Quality-adjusted life expectancy norms for the English population

Objective The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in England has proposed severity-of-disease modifiers that give greater weight to health benefits accruing to patients who experience a larger shortfall in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) under current standard of care compared to healthy individuals. This requires an estimate of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of the general population by age and sex. Previous QALE population norms are based on nearly 30-year old assessments of HRQoL in the general population. This study provides updated QALE estimates for the English population by age and sex. Methods EQ-5D-5L data for 14,412 participants from the Health Survey for England (waves 2017 and 2018) were pooled and HRQoL population norms were calculated. These norms were combined with official life tables from the Office for National Statistics for 2017-2019 using the Sullivan method to derive QALE estimates by age and sex. Values were discounted using 0%, 1.5% and 3.5% discount rates. Results QALE at birth is 68.04 QALYs for men and 68.48 QALYs for women. These values are lower than previously published QALE population norms based on older HRQoL data. Additional data tables and figures are made available through an interactive web application: https://r4scharr.shinyapps.io/shortfall/. Conclusions This study provides new QALE population norms for England that serve to establish absolute and relative QALY shortfalls for the purpose of health technology assessments.

The Role of Socioeconomic Inequalities In Transitioning to Neurocognitive Disorders in English Population

The association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and dementia is well studied. However, scant attention has been given to the relationship with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), often considered a transient state between normal cognition and dementia. The purpose of this study was to determine the role of various SEP markers such as education and wealth on transitioning to MCI and dementia over a four-year period using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a national representative sample of the English population aged 50+. We ascertained MCI and dementia over four years, using a validated algorithm based on physician diagnosis and lower cognitive performance (1 standard deviation below the mean) on multiple standardised tests adjusted for age and education. A Multistate Markov survival model was utilised to investigate whether different SEP markers increased the risk of specific transitions between normal cognitive performance and MCI or dementia, with the latter being considered an absorbing state. During the study period, a quarter of participants progressed to MCI from the normal state. Being in the lowest quintile of wealth was associated with a lower probability of transitioning back to a normal cognitive state from MCI, compared with those in the highest quintile. Greater wealth was weakly associated with a lower risk of transitioning from normal cognitive state to MCI and from MCI to dementia. The overall results imply that socioeconomic advantage might be protective against rapid progression from mild to more severe neurocognitive disorders such as dementia in later life.

Association between multimorbidity and socioeconomic deprivation on short-term mortality among patients with diffuse large B-cell or follicular lymphoma in England: a nationwide cohort study

ObjectivesWe aimed to assess the association between multimorbidity and deprivation on short-term mortality among patients with diffuse large B-cell (DLBCL) and follicular lymphoma (FL) in England.SettingThe association of multimorbidity and socioeconomic deprivation on survival among patients diagnosed with DLBCL and FL in England between 2005 and 2013. We linked the English population-based cancer registry with electronic health records databases and estimated adjusted mortality rate ratios by multimorbidity and deprivation status. Using flexible hazard-based regression models, we computed DLBCL and FL standardised mortality risk by deprivation and multimorbidity at 1 year.ResultsOverall, 41 422 patients aged 45–99 years were diagnosed with DLBCL or FL in England during 2005–2015. Most deprived patients with FL with multimorbidities had three times higher hazard of 1-year mortality (HR: 3.3, CI 2.48 to 4.28, p<0.001) than least deprived patients without comorbidity; among DLBCL, there was approximately twice the hazard (HR: 1.9, CI 1.70 to 2.07, p<0.001).ConclusionsMultimorbidity, deprivation and their combination are strong and independent predictors of an increased short-term mortality risk among patients with DLBCL and FL in England. Public health measures targeting the reduction of multimorbidity among most deprived patients with DLBCL and FL are needed to reduce the short-term mortality gap.

