Validating an Operational Flood Forecast Model Using Citizen Science in Hampton Roads, VA, USA

Changes in the eustatic sea level have enhanced the impact of inundation events in the coastal zone, ranging in significance from tropical storm surges to pervasive nuisance flooding events. The increased frequency of these inundation events has stimulated the production of interactive web-map tracking tools to cope with changes in our changing coastal environment. Tidewatch Maps, developed by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS), is an effective example of an emerging street-level inundation mapping tool. Leveraging the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydro-science Integrated System Model (SCHISM) as the engine, Tidewatch operationally disseminates 36-h inundation forecast maps with a 12-h update frequency. SCHISM’s storm tide forecasts provide surge guidance for the legacy VIMS Tidewatch Charts sensor-based tidal prediction platform, while simultaneously providing an interactive and operationally functional forecast mapping tool with hourly temporal resolution and a 5 m spatial resolution throughout the coastal plain of Virginia, USA. This manuscript delves into the hydrodynamic modeling and geospatial methods used at VIMS to automate the 36-h street-level flood forecasts currently available via Tidewatch Maps, and the paradigm-altering efforts involved in validating the spatial, vertical, and temporal accuracy of the model.

Application of EFDC to Density Stratified Flow

Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was developed by Hamrick at Virginia Institute of Marine Science for estuarine and coastal applications. EFDC is a general-purpose modeling package for simulating three-dimensional flow, transport, and biogeochemical processes in surface water systems such as rivers, lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, wetlands and coastal regions. Use the 3-D numerical model EFDC simulated the density stratified flow in a slut. Compared the simulation and experimental data, the results showed that EFDC could accurately simulated the density stratified flow.

The Intersection of Behavioral Genetics and Political Science: Introduction to the Special Issue

The collection of papers in this special edition of Twin Research and Human Genetics represents a major land-mark at the intersection of behavioral genetics and political science. This issue is the fruit of 20 political scientists attending the Behavioral Genetics Association Methods Workshop in Boulder and a hands-on training practicum at the Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics, and includes results from the first wave of political science twin surveys.

Shark Nursery Grounds of the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast Waters of the United States

<em>Abstract.</em>—The lower Chesapeake Bay is the largest summer nursery for sandbar sharks <em>Carcharhinus plumbeus </em>in the western Atlantic. The objective of this study was to define essential fish habitat for juvenile sandbar sharks in this estuary. The longline survey conducted by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science was expanded from 1990 to 1999 to include ancillary stations throughout the Virginia portion of Chesapeake Bay to delineate this nursery spatially. We analyzed catch per unit of effort data from 83 stations as a function of nine physical and environmental variables using tree-based regression models. The highest abundance of juvenile sandbar sharks was predicted where salinity was greater than 20.5 (practical salinity scale) and depth was greater than 5.5 m. The models also suggested that dissolved oxygen concentration may influence shark distribution. To increase applicability of the models to management practices, we introduced distance to the mouth of the estuary as a surrogate variable for salinity. The models estimated that the highest abundance of sharks was in areas less than 34.5 km from the mouth of the estuary and in depths greater than 5.5 m. The areas of the estuary that met the criteria of the models, based on the threshold values of the variables, were mapped spatially in a geographic information system. The resulting response surfaces were interpreted to represent essential nursery habitat for sandbar sharks in Chesapeake Bay. Both models performed very well using several dependent and independent measures to estimate their classification and predictive ability. We used logistic regression with presence/absence data to validate the tree models. The logistic regression models agreed very well with the tree-based regression models, selecting the same variable combinations to predict sandbar shark presence and absence.

American Editor

Psychological Medicine is proud to announce a major step forward. With this issue Dr Kenneth S. Kendler joins as American Editor. Dr Kendler will be well known to the readership of Psychological Medicine. One of the most distinguished of psychiatric genetic epidemiologists, he is Rachel Brown Banks Distinguished Professor of Psychiatry, Professor of Human Genetics, and Co-Director of Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics at the Medical College of Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth University. He has been a contributor of papers to Psychological Medicine for many years, and a member of the Editorial Board since 1995.The proportion of papers which we publish from the Americas has been gradually increasing. They are now nearly one-third of all papers, mostly from the USA. There will be an additional editorial office in Richmond, Virginia and Dr Kendler will deal with submissions from the Americas, together with all submissions in psychiatric genetics, whatever their origin. Revised submission instructions are included in this issue. Our high standards for publication will continue.We also announce an additional smaller change. From now on each volume will include eight rather than six issues. The total number of pages per year will be unchanged, with issues slightly slimmer and a little more frequent. This will allow us to expedite publication of major papers, has advantages for the printers, and is similar to the pattern of eight issues per year adopted by what is now our sister Cambridge University Press publication, the Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry.With this issue also a loss: after seven years Simon Wessely relinquishes the role of associate editor and book review editor. We are grateful to him for his many contributions and pleased that he has agreed to remain as a member of the Editorial Board.