Optimization of chronic lymphocytic leukemia treatment using game theory

The current strategy of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) treatment is based on genetic risk factors such as del(17p), TP53 mutations and/or unmutated variant of IGHV genes. Guidelines recommend the usage of targeted drugs, e.g. ibrutinib, in the first line for patients with unfavorable risk factors due to dismal results of other treatment options. Unfortunately, in real-life treatment decisions are often made without full knowledge of genetic risk factors in the treated patient. Our aim was to find the optimal therapeutic strategy for such patients, that is, those providing the best 5-year progression-free survival (PFS). Using a relatively simple game theory-based approach we here show, that currently, the used strategy is more advantageous (success rate 71%) compared to administration of immunochemotherapy to all patients (success rate with fludarabine + cyclophosphamide + rituximab — 45%, bendamustine + rituximab — 32%). However, the optimal strategy for CLL treatment in the conditions of unknown genetic risks is the administration of ibrutinib to all patients (success rate 73%). Our simple method can be used for optimization of treatment strategy of any oncologic disease and can be integrated into relevant clinical decision support systems.

Reformulation of Public Help Index θ Using Null Player Free Winning Coalitions

This paper proposes a new representation for the Public Help Index θ (briefly, PHI θ). Based on winning coalitions, the PHI θ index was introduced by Bertini et al. in (2008). The goal of this article is to reformulate the PHI θ index using null player free winning coalitions. The set of these coalitions unequivocally defines a simple game. Expressing the PHI θ index by the winning coalitions that do not contain null players allows us in a transparent way to show the parts of the power assigned to null and non-null players in a simple game. Moreover, this new representation may imply a reduction of computational cost (in the sense of space complexity) in algorithms to compute the PHI θ index if at least one of the players is a null player. We also discuss some relationships among the Holler index, the PHI θ index, and the gnp index (based on null player free winning coalitions) proposed by Álvarez-Mozos et al. in (2015).

Price Discovery of Consignment Auctions for Emission Permits

A consignment auction aims to increase political feasibility by reducing the financial burden of initial permits allocation and to do the role of price discovery. However, previous analytical models presented contradictory results for the price discovery function of a consignment auction. Thus, this study reexamines whether a consignment auction can perform its price discovery function. The study uses a simple game model with several assumptions differentiated from previous analytical models: explicit consideration of the secondary market and firms as price-takers with various behaviors to respond to uncertainty about the price in the secondary market. Firms are classified into three types: speculators who seek arbitrage, doctrinarians who determine a permit demand based on an estimation of their marginal abatement cost, and neutralists who keep a permit demand the same as initial emission endowments. The results reveal that when a consignment auction was introduced, the expected equilibrium price was identical to that of the secondary market price, demonstrating that the auction could deliver the price discovery function. This is because speculators and doctrinarians provide information about their price expectations and marginal abatement cost through their estimated demand functions. Additionally, the smaller number of neutralists is, and the higher the risk-seeking propensity of speculators is, the more effective the price discovery function is.

Visual Performance Assessment of Videos—A Case Study of the Game “Spot the Difference”

“Spot the Difference” is a well-known game where players must find subtle differences between two almost identical pictures. If “Spot the Difference” is designed for videos, what is the difference between videos and pictures? If the performance of videos is measured by an eye tracker, what scan paths will be conducted? In this study, we explored this game using a video to conduct a visual performance evaluation. Twenty-five subjects were recruited in a full-factorial experiment to investigate the effect of background (with background, without background), video type (animation, text), and arrangement (left-to-right, top-to-bottom) on searching, eye tracking performance, and visual fatigue. The results showed that the video type had a significant effect on the accuracy and subjective visual fatigue, with the accuracy and subjective visual fatigue for animation being better than for text. The results also indicated that the arrangement had a significant effect on the number of fixations, where top-to-bottom arrangement brought a higher number of fixations. The background had a significant effect on accuracy and subjective visual fatigue, where the accuracy and subjective visual fatigue without a background was better than with a background. For the analysis of the scan path, a denser scan path was found in text than in animation, in top-to-bottom arrangement than in left-to-right arrangement, and without a background than with a background. In the future, game manufacturers should use the results of this research to design different “Spot the Difference” videos. When designing a simple game, an animation without a background and involving a left-to-right arrangement was recommended. When designing a difficult game, the opposite settings should be used.

