Relationships between empirical damage and direct/indirect costs for the assessment of seismic loss scenarios

The definition of relationships between damage and losses is a crucial aspect for the prediction of seismic effects and the development of reliable models to define risk maps, loss scenarios and mitigation strategies. The paper focuses on the analysis of post-earthquake empirical data to define relationships between buildings’ damage expressed as usability rating or as global damage state and the associated costs for repair (i.e. direct costs) or for population assistance (i.e. a part of total indirect costs). The analysis refers to the data collected on residential buildings damaged by 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. For different usability rating or damage states, the paper presents the costs expressed in terms of percentage with respect to the reference unit cost of a new building (%Cr and %Ca for repair and population assistance costs, respectively). In particular, the costs analysis refers to undamaged, lightly or severely damaged buildings classified according to usability rating (i.e. A, B-C or E according to Italian classification) or to five different global Damage States (DSs). DSs comply with European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) and derive from literature available matrices properly defined to convert empirical damage to structural and non-structural components into building global damage. The %Cr probability density functions and relevant statistics derive from the analysis of actual data of post-earthquake reconstruction process, while, to determine those related to %Ca, a deep analysis of population assistance types, person/month assistance cost for each assistance form, and a methodology to associate such costs to each building are herein presented and discussed. Finally, the paper presents a relationship calibrated on empirical data to directly correlate repair costs on a building with assistance costs to their occupants. The relationships between empirical damage and direct and indirect costs herein presented are of paramount importance because they allow reliable loss scenarios to be defined by simply using literature fragility curves (defined according to empirical or mechanical approaches) aimed at evaluating the probability of exceeding different usability rating or damage states of existing buildings.

Cost and Effectiveness of Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Solutions for the Large-Scale Mitigation of Seismic Risk in Reinforced Concrete Buildings

Recent seismic events have demonstrated that the high vulnerability of existing reinforced concrete (RC) buildings is mainly due to a lack of proper seismic detailing and the employment of poor-quality concrete. The reconstruction process following the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake highlighted that strengthening these buildings using solutions based on fiber-reinforced polymers (FRPs) can be both efficient and cost-effective. Indeed, their light weight, ease of installation, and the availability of specific guidelines and standards strongly supported their use in design practices, where they were the strengthening technique employed the most. This paper analyses and discusses the data on the actual cost and effectiveness of FRP solutions for seismic strengthening of existing RC buildings. To this end, the large database relating to the L’Aquila reconstruction process was used to select 130 RC buildings strengthened with FRP systems or FRPs combined with other techniques. Details of direct costs, including at the member level, and the types and percentages of strengthened members are analysed for both local and global strategies. This study thus provides readers with valuable data for use in cost-benefit analyses of FRP systems schemes to mitigate seismic risk at large-scale.

Between Necessity and Legal Responsibility: The Development of EEWS in Italy and its International Framework

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWSs) represent a technical-scientific challenge aimed at improving the chance of the population exposed to the earthquake shaking of surviving or being less affected. The ability of an EEWS to affect the risk and, in particular, vulnerability and exposure, may determine serious legal responsibilities for people involved in the system, as scientists and experts. The main question concerns, in fact, the relationship between EEWSs and the predictability and avoidability of earthquake effects-i.e., the ground shaking affecting citizens and infrastructures - and the possibility for people to adopt self-protective behavior and/or for industrial infrastructures to be secured. In Italy, natural disasters, such as the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, teach us that the relationship between science and law is really difficult. So, before EEW’s become operational in Italy, it is necessary to: 1) examine the legislative and technical solutions adopted by some of the international legal systems in countries where this service is offered to citizens; 2) reconstruct the international and European regulatory framework that promotes the introduction of EW systems as life-saving tools for the protection of the right to life and understand whether and how these regulatory texts can impose an obligation on the Italian legal system to develop EEWS; 3) understand what responsibilities could be ascribed to the scientists and technicians responsible for managing EEWS in Italy, analyzing the different impact of vulnerability and exposure on the predictability and avoidability of the harmful event; 4) reflect on the lessons that our legal system will have to learn from other Countries when implementing EEW systems. In order to find appropriate solutions, it is essential to reflect on the opportunity to provide shared and well-structured protocols and creating detailed disclaimers clearly defining the limits of the service. A central role must be recognized to education, because people should not only expect to receive a correct alarm but must be able to understand the uncertainties involved in rapid estimates, be prepared to face the risk, and react in the right way.

