scholarly journals The representation of winds in the lower troposphere in ECMWF forecasts and reanalyses during the EUREC4A field campaign

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Carlo Maria Savazzi ◽  
Louise Nuijens ◽  
Irina Sandu ◽  
Geet George ◽  
Peter Bechtold
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Convective Momentum Transport

Abstract. The characterization of systematic forecast errors in lower-tropospheric winds over the ocean is a primary need for reforming models. Winds are among the drivers of convection, thus an accurate representation of winds is essential for better convective parameterizations. We focus on the temporal variability and vertical distribution of lower-tropospheric wind biases in operational medium-range weather forecasts and ERA5 reanalyses produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Thanks to several sensitivity experiments and an unprecedented wealth of measurements from the 2020 EUREC4A field campaign, we show that the wind bias varies greatly from day to day, resulting in RSME's up to 2.5 m s−1, with a mean wind speed bias up to −1 m s−1 near and above the trade-inversion in the forecasts and up to −0.5 m s−1 in reanalyses. The modeled zonal and meridional wind exhibit a too strong diurnal cycle, leading to a weak wind speed bias everywhere up to 5 km during daytime, turning into a too strong wind speed bias below 2 km at nighttime. The biases are fairly insensitive to the assimilation of sondes and likely related to remote convection and large scale pressure gradients. Convective momentum transport acts to distribute biases throughout the lowest 1.5 km, whereas at higher levels, other unresolved or dynamical tendencies play a role in setting the bias. Below 1 km, modelled friction due to unresolved physical processes appears too strong, but is (partially) compensated by dynamical tendencies, making this a challenging coupled problem.

scholarly journals The Temporal Autocorrelation Structure of Sea Surface Winds

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6684-6700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam H. Monahan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Wind Component ◽  
Temporal Autocorrelation ◽  
Vector Wind

Abstract The temporal autocorrelation structures of sea surface vector winds and wind speeds are considered. Analyses of scatterometer and reanalysis wind data demonstrate that the autocorrelation functions (acf) of surface zonal wind, meridional wind, and wind speed generally drop off more rapidly in the midlatitudes than in the low latitudes. Furthermore, the meridional wind component and wind speed generally decorrelate more rapidly than the zonal wind component. The anisotropy in vector wind decorrelation scales is demonstrated to be most pronounced in the storm tracks and near the equator, and to be a feature of winds throughout the depth of the troposphere. The extratropical anisotropy is interpreted in terms of an idealized kinematic eddy model as resulting from differences in the structure of wind anomalies in the directions along and across eddy paths. The tropical anisotropy is interpreted in terms of the kinematics of large-scale equatorial waves and small-scale convection. Modeling the vector wind fluctuations as Gaussian, an explicit expression for the wind speed acf is obtained. This model predicts that the wind speed acf should decay more rapidly than that of at least one component of the vector winds. Furthermore, the model predicts a strong dependence of the wind speed acf on the ratios of the means of vector wind components to their standard deviations. These model results are shown to be broadly consistent with the relationship between the acf of vector wind components and wind speed, despite the presence of non-Gaussian structure in the observed surface vector winds.

scholarly journals A regional real-time forecast of marine boundary layers during VOCALS-REx

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 421-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wang ◽  
L. W. O'Neill ◽  
Q. Jiang ◽  
S. P. de Szoeke ◽  
X. Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Marine Boundary Layer ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Strong Wind

Abstract. This paper presents an evaluation and validation of the Naval Research Laboratory's COAMPS® real-time forecasts during the VOCALS-REx over the area off the west coast of Chile/Peru in the Southeast Pacific during October and November 2008. The analyses focus on the marine boundary layer (MBL) structure. These forecasts are compared with lower troposphere soundings, in situ surface measurements, and satellite observations. The predicted mean MBL cloud and surface wind spatial distributions are in good agreement with the satellite observations. The large-scale longitudinal variation of the MBL structure along 20° S is captured by the forecasts. That is, the MBL height increases westward toward the open ocean, the moisture just above the inversion decreases, and the MBL structure becomes more decoupled offshore. The observed strong wind shear across the cloud-top inversion near 20° S was correctly predicted by the model. The model's cloud spatial and temporal distribution in the 15 km grid mesh is sporadic compared to satellite observations. Our results suggest that this is caused by grid-scale convection likely due to a lack of a shallow cumulus convection parameterization in the model. Both observations and model forecasts show wind speed maxima near the top of MBL along 20° S, which is consistent with the westward upslope of the MBL heights based on the thermal wind relationship. The forecasts produced well-defined diurnal variations in the spatially-averaged MBL structure, although the overall signal is weaker than those derived from the in situ measurements and satellite data. The MBL heights are generally underpredicted in the nearshore area. An analysis of the sensitivity of the MBL height to horizontal and vertical grid resolution suggests that the underprediction is likely associated with overprediction of the mesoscale downward motion and cold advection near the coast.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Convective Vortex Formation in a Weakly Sheared Moist Neutral Environment

