in coastal areas. Only a few economic studies have estimated the protective value of mangrove ecosystems. None have estimated the value of this service in the Sundarban of Bangladesh. In this study, we estimated the economic value of storm-protection services of the Sundarban Reserve Forest during cyclone Sidr in 2007 by valuing and comparing the economic damage and losses of households at two sites (i.e., near the Sundarban and far from the Sundarban). In total, 1,525 households from 9 upazillas (sub-districts) were sampled, all located within 1 km distance of the embankment. Applying the Damage-Cost-Avoided (DCA) method, the storm-protection value of the Sundarban is estimated at USD 543.30 million. The estimated value of the damage cost avoided per household (as of 2015 consumer price) also implies that the installation of a one-km width of intact mangrove forest can save USD 396 to each household during cyclones and storm surges. Conservation and restoration of the ecological status of Sundarban is, therefore, urgently needed for the continued existence and sustainable use of Sundarban’s ecosystem services in the long term.

QARD-AL-HASSAN AS A TOOL FOR POVERTY ALLEVIATION A CASE OF FAEL KHAIR WAQF PROGRAM IN BANGLADESH

Islamic economic system centrally focuses on socioeconomic justice and overall welfare of the society especially the bottom of the pyramid segment. Qard-al-Hassan, alongside zakat and sadaqah, is one of the instruments of redistribution of income and wealth from the rich to the poor in Islam. In 2007, Bangladesh struck by super cyclone SIDR, leaving 3,406 people dead. Moreover, the SIDR caused unprecedented damage to homes, crops and livelihoods. Fael Khair Waqf (FKW) Program came as a response to the urgent need for assisting the victims of SIDR which initiated an interest-free micro-loan (Qard-al-Hassan) scheme to restore the livelihoods of a large segment of victims and to uplift them from poverty. While investigating the effectiveness of Qard-al-Hassan in poverty reduction, this paper has examined FKW program as a case. This study conducted an analysis on 1600 households using independent sample t-test and logistic regression to investigate to what extent FKW program has been effective in reducing poverty. The finding of the logistic analysis is that the probability of being poor for FKW participants is around 1.46 times lower than the non-participants. Moreover, Qard-al-Hassan of FKW lowers the cost of borrowing significantly and hence the participants can accumulate more assets which might help them to improve their economic status after the cyclone. Overall, the effectiveness of this program implies that the development practitioners and researchers should promote the outreach of Qard-al-Hassan so that extreme poor can easily avail the services.

Exploring the heterogeneity in the cyclone evacuation decision in the context of developing economy: A case study of costal Bangladesh

The critical role of evacuation, particularly for the communities in developing countries exposed to cyclones, has only been realized after some disastrous evacuation experiences in recent cyclones. A profound understanding of the factors influencing the evacuation behavior is necessary to reduce the loss of lives, especially in the cyclone prone communities. The purpose of this research is to identify the key factors influencing households’ evacuation decision during a cyclone in developing economies. To this end, the research employs state of the art discrete choice modeling techniques referred to as mixed logit models. The study builds on the data collected in 1991 from the coastal areas of Bangladesh following the cyclone Sidr. The analysis result reveals that the evacuees of developing countries like Bangladesh resort to nearby tall buildings during cyclone due to the insufficient facilities provided by the cyclone centers. In case of mandatory evacuation and for temporary house owner, the households’ decision to evacuate is found to be uniform. However, significant heterogeneity is found in the households’ decision to evacuate whenever they receive a voluntary notice and also if they live sufficiently far from the sea shore. The factors that are identified to be influencing households’ evacuation decision during a cyclone will enable potential evacuees to better evaluate their decision and consequently make more informed decision about the timing as well as the necessity of evacuation. The analysis result will also help emergency managers to decide on the timing and the type of evacuation orders they need to provide for reducing causalities due to landfall caused by cyclones.

Warning systems as social processes for Bangladesh cyclones

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to connect the theoretical idea of warning systems as social processes with empirical data of people’s perceptions of and actions for warning for cyclones in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach A case study approach is used in two villages of Khulna district in southwest Bangladesh: Kalabogi and Kamarkhola. In total, 60 households in each village were surveyed with structured questionnaires regarding how they receive their cyclone warning information as well as their experiences of warnings for Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and Cyclone Aila in 2009. Findings People in the two villages had a high rate of receiving cyclone warnings and accepted them as being credible. They also experienced high impacts from the cyclones. Yet evacuation rates to cyclone shelters were low. They did not believe that significant cyclone damage would affect them and they also highlighted the difficulty of getting to cyclone shelters due to poor roads, leading them to prefer other evacuation options which were implemented if needed. Originality/value Theoretical constructs of warning systems, such as the First Mile and late warning, are rarely examined empirically according to people’s perceptions of warnings. The case study villages have not before been researched with respect to warning systems. The findings provide empirical evidence for long-established principles of warning systems as social processes, usually involving but not relying on technical components.