Relationships Between Empirical Damage and Direct/Indirect Costs for the Assessment of Seismic Loss Scenarios

The definition of relationships between damage and losses is a crucial aspect for the prediction of seismic effects and the development of reliable models to define risk maps, loss scenarios and mitigation strategies. The paper focuses on the analysis of post-earthquake empirical data to define relationships between buildings’ damage expressed as usability rating or as global damage state and the associated costs for repair (i.e. direct costs) or for population assistance (i.e. a part of total indirect costs). The analysis refers to the data collected on residential buildings damaged by 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. For different usability rating or damage states, the paper presents the costs expressed in terms of percentage with respect to the reference unit cost of a new building (%Cr and %Ca for repair and population assistance costs, respectively). In particular, the costs analysis refers to undamaged, lightly or severely damaged buildings classified according to usability rating (i.e. A, B-C or E according to Italian classification) or to five different global Damage States (DSs). DSs comply with European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) and derive from literature available matrices properly defined to convert empirical damage to structural and non-structural components into building global damage. The %Cr probability density functions and relevant statistics derive from the analysis of actual data of post-earthquake reconstruction process, while, to determine those related to %Ca, a deep analysis of population assistance types, person/month assistance cost for each assistance form, and a methodology to associate such costs to each building are herein presented and discussed. Finally the paper presents a relationship calibrated on empirical data to directly correlate repair costs on a building with assistance costs to their occupants.The relationships between empirical damage and direct and indirect costs herein presented are of paramount importance because they allow reliable loss scenarios to be defined by simply using literature fragility curves (defined according to empirical or mechanical approaches) aimed at evaluating the probability of exceeding different usability rating or damage states of existing buildings.

Evolution of the seismic vulnerability of masonry buildings based on the damage data from L'Aquila 2009 event

The purpose of this study is the analysis of vulnerability trends, with particular emphasis to the evolution of the seismic behaviour of masonry buildings over the years due to the improvements in construction practices and to the enhancement of building materials over the years, also related to the subsequent enactment of seismic prescriptions. To this aim, residential masonry buildings damaged after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake are considered, coming from the online platform Da.D.O. (Database di Danno Osservato, Database of Observed Damage) recently released from the Italian Department of Civil Protection. General features of all the parameters available from the original database are thoroughly analysed, a selection of which is used for vulnerability analysis, namely the period of construction and the design type, the presence of structural interventions, the type of horizontal structure. Vulnerability curves are obtained through an optimization technique, minimizing the deviation between observed and predicted damage. PGA from ShakeMap is used for ground motion characterization. Damage levels defined according to the European Macroseismic Scale are considered, obtained from the observed damage for vertical structures collected during the inspections. Vulnerability curves are firstly obtained as a function of period of construction and horizontal structural types, limited to the irregular layout and bad quality vertical type only, highlighting their clear influence on seismic behaviour. Lastly, the effectiveness of retrofit intervention is evaluated comparing the vulnerability curves for strengthened masonry buildings compared to those not subjected to any retrofit interventions.

Fault motion reversals predating the Mw 6.3 2009 L'Aquila earthquake: insights from synthetic aperture radar data

The millimetre accuracy of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements and related multi-temporal data analyses provide fundamental information on surface displacements caused by strong earthquakes. The multi-temporal analysis of SAR interferometry data allows for the geometry, kinematics and temporal behaviour of earthquake-generating faults to be better constrained, and is being acknowledged as a promising technique in the field of earthquake precursors. We used SAR data obtained by multi-temporal interferometric techniques such as Permanent Scatterers (PS) interferometry for the investigation of pre- to post-seismic ground displacements in the region struck by the Mw 6.3, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. We analysed Europen Remote Sensing (ERS) and Envisat PS-datasets from ascending and descending orbits, and COSMO-SkyMed PS-datasets from descending orbit, collectively covering a > 20 year long time span. On a yearly scale, a reversal of motions that affected the hanging-wall and footwall blocks of the earthquake-generating fault is detected. In particular, the hanging-wall block is characterized by pre-seismic uplift – which we document as being independent of any hydrological control – and eastward horizontal motion for about six years, followed by subsidence and westward motion (starting six to eight months prior to the earthquake). We suggest that such a ground displacement pattern may represent an earthquake precursor signal.Supplementary material: Figures showing SAR satellites viewing geometry, examples of raw PS time series of obtained from ERS ascending and descending orbits and maps of LoS-oriented mean velocities obtained from PS datasets from the Envisat ascending and descending orbits and a Table reporting detailed numerical results of the performed statistical analysis are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5289357