Tropical cyclone flooding in the Carolinas

The climatology of tropical cyclone flooding in the Carolinas is analyzed through annual flood peak observations from 411 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gaging stations. Tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 28% of the top ten annual flood peaks, 55% of record floods, and 91% of floods with peak magnitudes at least five times greater than the 10-year floods, highlighting the prominent role of TCs for flood extremes in the Carolinas. Of all TC-related flood events, the top ten storms account for nearly 1/3 of annual flood peaks and more than 2/3 of record floods, reflecting the dominant role of a small number of storms in determining the upper tail of flood peak distributions. Analyses of the ten storms highlight both common elements and diversity in storm properties that are responsible for flood peaks. Extratropical transition and orographic enhancement are important elements of extreme TC flooding in the Carolinas. Analyses of the Great Flood of 1916 highlight the flood peak of 3115 m3 s−1 in French Broad River at Asheville, 2.6 times greater than the second-largest peak from a record of 124 years. We also examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology and hydrology of flooding from Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Florence (2018). Results point to contrasting storm properties for the two events, including tracks as well as rainfall distribution and associated physical mechanisms. Climatological analyses of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) highlight the critical role of anomalous moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean in producing extreme rainfall and flooding over the Carolinas.

Orographically Modified Ice-Phase Precipitation Processes During the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)

Over mountainous terrain, windward enhancement of stratiform precipitation results from a combination of warm-rain and ice-phase processes. In this study, ice-phase precipitation processes are investigated within frontal systems during the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX). An enhanced layer of radar reflectivity (ZH) above the melting level bright band (i.e., a secondary ZH maximum) is observed over both the windward slopes of the Olympic Mountains and the upstream ocean, with a higher frequency of occurrence and higher ZH values over the windward slopes indicating an orographic enhancement of ice-phase precipitation processes. Aircraft-based in situ observations are evaluated for the 01-02 and 03 December 2015 orographically-enhanced precipitation events. Above the secondary ZH maximum, the hydrometeors are primarily horizontally oriented dendritic and branched crystals. Within the secondary ZH maximum, there are high concentrations of large (> ~2 mm diameter) dendrites, plates, and aggregates thereof, with a significant degree of riming. In both events, aggregation and riming appear to be enhanced within a turbulent layer near sheared flow at the top of a low-level jet impinging on the terrain and forced to rise above the melting level. Based on windward ground sites at low-, mid-, and high-elevations, secondary ZH maxima periods during all of OLYMPEX are associated with increased rain rates and larger mass-weighted mean drop diameters compared to periods without a secondary ZH maximum. This result suggests that precipitation originating from secondary ZH maxima layers may contribute to enhanced windward precipitation accumulations through the formation of large, dense particles that accelerate fallout.

Wintertime precipitation over the Australian Snowy Mountains: Observations from an Intensive Field Campaign 2018

Understanding the key dynamical and microphysical mechanisms driving precipitation in the Snowy Mountains region of southeast Australia, including the role of orography, can help improve precipitation forecasts, which is of great value for efficient water management. An intensive observation campaign was carried out during the 2018 austral winter, providing a comprehensive range of ground-based observations across the Snowy Mountains. We used data from three vertically pointing rain radars, cloud radar, a PARSIVEL disdrometer, and a network of 76 pluviometers. The observations reveal that all of the precipitation events were associated with cold front passages. About half accumulated during the frontal passage associated with deep, fully glaciated cloud tops; while the rest occurred in the post-frontal environment and was associated with clouds with supercooled liquid water (SLW) tops. About three quarters of the accumulated precipitation were observed under blocked conditions, likely associated with blocked stratiform orographic enhancement. Specifically, more than a third of the precipitation resulted from moist cloudless air being lifted over stagnant air, upwind from the barrier, creating SLW-top clouds. These SLW-clouds then produced stratiform precipitation mostly over the upwind slopes and mountain tops, with hydrometeors reaching the mountain tops mostly as rimed snow. Two precipitation events were studied in detail, which showed that during unblocked conditions, orographic convection invigoration and unblocked stratiform enhancement were the two main mechanisms driving the precipitation; with the latter being more prevalent after the frontal passage. During these events, ice particle growth was likely dominated by vapor deposition and aggregation during the frontal periods, while riming dominated during the post-frontal periods.

