Climate Change in the Hydrometeorological Parameters of the Black and Azov Seas (1980–2020)

To study the nature of climate change in the hydrometeorological parameters of the Black and Azov Seas—surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), ice cover, and sea level—under conditions of ongoing global warming, we used reanalyses and remote sensing data, as well as information from known publications of recent years. It was found that against an increase in SAT over the Black–Azov Sea region (+0.053°C/year in 1980–2020) and SST of the Black Sea (+0.052°C/year in 1982–2020), the values of these parameters in the 2000s differ significantly from those in the 1980s–1990s: the maximum average monthly summer and minimum average monthly winter temperatures have increased, as well as the number of mild winters. The average annual SST of the Black Sea, which practically did not exceed 15°C in the 1980s–early 1990s, has exceeded 16°C in most cases since 2010 (maximum 16.71°C in 2018). In the 2010s, the average monthly winter minima, with the exception of the winters of 2011/2012 and 2016/2017, did not fall below 8°С. A consequence of the increase in winter temperatures was a decrease in the ice concentration in the Sea of Azov (the trend of the mean monthly concentration is –1.2%/10 years). From about 2004–2010 in the Black Sea and since 2004 in the Sea of Azov, the tendency towards increase in their levels (on average) has been replaced by a slight decrease, so that the average positive trends for the period 1993–2020 (+0.32 ± 0.16 cm/year in the Black Sea and +0.21 ± 0.05 cm/year in the Sea of Azov) were approximately 2.5 times less than in 1993–2012. The reason for this decrease in levels (on average) in the last 10–15 years was apparently a decrease in the incoming part of the freshwater balance of both seas, which is indirectly confirmed by the observed increase in salinity of their waters.

Study on Relationship of Land Cover Changes and Ecohydrological Processes of the Tuul River Basin

The Tuul River Basin is the most important socioeconomic and political base area of Mongolia. Therefore, studying the interrelationships between changes in the ecohydrological processes of this basin and its land cover is of great importance for maintaining sustainability and the environment. This study investigated the annual average air temperature, total annual precipitation, and river discharge variability, and land cover changes at selected stations of the basin by using the hydrometeorological analysis, satellite analysis, and land cover determination statistical analysis. During the study period, the average annual air temperature rose from −1.5 °C to +0.3 °C (1.8 °C 361 °C). The average annual precipitation exhibits relatively low change during this period. River discharge varied during the study period. A significant decreasing trend in river discharge was observed at the Terelj (φ = −2.72) and Ulaanbaatar (φ = −5.63) stations, whereas the other stations, Altanbulag, Lun, and Orkhontuul, showed a significant increasing trend. During the study period, changes in land cover were directly related to main hydrometeorological parameters. Between 2000 and 2020, the amount of grassland decreased by 319.67 km2, while the area of water bodies increased by 28.36 km2. In the study area, mainly water bodies and sensitive areas of the land cover types were changed due to changes in precipitation. Studies in the arid and semiarid regions of Central Asia show that changes of ecohydrological processes have a significant impact on land cover changes.

MODEL OF WATER CONSUMPTION RATIONING AND CALCULATING THE OPERATION REGIME OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS IRRIGATION

Purpose: development of a current model of water consumption rationing and calculation of the corresponding rates and terms for agricultural crops irrigation under various hydrometeorological parameters. Materials and methods: the basis for the developed model is a series of field experiments conducted in 2012–2014, as well as analytical studies, the scheme of the experiment, soil and hydrometeorological characteristics, water balance dynamics, precipitation and total moisture supply of the irrigated massif, water consumption according to the development stages of summer planting potatoes were determined. Results and discussion: the model under consideration includes taking into account the water-physical properties of soil, the lowest moisture capacity and moisture reserves, setting critical limit for the irrigation regime, temperature and air humidity deficit, the duration of the growing and inter-irrigation periods, on the basis of which the water consumption of the selected crop is calculated according to the growth phase. Further, the irrigation regime is calculated: the irrigation rate and the difference in moisture reserves, which comparison with the critical limit allows to conclude on irrigation necessity or its prediction for the near future (up to five days) after which irrigation will be needed. A complex for differentiating the irrigation regime with the determining deficits and standards for the parameters under consideration is provided. Conclusions: the model of water consumption rationing, performed on the use of two hydrometeorological factors, taken into account the growth and development phases of the crop under consideration, makes it possible to substantiate the actual calculation of the corresponding norms and terms of agricultural crops irrigation. The model is stable and can be used in land reclamation practice as a part of general technological complex for agricultural crops cultivation on irrigated lands.

BAYESIAN EVALUATION OF THE CHANGE POINT IN THE SEQUENCES OF CORRELATED RANDOM VARIABLES OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS

The paper considers the method for determining the point of change (the disturbance of stationarity) in the time series of hydrometeorological parameters characterized by a sequential change in stationary states of a random process. The method is based on the Bayesian approach to obtaining the distribution of the change point, which is generalized for a case of correlated sequences with non-Gaussian marginal distribution laws.