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (5) ◽  
pp. 1443-1466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Conzemius ◽  
Richard W. Moore ◽  
Michael T. Montgomery ◽  
Christopher A. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Tangential Velocity ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Vortex

Abstract Idealized simulations of a diabatic Rossby vortex (DRV) in an initially moist neutral baroclinic environment are performed using the fifth-generation National Center for Atmospheric Research–Pennsylvania State University (NCAR–PSU) Mesoscale Model (MM5). The primary objective is to test the hypothesis that the formation and maintenance of midlatitude warm-season mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are largely influenced by balanced flow dynamics associated with a vortex that interacts with weak vertical shear. As a part of this objective, the simulated DRV is placed within the context of the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) field campaign by comparing its tangential velocity, radius of maximum winds, CAPE, and shear with the MCVs observed in BAMEX. The simulations reveal two distinct scales of development. At the larger scale, the most rapidly growing moist baroclinic mode is excited, and exponential growth of this mode occurs during the simulation. Embedded within the large-scale baroclinic wave is a convective system exhibiting the characteristic DRV development, with a positive potential vorticity (PV) anomaly in the lower troposphere and a negative PV anomaly in the upper troposphere, and the positive/negative PV doublet tilted downshear with height. The DRV warm-air advection mechanism is active, and the resulting deep convection helps to reinforce the DRV against the deleterious effects of environmental shear, causing an eastward motion of the convective system as a whole. The initial comparisons between the simulated DRVs and the BAMEX MCVs show that the simulated DRVs grew within background conditions of CAPE and shear similar to those observed for BAMEX MCVs and suggest that the same dynamical mechanisms are active. Because the BAMEX field campaign sampled MCVs in different backgrounds of CAPE and shear, the comparison also demonstrates the need to perform additional simulations to explore these different CAPE and shear regimes and to understand their impacts on the intensity and longevity of MCVs. Such a study has the additional benefit of placing MCV dynamics in an appropriate context for exploring their relevance to tropical cyclone formation.

Four Years of Tropical ERA-40 Vorticity Maxima Tracks. Part I: Climatology and Vertical Vorticity Structure

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (11) ◽  
pp. 4301-4319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon Kerns ◽  
Kantave Greene ◽  
Edward Zipser
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Cloud Clusters ◽  
Geographical Separation ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Strong Gradient ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Vorticity Structure

Abstract Using the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40), vorticity maxima (VM) have been manually tracked and classified as developing and nondeveloping. The VM are identified on Hovmöller plots for June–October 1998–2001, within 0°–35°N, 140°–10°W. Over 600 low-level and midlevel VM are tracked. The ERA-40 VM track climatology compares favorably with previous knowledge about easterly waves. Some new results have also been found. The VM are not equivalent to easterly waves, so it is important to distinguish between the large-scale wave and the embedded VM. Unlike waves, individual VM leaving Africa generally do not survive to cross the entire Atlantic. Unlike waves, which can cross Central America, most individual east Pacific VM originate in the east Pacific. Genesis productivity is defined as the fraction of nontropical cyclone VM that eventually develop. It reaches 50% in the eastern North Pacific (EPAC) and 30% in the Atlantic, where there is geographical separation between the locations of maximum nondeveloping and pregenesis track density. There is a strong gradient in daily genesis potential (DGP) near 10°N, associated with weaker upper-level anticyclonic vorticity equatorward of 10°N. The maximum genesis productivity is obtained north of 10°N, where the upper-anticyclonic vorticity and DGP are higher. Finally, there is no obvious distinction in VM strength between developing VM prior to genesis and nondeveloping VM. A major factor is the minimum vorticity threshold for VM as opposed to cloud clusters.

scholarly journals Predictability of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Storm Downstream of the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Helene (2006)

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (6) ◽  
pp. 1943-1962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian P. Pantillon ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau ◽  
Patrick J. Mascart ◽  
Christine Lac
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Synoptic Situation ◽  
British Isles ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Medium Range

