Change in Measles Vaccine Coverage and Estimated Impact on Measles Mortality in Low and Middle Income Countries, 2020: An Investigation into Secondary Public Health Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using the Lives Saved Tool

With the global COVID-19 pandemic, many public health services were severely disrupted. Estimating the overall health effects of this is difficult as most disease surveillance systems have also been substantially affected during the pandemic. For some diseases, this effect is mitigated by the methods enacted to fight the pandemic, such as use of facial coverings, social distancing and quarantine, but measles is infectious to the degree that this mitigation is likely to be limited. Thus, outbreaks and an increase in global measles mortality are expected. However, the severity of this impact is not yet known. In early 2020, a study by Roberton and colleagues predicted an additional 12,360 to 37,920 deaths in children under-five worldwide from measles over the coming year based on three potential levels of vaccine coverage reductions ranging from 18.5 to 51.9%. Our study investigates the magnitude of the increase in measles mortality due to decreased vaccine coverage because of COVID-19, based on official estimates of 2020 measles vaccine coverage from WHO/UNICEF released in July 2021. Using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), an interventions modeling program, we estimated measles mortality for low/middle income countries (LMICs) based on the 2020 WHO/UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage (WUENIC). Because these calculations use actual reported vaccine coverage, they provide a more accurate picture of measles mortality related to COVID-19 disruptions in 2020. Using the WUENIC data, LiST predicted fewer additional deaths in 2020 due to decreases in measles vaccine coverage than estimations made by LiST based on Roberton, 2020 due to remarkable recovery efforts by national immunization programmes in the second half of 2020.

Projecting the impact of nutrition policy to improve child stunting: A case study in Guatemala using the Lives Saved Tool

Background: Child stunting is a critical global health issue. Guatemala has one of the world′s highest levels of stunting despite sustained commitment to international nutrition policy best-practices endorsed by the Scaling Up Nutrition movement (SUN). Our objective was to use Guatemala as a case study by projecting the impact of a recently published national nutrition policy, the Great Crusade, that is consistent with SUN principles. Methods: We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to project the scaling-up of nutrition interventions proposed in the Great Crusade and recommended by SUN. Our outcomes were changes in stunting prevalence, number of stunting cases averted, and number of cases averted by intervention in children under five years of age from 2020–2030. We considered four scenarios: (1) intervention coverage continues based on historical trends, (2) coverage targets in the Great Crusade are achieved, (3) coverage targets in the Great Crusade are achieved with reduced fertility risk, and (4) coverage reaches an aspirational level. Results: All scenarios led to modest reductions in stunting prevalence. In 2024, stunting prevalence was estimated to change by -0.1‰ (95‰ CI 0.0‰ to -0.2‰) if historical trends continue, -1.1‰ (95‰ CI -0.8‰ to -1.5‰) in the Great Crusade scenario, and -2.2‰ (95‰ CI -1.6‰ to -3.0‰) in the aspirational scenario. In 2030, we projected a stunting prevalence of -0.4‰ (95‰ CI -0.2‰ to -0.8‰) and -3.7‰ (95‰ CI -2.8‰ to -5.1‰) in the historical trends and aspirational scenario, respectively. Complementary feeding, sanitation, and breastfeeding were the most impactful interventions across models. Conclusions: Targeted reductions in child stunting prevalence in Guatemala are unlikely to be achieved solely based on increases in intervention coverage. Our results show the limitations of current paradigms recommended by the international nutrition community. Policies and strategies are needed that address the broader structural drivers of stunting.