Mortality among Care Home Residents in England during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of 4.3 million adults over the age of 65

Background: Residents in care homes have been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe trends in risk of mortality among care home residents compared to residents in private homes in England. Methods: On behalf of NHS England, we used OpenSAFELY-TPP, an analytics platform running across the linked electronic health records of approximately a third of the English population, to calculate monthly age-standardised risks of death due to all causes and COVID-19 among adults aged >=65 years between 1/2/2019 and 31/03/2021. Care home residents were identified using linkage to the Care and Quality Commission. Findings: We included 4,329,078 people aged 65 years or older on the 1st of February 2019, 2.2% of whom were classified as residing in a care or nursing home. Age-standardised mortality risks were approximately 10 times higher among care home residents compared to non-residents in February 2019 residents (CMF = 10.59, 95%CI = 9.51, 11.81 among women, CMF = 10.82, 95%CI = 9.89, 11.84 among men). This increased to more than 17 times in April 2020 (CMF = 17.52, 95%CI = 16.38, 18.74 among women, CMF = 18.12, 95%CI = 17.17, 19.12 among men) before returning to pre-pandemic levels in June 2020. CMFs did not increase during the second wave, despite a rise in the absolute age-standardised COVID-19 mortality risks. Interpretation: The first COVID-19 wave had a disproportionate impact on care home residents in England compared to older private home residents. A degree of immunity, improved protective measures or changes in the underlying frailty of the populations may explain the lack of an increase in the relative mortality risks during the second wave. The care home population should be prioritised for measures aimed at controlling the spread of COVID-19.

Clinical coding of long COVID in English primary care: a federated analysis of 58 million patient records in situ using OpenSAFELY

Background: Long COVID describes new or persistent symptoms at least four weeks after onset of acute COVID-19. Clinical codes to describe this were recently created. Aim: To describe the use of long COVID codes, and variation of use by general practice, demographics and over time. Design and Setting: Population-based cohort study in English primary care records. Method: Working on behalf of NHS England, we used OpenSAFELY data encompassing 96% of the English population between 2020-02-01 and 2021-04-25. We measured the proportion of people with a recorded code for long COVID, overall and by demographic factors, electronic health record software system (EMIS or TPP), and week. Results: Long COVID was recorded for 23,273 people. Coding was unevenly distributed amongst practices, with 26.7% of practices having never used the codes. Regional variation, ranged between 20.3 per 100,000 people for East of England (95% confidence interval 19.3-21.4) and 55.6 in London (95% CI 54.1-57.1). Coding was higher amongst women (52.1, 95% CI 51.3-52.9) than men (28.1, 95% CI 27.5-28.7), and higher amongst EMIS practices (53.7, 95% CI 52.9-54.4) than TPP practices (20.9, 95% CI 20.3-21.4). Conclusion: Long COVID coding in primary care is low compared with early reports of long COVID prevalence. This may reflect under-coding, sub-optimal communication of clinical terms, under-diagnosis, a true low prevalence of long COVID diagnosed by clinicians, or a combination of factors. We recommend increased awareness of diagnostic codes, to facilitate research and planning of services; and surveys of clinicians’ experiences, to complement ongoing patient surveys.

Clinical coding of long COVID in English primary care: a federated analysis of 58 million patient records in situ using OpenSAFELY

Background Long COVID is a term to describe new or persistent symptoms at least four weeks after onset of acute COVID-19. Clinical codes to describe this phenomenon were released in November 2020 in the UK, but it is not known how these codes have been used in practice. Methods Working on behalf of NHS England, we used OpenSAFELY data encompassing 96% of the English population. We measured the proportion of people with a recorded code for long COVID, overall and by demographic factors, electronic health record software system, and week. We also measured variation in recording amongst practices. Results Long COVID was recorded for 23,273 people. Coding was unevenly distributed amongst practices, with 26.7% of practices having not used the codes at all. Regional variation was high, ranging between 20.3 per 100,000 people for East of England (95% confidence interval 19.3-21.4) and 55.6 in London (95% CI 54.1-57.1). The rate was higher amongst women (52.1, 95% CI 51.3-52.9) compared to men (28.1, 95% CI 27.5-28.7), and higher amongst practices using EMIS software (53.7, 95% CI 52.9-54.4) compared to TPP software (20.9, 95% CI 20.3-21.4). Conclusions Long COVID coding in primary care is low compared with early reports of long COVID prevalence. This may reflect under-coding, sub-optimal communication of clinical terms, under-diagnosis, a true low prevalence of long COVID diagnosed by clinicians, or a combination of factors. We recommend increased awareness of diagnostic codes, to facilitate research and planning of services; and surveys of clinicians' experiences, to complement ongoing patient surveys.