Hydrological Extremes in the Canadian Prairies in the Last Decade due to the ENSO Teleconnection—A Comparative Case Study Using WRF

In the Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, agricultural production depends on winter and spring precipitation. There is large interannual variability related to the teleconnection between the regional hydroclimate and El Niño and La Niña in the Tropical Pacific. A modeling experiment was conducted to simulate climatic and hydrological parameters in the Canadian Prairie region during strong El Niño and La Niña events of the last decade in 2015–2016 and 2010–2011, respectively. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to perform two sets of sensitivity experiments with a nested domain at 10 km resolution using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA) interim data as the lateral boundary forcing. Analysis of the hourly model output provides a detailed simulation of the drier winter, with less soil moisture in the following spring, during the 2015–2016 El Niño and a wet winter during the La Niña of 2010–2011. The high-resolution WRF simulation of these recent weather events agrees well with observations from weather stations and water gauges. Therefore, we were able to take advantage of the WRF model to simulate recent weather with high spatial and temporal resolution and thus study the changes in hydrometeorological parameters across the Prairie during the two extreme hydrological events of the last decade.

Perspectives of land evaluation of floodplains under conditions of aridification based on the assessment of ecosystem services

Global climate change has discernible impacts on the quality of the landscapes of Hungary. Only a dynamic and spatially differentiated land evaluation methodology can properly reflect these changes. The provision level, rate oftransformation and spatial distribution of ecosystem services (ESs) are fundamental properties of landscapes and have to be integral parts of an up-to-date land evaluation. For agricultural land capability assessment soil fertility is a major supporting ES, directly associated with climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration as regulationg services. Since for Hungary aridification is the most severe consequence of climate change, water-related ESs, such as water retention and storage on and below the surface as well as control of floods, water pollution and soil erosion, are of increasing importance. The productivity of agricultural crops is enhanced by more atmospheric CO2 but restricted by higher drought susceptibility. The value of floodplain landscapes, i.e. their agroecological, nature conservation, tourism (aesthetic) and other potentials, however, will be increasingly controlled by their water supply, which is characterized by hydrometeorological parameters. Case studies are presented for the estimation of the value of two water-related regulating ESs (water retention and groundwater recharge capacities) in the floodplains of the Kapos and Drava rivers, Southwest Hungary. It is predictable that in the future land evaluation techniques based on the FAO framework will be more dynamic and integrated with the monetary valuation of ESs. The latter task, however, still involves numerous methodological problems to solve.

LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF THE HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETS IN THE CASPIAN SEA. PART 2: ANALYSIS

The second part of the paper presents a phenomenological analysis of the relationships of long-term variability of various hydrometeorological parameters in the Caspian Sea in the period 1948–2017. It is shown that under annual averaging the North-Eastern wind regime prevails over the sea basin, but the major portion of heat advection into the region is provided by zonal (Eastern) transport. Periods of warming/cooling are associated with a weakening/ strengthening of the Eastern transport. The time lag between the change of dynamic and thermal (as well as humidity) regimes is about 10–12 years. Specific humidity is positively correlated with air temperature and decreases/increases during periods of cooling/warming. In contrast, relative humidity and precipitation rates are negatively correlated with air temperature. Periods of intensification of Eastern transport (and, consequently, cooling) over the Caspian Sea coincide with a situation when the NAO index decreases to negative or zero values, and the EAWR index is significantly positive. Easing of the Eastern transport (and warming) occurs during a period of sharp strengthening of the NAO at strongly negative values of the EAWR index.

Prospects of development of unmanned ships in Russian Federation

The article considers the actuality of crewless shipping. The development of technical means in the marine shipbuilding industry has been pointed out. The statistical data on accidents at sea are given; as a result of the data analysis, there have been identified the main causes of the accidents: non-compliance with generally accepted methods of controlling a vessel, ignoring the specific hydrometeorological parameters of the navigation and mooring areas, non-compliance with safety and technical operation rules, navigation errors, etc. The human factor has been stated to remain the main and most frequent cause of accidents at sea. The types of accidents at sea are considered in detail (damage to ship devices and mechanisms, ship's hull, loss of life, bulk, explosion, fire, loss of a towed object, winding on a screw, grounding, serious bodily harm, collision, loss of stability, buoyancy, collision with a submerged object). The advantages of using a crewless vessel are substantiated, as well as the prospects associated with the introduction of such vessels: reduction in accident rate due to the exclusion of the human factor, lower negative and harmful effects on the environment, increased reliability of transportation due to changes in the structure of vessels, increased economic efficiency due to the uselessness of crew support, etc. There has been given an example of creating a project for the e-Navigation test area executed by Kronstadt in 2016. The test water area includes all e-Navigation coverage areas, combines 13 ports, training centers, over 300 sea vessels, several ship traffic control systems into a single electronic space. Within the framework of the project, developers introduce and test new equipment, conduct training for the crews. The conclusions have been made about possibility for the Russian Federation of accelerating the introduction of new technologies in the global market of shipping companies, increasing competitiveness and reducing dependence on foreign technologies