Abstract The extratropical transition (ET) of a tropical cyclone is known as a source of forecast uncertainty that can propagate far downstream. The present study focuses on the predictability of a Mediterranean tropical-like storm (Medicane) on 26 September 2006 downstream of the ET of Hurricane Helene from 22 to 25 September. While the development of the Medicane was missed in the deterministic forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) initialized before and during ET, it was contained in the ECMWF ensemble forecasts in more than 10% of the 50 members up to 108-h lead time. The 200 ensemble members initialized at 0000 UTC from 20 to 23 September were clustered into two nearly equiprobable scenarios after the synoptic situation over the Mediterranean. In the first and verifying scenario, Helene was steered northeastward by an upstream trough during ET and contributed to the building of a downstream ridge. A trough elongated farther downstream toward Italy and enabled the development of the Medicane in 9 of 102 members. In the second and nonverifying scenario, Helene turned southeastward during ET and the downstream ridge building was reduced. A large-scale low over the British Isles dominated the circulation in Europe and only 1 of 98 members forecasted the Medicane. The two scenarios resulted from a different phasing between Helene and the upstream trough. Sensitivity experiments performed with the Méso-NH model further revealed that initial perturbations targeted on Helene and the upstream trough were sufficient in forecasting the warm-core Medicane at 84- and 108-h lead time.

scholarly journals An update on global atmospheric ice estimates from satellite observations and reanalyses

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Ian Duncan ◽  
Patrick Eriksson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Current State ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Ice Water ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract. This study assesses the global distribution of mean atmospheric ice mass from current state-of-the-art estimates and its variability on daily and seasonal timescales. Ice water path (IWP) retrievals from active and passive satellite platforms are compared and analysed against estimates from two reanalysis datasets, ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5) and MERRA-2 (Modern-era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications 2). Large discrepancies in IWP exist between the satellite datasets themselves, making validation of the model results problematic and indicating that progress towards consensus on the distribution of atmospheric ice has been limited. Comparing the datasets, zonal means of IWP exhibit similar shapes but differing magnitudes. Diurnal analysis centred on A-Train overpasses shows homologous structures in some regions, but the degree and sign of the variability varies widely; the reanalyses exhibit noisier and higher amplitude diurnal variability than borne out by the satellite estimates. Spatial structures governed by the atmospheric general circulation are fairly consistent across the datasets, as principal component analysis shows that the patterns of seasonal variability line up well between the datasets but disagree in severity. These results underscore the limitations of the current Earth observing system with respect to atmospheric ice, as the level of consensus between observations is mixed. The large-scale variability of IWP is relatively consistent, whereas disagreements on diurnal variability and global means point to varying microphysical assumptions in retrievals and models alike that seem to underlie the biggest differences.

Improvement of Medium-Range Forecasts Using the Analog-Dynamical Method

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (4) ◽  
pp. 1570-1587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haipeng Yu ◽  
Jianping Huang ◽  
Jifan Chou
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Systematic Correction ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Dynamical Method ◽  
Height Fields

Abstract This study further develops the analog-dynamical method and applies it to medium-range weather forecasts. By regarding the forecast field as a small disturbance superimposed on historical analog fields, historical analog errors can be used to estimate and correct forecast errors. This method is applied to 10-day forecasts from the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). Both the distribution of atmospheric circulation and the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) are considered in choosing the analog samples from a historical dataset for 2001–10 based on NCEP Final (FNL) data. The results demonstrate that the analog-dynamical method greatly reduces forecast errors and extends the period of validity of the global 500-hPa height field by 0.8 days, which is superior to results obtained using systematic correction. The correction effect at 500 hPa is increasingly significant when the lead time increases. Although the analogs are selected using 500-hPa height fields, the forecast skill at all vertical levels is improved. The average increase of the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is 0.07, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is decreased by 10 gpm on average at a lead time of 10 days. The magnitude of errors for most forecast fields, such as height, temperature, and kinetic energy is decreased considerably by inverse correction. The model improvement is primarily a result of improvement for planetary-scale waves, while the correction for synoptic-scale waves does not affect model forecast skill. As this method is easy to operate and transport to other sophisticated models, it could be appropriate for operational use.

scholarly journals Global characteristics of the westward-propagating quasi-16-day wave with zonal wavenumber 1 and the connection with the 2012/2013 SSW revealed by ERA-Interim