Learning about precipitation lapse rates from snow course data improves water balance modeling

Precipitation orographic enhancement is the result of both synoptic circulation and topography. Since high-elevation headwaters are often sparsely instrumented, the magnitude and distribution of this enhancement, as well as how they affect precipitation lapse rates, remain poorly understood. Filling this knowledge gap would allow a significant step ahead for hydrologic forecasting procedures and water management in general. Here, we hypothesized that spatially distributed, manual measurements of snow depth (courses) could provide new insights into this process. We leveraged over 11 000 snow course data upstream of two reservoirs in the western European Alps (Aosta Valley, Italy) to estimate precipitation orographic enhancement in the form of lapse rates and, consequently, improve predictions of a snow hydrologic modeling chain (Flood-PROOFS). We found that snow water equivalent (SWE) above 3000 m a.s.l. (above sea level) was between 2 and 8.5 times higher than recorded cumulative seasonal precipitation below 1000 m a.s.l., with gradients up to 1000 mm w.e. km−1. Enhancement factors, estimated by blending precipitation gauge and snow course data, were consistent between the two hydropower headwaters (median values above 3000 m a.s.l. between 4.1 and 4.8). Including blended gauge course lapse rates in an iterative precipitation spatialization procedure allowed Flood-PROOFS to remedy underestimations both of SWE above 3000 m a.s.l. (up to 50 %) and – importantly – of precipitation vs. observed streamflow. Annual runoff coefficients based on blended lapse rates were also more consistent from year to year than those based on precipitation gauges alone (standard deviation of 0.06 and 0.19, respectively). Thus, snow courses bear a characteristic signature of orographic precipitation, which opens a window of opportunity for leveraging these data sets to improve our understanding of the mountain water budget. This is all the more important due to the essential role of high-elevation headwaters in supporting water security and ecosystem services worldwide.

Cloud and precipitation microphysics evaluated with ERA-5 and Polar WRF over the northern Antarctic Peninsula

<p>Synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation that transports moisture from lower latitudes highly influences the Antarctic coastal climate, warming and moistening the lower troposphere and causing both precipitation and temperature increases. During recent decades, it has been shown that the highest warming rate over Antarctica is observed over the Antarctic Peninsula region. Heat and moisture transport from lower latitudes, particularly associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), could play a crucial role in this warming. Among the most complex and understudied processes relate to microphysical properties of clouds and precipitation and understanding phase transitions during intense precipitation events associated with ARs and their representation in polar weather and climate models.</p><p>The goal of this research is  to investigate the temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, including its intensity and phase transition and associated cloud properties during AR events over the Antarctic Peninsula in austral summer. We focus on two sites representing different regional and micro-climates around the Antarctic Peninsula - Escudero station, situated on King George Island at the northern tip of the peninsula, and Vernadsky station – located on Galindez Island at the western (upwind) side closer to the central part of the peninsula. Although both stations have typical maritime climate, the Vernadsky site is more affected by orographic enhancement of precipitation and cold air advection from the continent.</p><p>We use ground-based observations of meteorology, conducted during The Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period (YOPP-SOP) in summer 2018/2019 over the Antarctic Peninsula region and compare against ERA-5 and AMPS Polar WRF. After evaluating ERA-5 reanalysis , it is used for large-scale analysis of clouds and precipitation type. The timings of precipitation phase transitions in ERA-5 and Polar WRF are determined for the grid cells where the two stations are located. Sensitivity to microphysics parameterization in Polar WRF is tested with several double moment cloud microphysics parameterization schemes.</p><p>We analyze two cases with observed precipitation phase transitions, during the first week of December 2018. Higher precipitation amounts were observed over Vernadsky station during the first event and over Escudero during the second event. Total precipitation during the whole week is higher for Vernadsky station compared to Escudero station, related to the AR landfall position and strength, as well as the orographic enhancement at the upwind side of the Antarctic Peninsula ridge. This is confirmed by assessment of ERA-5 data. Comparison with the YOPP-SOP observations at Escudero shows that ERA-5 represents major precipitation type accurately and thus can be used for further study of precipitation microphysics. For Vernadsky station, ERA-5 showed a few cases of phase transition from snow to wet snow, associated with ARs events according to ERA-5 data; unfortunatly observations for comparison were lacking. Compared to ERA-5, Polar WRF shows a finer structure of precipitation fields disturbed by the mountains. We intend to test different parameterizations of cloud microphysics in Polar WRF with fine resolution against the complex of measurements at Vernadsky station in order to find the optimal configuration in the region to use during the upcoming winter YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere.</p>