The Potential Contribution of the Health System to Reducing Stunting in SUN Countries

Background: The global nutrition community has called for a multisectoral approach to improve nutritional outcomes. While most essential nutrition interventions are delivered through the health system, nutrition-sensitive interventions from other sectors are critical. Objective: We modeled the potential impact that Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) interventions delivered by the health system would have on reaching World Health Assembly (WHA) stunting targets. We also included results for targets 2, 3, and 5. Methods: Using all available countries enrolled in the SUN movement, we identified nutrition interventions that are delivered by the health system available in the Lives Saved Tool. We then scaled these interventions linearly from 2012 up to nearly universal coverage (90%) in 2025 and estimated the potential impact that this increase would have with regard to the WHA targets. Results: Our results show that only 16 countries out of 56 would reach the 40% reduction in the number of stunted children by 2025, with a combined total reduction of 32% across all countries. Similarly, only 2 countries would achieve the 50% reduction in anemia for women of reproductive age, 41 countries would reach at least 50% exclusive breastfeeding in children under 6 months of age, and 0 countries would reach the 30% reduction in low birth weight. Conclusions: While the health system has an important role to play in the delivery of health interventions, focusing investments and efforts on the health system alone will not allow countries to reach the WHA targets by 2025. Concerted efforts across multiple sectors are necessary.

The potential impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on maternal and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries

The COVID-19-related economic crisis and food- and health-system disruptions threaten to exacerbate undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). We used three modelling tools (MIRAGRODEP, Lives Saved Tool, and Optima Nutrition Tool) to estimate impacts on child stunting, wasting, and mortality, maternal anemia, children born to low BMI women, and future productivity losses for three scenarios across 2020–2022 (n = 118 LMICs). We also estimated the additional cost of mitigation for six nutrition interventions to maximize non-stunted and alive children. By 2022 COVID-19 could result in an additional 9.3 million wasted and 2.6 million stunted children, 168,000 additional child-deaths 2.1 million maternal anemia cases, 2.1 million children born to low BMI women and US$29.7 billion future productivity losses due to excess stunting and child mortality. An additional $1.2 billion per year is needed to mitigate these effects. Governments and donors must maintain nutrition as a priority, continue to support resilient systems, and ensure efficient use of new and existing resources.

Prioritizing the Scale-Up of Evidence-Based Nutrition and Health Interventions to Accelerate Stunting Reduction in Ethiopia

Despite some progress, stunting prevalence in many African countries including Ethiopia remains unacceptably high. This study aimed to identify key interventions that, if implemented at scale through the health sector in Ethiopia, can avert the highest number of stunting cases. Using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), the number of stunting cases that would have been averted, if proven interventions were scaled-up to the highest wealth quintile or to an aspirational 90% coverage was considered. Stunting prevalence was highest among rural residents and households in the poorest wealth quintile. Coverage of breastfeeding promotion and vitamin A supplementation were relatively high (>50%), whereas interventions targeting women were limited in number and had particularly low coverage. Universal coverage (90%) of optimal complementary feeding, preventive zinc supplementation, and water connection in homes could have each averted 380,000–500,000 cases of stunting. Increasing coverage of water connection to homes to the level of the wealthiest quintile could have averted an estimated 168,000 cases of stunting. Increasing coverage of optimal complementary feeding, preventive zinc supplementation, and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) services is critical. Innovations in program delivery and health systems governance are required to effectively reach women, remote areas, rural communities, and the poorest proportion of the population to accelerate stunting reduction.

Reducing stunting among less than five years children in Nagaland, India: a lives saved tool projection from 2018-2025

Background: Malnutrition is one of the key public health challenges for the state of Nagaland, India. In the backdrop of the global call for a reduction in malnutrition, this paper explores the feasibility of the state reaching the global targets reducing stunting among less than six years age children by 2025.Methods: Data from Census, National Family Health Survey were primarily used. Based on published literature, ten interventions that influence stunting were selected. The lives saved tool module of Spectrum software was used for analysis. This paper examined the effect of above interventions on stunting among zero to five-year old children. Three different scenarios with different coverage combinations were created for the years 2012 to 2025 and compared with global targets.Results: The analysis found that in none of the three scenarios the state will be achieving the global target. The projected stunting levels in 2025 will vary between 3-21% increase from the baseline figures in 2012. Though with increased coverage, the increasing trend of stunting could be reversed by 2025. Reaching the global target of 40% reduction in stunting by 2015 from the 2012 levels may take more time than the year 2025.Conclusions: Long-term programs with specific targets and processes need to be developed to address malnutrition. The scale of interventions, translation of behaviour change interventions at the household level and addition of new elements to an integrated program may achieve a better result.