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Li ◽  
Chunming Huang ◽  
Shaodong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Local Source ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Sudden Warming ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
One Year

AbstractWe analyze global characteristics of the westward-propagating quasi-16-day wave (Q16DW) with zonal wavenumber 1 (W1) in the troposphere and stratosphere using zonal wind, meridional wind, vertical velocity, temperature, geopotential, and potential vorticity data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis during one year from December 2012 to November 2013. The amplitudes of the W1 Q16DW are larger in the stratosphere than in the troposphere, and remarkable amplitudes are found at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). More detailed analyses on the temporal variation in the W1 Q16DW show that this wave is significantly enhanced during the 2012/2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) event, and the strong wave most likely provides additional forcing on the splitting of the displaced polar vortex. Analysis of the Eliassen–Palm flux (EP flux) and its divergence of the interaction between W1 Q16DW and quasi-stationary planetary waves with wavenumber 1 during the 2012/2013 SSW event reveals that it causes an upward heat flux and exerts a westward acceleration on the background winds, indicating that this interaction plays an important role in the eastward stratospheric jet reversal. Moreover, the wave is amplified in the occurrence region of barotropic and/or baroclinic instability, suggesting a local source of the growing W1 Q16DW during this SSW event.

scholarly journals Potential vorticity dynamics of life cycles of blocked weather regimes in the Euro-Atlantic region: A diagnostic framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seraphine Hauser ◽  
Christian M. Grams ◽  
Michael Riemer ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
Franziska Teubler
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
Medium Range

<p>Quasi-stationary, persistent, and recurrent states of the large-scale extratropical circulation, so-called weather regimes, characterize the atmospheric variability on sub-seasonal timescales of several days to a few weeks. Weather regimes featuring a blocking anticyclone are of particular interest due to their long lifetime and potential for high-impact weather. However, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and climate models struggle to correctly represent blocking life cycles, which results in large forecast errors at the medium-range to sub-seasonal timescale. Despite progress in recent years, we are still lacking a process-based conceptual understanding of blocked regime dynamics, which hinders a better representation of blocks in numerical models. In particular the relative contributions of dry and moist processes in the onset and maintenance of a block remain unclear.</p><p>Here we aim to revisit the dynamics of blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region. To this end we investigate the life cycles of blocked weather regimes from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective in ERA5 reanalysis data (from 1979 to present) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We develop a diagnostic PV framework that allows the tracking of negative PV anomalies associated with blocked weather regimes. Complemented by piecewise PV-tendencies - separated into advective and diabatic PV tendencies - we are able to disentangle different physical processes affecting the amplitude evolution of negative PV anomalies associated with blocked regimes. Most importantly, this approach newly enables us to distinguish between the roles of dry and moist dynamics in the initiation and maintenance of blocked weather regimes in a common framework. A first application demonstrates the functionality of the developed PV framework and corroborates the importance of moist-diabatic processes in the initiation and maintenance of a block in a regime life cycle. </p>

scholarly journals How much snow falls in the world's mountains? A first look at mountain snowfall estimates in A-train observations and reanalyses

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 3195-3207
Author(s):  
Anne Sophie Daloz ◽  
Marian Mateling ◽  
Tristan L'Ecuyer ◽  
Mark Kulie ◽  
Norm B. Wood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Cloud Radar ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
America South ◽  
Alpine Environments ◽  
Modern Era ◽  
Factor Governing

Abstract. CloudSat estimates that 1773 km3 of snow falls, on average, each year over the world's mountains. This amounts to 5 % of the global snowfall accumulations. This study synthetizes mountain snowfall estimates over the four continents containing mountains (Eurasia, North America, South America and Africa), comparing snowfall estimates from a new satellite cloud-radar-based dataset to those from four widely used reanalyses: Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), MERRA-2, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Globally, the fraction of snow that falls in the world's mountains is very similar between all these independent datasets (4 %–5 %), providing confidence in this estimate. The fraction of snow that falls in the mountains compared to the continent as a whole is also very similar between the different datasets. However, the total of snow that falls globally and over each continent – the critical factor governing freshwater availability in these regions – varies widely between datasets. The consensus in fractions and the dissimilarities in magnitude could indicate that large-scale forcings may be similar in the five datasets, while local orographic enhancements at smaller scales may not be captured. This may have significant implications for our ability to diagnose regional trends in snowfall and its impacts on snowpack in rapidly evolving alpine environments.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document