Are extreme precipitation events becoming stronger and warmer in the Andes?

<p>The Andes Cordillera serves as a physical barrier that modulates the atmospheric fluid dynamics, affecting the occurrence and intensity of precipitation events through orographic enhancement and the blocking and deviation of humidity transported by jets. The quantification of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and their associated temperature is critical to address hydrological impacts and water availability for the Andes that also feeds the majority of the river and population in the region. </p><p>As the atmosphere is getting warmer, the increasing amount of water vapor available in the troposphere is expected to enhance warm precipitation events during the 21st century. In this study, we examine observational trends in extreme precipitation events by season and analyze possible connections with air temperature. To this end, we perform Sen's Tests and compute Mann-Kendall values Maximum Precipitation daily precipitation and its associated temperature at ~80 meteorological stations. Then, we cluster the results geographically finding positive trends in high elevation areas for extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and their temperature, especially in mid-latitudes. In low stations (<800 m a.s.l.), we obtain a decrease in the magnitude of EPEs but and a decrease in air temperature (up to -0.4 [°C/decade]). In general, the temperature increase in EPEs for high elevation stations < 0.12 °C/year and could rise the freezing level up to 1000 [m], during the fall season.  The presented here suggest positive feedback between warmer atmospheric conditions and the open further pathways regarding hydrological impacts such as debris flow, floods, and less snow availability in the Andes regions.</p>

Learning about precipitation orographic enhancement from snow-course data improves water-balance modeling

Precipitation orographic enhancement depends on both synoptic circulation and topography. Since high-elevation headwaters are often sparsely instrumented, the magnitude and distribution of this enhancement remain poorly understood. Filling this knowledge gap would allow a significant step ahead for hydrologic-forecasting procedures and water management in general. Here, we hypothesized that spatially distributed, manual measurements of snow depth (courses) could provide new insights into this process. We leveraged 11,000+ snow-course data upstream two reservoirs in the Western European Alps (Aosta Valley, Italy) to estimate precipitation orographic enhancement in the form of lapse rates and consequently improve predictions of a snow-hydrologic modeling chain (Flood-PROOFS). We found that Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) above 3000 m ASL was between 2 and 8.5 times higher than recorded cumulative seasonal precipitation below 1000 m ASL, with gradients up to 1000 mm w.e. km−1. Enhancement factors estimated by blending precipitation-gauge and snow-course data were quite consistent between the two hydropower headwaters (median values above 3000 m ASL between 4.1 and 4.8). Including blended gauge-course lapse rates in an iterative precipitation-spatialization procedure allowed Flood-PROOFS to remedy underestimations of both SWE above 3000 m ASL (up to 50 %) and importantly precipitation vs. observed streamflow. Runoff coefficients based on blended lapse rates were also more consistent from year to year that those based on precipitation gauges alone (standard deviation of 0.06 and 0.19, respectively). Thus, snow courses bear a characteristic signature of orographic precipitation, which opens a window of opportunity for leveraging these data sets to improve our understanding of the mountain water budget. This is all the more important due to their essential role in supporting water security and ecosystem services worldwide.