Minimal winning coalitions and orders of criticality

In this paper, we analyze the order of criticality in simple games, under the light of minimal winning coalitions. The order of criticality of a player in a simple game is based on the minimal number of other players that have to leave so that the player in question becomes pivotal. We show that this definition can be formulated referring to the cardinality of the minimal blocking coalitions or minimal hitting sets for the family of minimal winning coalitions; moreover, the blocking coalitions are related to the winning coalitions of the dual game. Finally, we propose to rank all the players lexicographically accounting the number of coalitions for which they are critical of each order, and we characterize this ranking using four independent axioms.

Last Chance

The most important questions of life are indeed, for the most part, really only problems of probability. Pierre-Simon Laplace Life is no simple game. There is no book of rules. But if we are smart, we can figure out some strategies that lead to better choices. We can interpret the clues that help us tell bad paths from good. Understanding the nature of chance and keeping a sense of proportion and perspective are essential to choosing well. But there are no guarantees of success, and even the canniest of players can find their strategy undone by a bad roll of the dice....

Penerapan Metode Finite State Machine pada Game Santri on the Road

Endless running adalah game yang sangat digemari oleh anak-anak zaman sekarang, karena diselain gamenya yang sangat simple, game endless ini bernuansa 2D dan untuk alur gamenya berjalan tanpa mengenal batas dimana karakter terus bergerak maju dengan mengikuti serangkaian aksi. Dengan memainkan karakter seorang santri pengembara yang mencari ilmu berupa kitab-kitab dan mengumpulkan sebanyak-banyaknya, maka penulis menerapkan metode Finite State Machine. Finite State Machine digunakan pada saat player atau karakter penentuan karakter dalam gerakan serta aksi untuk mengambil setiap poin (icon kitab). Finite State Machine pada karakter player yang digerakan oleh kecerdasan buatan untuk mendukung game Endless Santri on the road.

JomGamesy

Games have existed since time immemorial and have proved to significantly change people's mentality and attitudes towards countless scenarios. Although games are ‘time wasters', we should acknowledge the one thing that games offer, constant testing, and learning a simple game engages the brain and proves that games are an asset in mental development. Thus, gamification can be used to provide a fun learning environment. In this article, the authors discuss how gamification has been implemented in various applications over the years, people's take on gamification and gamified apps from a survey and interview conducted, and thereafter design a student-oriented gamified study app, Gamesy, that makes use of game elements to improve performance in school and change/improve study habits in a game environment via progressive game design. With this, better performance may be realized in the tertiary education level.

Pygame: Develop Games using Python

In this paper, we will present the process of creating a simple game(Dracula) made in Python. For the purposes of this work, we created the game Dracula using the Pygame package. The aim of this paper is to show the process of creating a game, i.e the gradual construction of each element of the game. The game was created in several phases, and we will describe and explain each in detail. We will start from the construction of the basic skeleton of the game, that is. a graphical representation of the background image window. We will gradually introduce and add new elements (heroes, enemies, bullets, levels ...) all the way to a fully built and functional game. We will point out the possibilities and limitations that arise when programming the dracula game.

An exploratory study of heuristics for anticipating prices

PurposeThis research explores how investment and central bankers cope with strategic uncertainty when they anticipate prices. The uncertainty originates from others' decisions and their consequences, and cannot be meaningfully reduced to risk. The authors postulate that, in order to cope with this type of uncertainty, bankers use simple rules, also called heuristics. This study aims to identify such heuristics and the psychological processes that underlie them.Design/methodology/approachThe authors interviewed 22 managers of teams tasked to anticipate prices, in two leading investment and central banks. The primary data came from in-depth, semi-structured interviews lasting 30–60 min, supplemented by our observations during the on-site visits, emails and phone calls when preparing the interviews, and reports published by the banks. Data were coded and heuristics were induced over multiple rounds by multiple researchers.FindingsBankers (1) construct simple game representations of markets, (2) make inferences to gauge opponents, (3) become alert when they see too much agreement and (4) communicate coherent narratives. Heuristics (1)–(3) are employed when the pace of decision-making is fast, whereas (4) is used for longer time scales. In sum, bankers exhibit reciprocal bounded rationality, wherein interaction partners are mutually aware of and adapted to the fundamental uncertainty of the task and their limited resources.Originality/valueHeuristics for anticipating prices have not been studied empirically outside the lab. The findings may help integrate conceptualizations of heuristics in the simple-rules and fast-and-frugal-heuristics research programs and improve market efficiency.