An Examination of Consistency in the Incremental Approach to Willingness to Pay: Evidence Using Societal Values for NHS Dental Services

Introduction Willingness to pay (WTP) is used to generate information about value. However, when comparing 2 or more services using standard WTP techniques, the amounts elicited from participants for the services are often similar, even when individuals state a clear preference for one service over another. An incremental approach has been suggested, in which individuals are asked to first rank interventions and provide a WTP value for their lowest-ranked intervention followed by then asking how much more they are willing to pay for their next preferred choice and so on. To date, evaluation of this approach has disregarded protest responses, which may give information on consistency between stated and implicit rankings. Methods A representative sample of the English population ( n = 790) were asked to value 5 dental services adopting a societal perspective, using a payment vehicle of additional household taxation per year. The sample was randomized to either the standard or the incremental approach. Performance for both methods is assessed on discrimination between values for interventions and consistency between implicit and stated ranks. The data analysis is the first to retain protest responses when considering consistency between ranks. Results The results indicate that neither approach provides values that discriminate between interventions. Retaining protest responses reveals inconsistencies between the stated and implicit ranks are present in both approaches but much reduced in the incremental approach. Conclusion The incremental approach does not improve discrimination between values, yet there is less inconsistency between ranks. The protest responses indicate that objections to giving values to the dental interventions are dependent on a multitude of factors beyond the elicitation process.

Linking electronic health records for research on a nationwide cohort including over 54 million people in England

Objectives: Describe a new England-wide electronic health record (EHR) resource enabling whole population research on Covid-19 and cardiovascular disease whilst ensuring data security and privacy and maintaining public trust. Design: Cohort comprising linked person-level records from national healthcare settings for the English population accessible within the new NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment. Setting: EHRs from primary care, hospital episodes, death registry, Covid-19 laboratory test results and community dispensing data, with further enrichment planned from specialist intensive care, cardiovascular and Covid-19 vaccination data. Participants: 54.4 million people alive on 1st January 2020 and registered with an NHS general practitioner in England. Main measures of interest: Confirmed and suspected Covid-19 diagnoses, exemplar cardiovascular conditions (incident stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and incident myocardial infarction (MI)) and all-cause mortality between 1st January and 31st October 2020. Results: The linked cohort includes over 96% of the English population. By combining person-level data across national healthcare settings, data on age, sex and ethnicity are complete for over 95% of the population. Among 53.2M people with no prior diagnosis of stroke/TIA, 98,721 had an incident stroke/TIA, of which 30% were recorded only in primary care and 4% only in death registry records. Among 53.1M people with no prior history of MI, 62,966 had an incident MI, of which 8% were recorded only in primary care and 12% only in death records. A total of 959,067 people had a confirmed or suspected Covid-19 diagnosis (714,162 in primary care data, 126,349 in hospital admission records, 776,503 in Covid-19 laboratory test data and 48,433 participants in death registry records). While 58% of these were recorded in both primary care and Covid-19 laboratory test data, 15% and 18% respectively were recorded in only one. Conclusions: This population-wide resource demonstrates the importance of linking person-level data across health settings to maximize completeness of key characteristics and to ascertain cardiovascular events and Covid-19 diagnoses. Although established initially to support research on Covid-19 and cardiovascular disease to benefit clinical care and public health and to inform health care policy, it can broaden further to enable a very wide range of research.