Tropical cyclone flooding in the Carolinas

Author(s):  
Maofeng Liu ◽  
James A. Smith ◽  
Long Yang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi

Abstract The climatology of tropical cyclone flooding in the Carolinas is analyzed through annual flood peak observations from 411 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gaging stations. Tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 28% of the top ten annual flood peaks, 55% of record floods, and 91% of floods with peak magnitudes at least five times greater than the 10-year floods, highlighting the prominent role of TCs for flood extremes in the Carolinas. Of all TC-related flood events, the top ten storms account for nearly 1/3 of annual flood peaks and more than 2/3 of record floods, reflecting the dominant role of a small number of storms in determining the upper tail of flood peak distributions. Analyses of the ten storms highlight both common elements and diversity in storm properties that are responsible for flood peaks. Extratropical transition and orographic enhancement are important elements of extreme TC flooding in the Carolinas. Analyses of the Great Flood of 1916 highlight the flood peak of 3115 m3 s−1 in French Broad River at Asheville, 2.6 times greater than the second-largest peak from a record of 124 years. We also examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology and hydrology of flooding from Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Florence (2018). Results point to contrasting storm properties for the two events, including tracks as well as rainfall distribution and associated physical mechanisms. Climatological analyses of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) highlight the critical role of anomalous moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean in producing extreme rainfall and flooding over the Carolinas.

Author(s):  
Sara Vitale ◽  
Valentina Russo ◽  
Beatrice Dettori ◽  
Cecilia Palombi ◽  
Denis Baev ◽  
...  

Abstract The type I interferons are central to a vast array of immunological functions. The production of these immune-modulatory molecules is initiated at the early stages of the innate immune responses and, therefore, plays a dominant role in shaping downstream events in both innate and adaptive immunity. Indeed, the major role of IFN-α/β is the induction of priming states, relevant for the functional differentiation of T lymphocyte subsets. Among T-cell subtypes, the CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ T regulatory cells (Tregs) represent a specialized subset of CD4+ T cells with a critical role in maintaining peripheral tolerance and immune homeostasis. Although the role of type I interferons in maintaining the function of thymus-derived Tregs has been previously described, the direct contribution of these innate factors to peripheral Treg (pTreg) and induced Treg (iTreg) differentiation and suppressive function is still unclear. We now show that, under tolerogenic conditions, IFN-α/β play a critical role in antigen-specific and also polyclonal naive CD4+ T-cell conversion into peripheral antigen-specific CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ Tregs and inhibit CD4+ T helper (Th) cell expansion in mice. While type I interferons sustain the expression and the activation of the transcription master regulators Foxp3, Stat3 and Stat5, these innate molecules reciprocally inhibit Th17 cell differentiation. Altogether, these results indicate a new pivotal role of IFN-α/β on pTreg differentiation and induction of peripheral tolerance, which may have important implications in the therapeutic control of inflammatory disorders, such as of autoimmune diseases.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 354-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
...  

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhixing Xie ◽  
Bo Sun

Intensive snowfall events (ISEs) have a profound impact on the society and economy in China during winter. Considering that the interaction between northerly cold advection and southerly water vapor transport (WVT) is generally an essential condition for the occurrence of ISEs in eastern China, this study investigates the different roles of anomalous southerly WVT and northerly cold advection during the ISEs in the North China (NC) and Yangtze River valley (YRV) regions based on a composite analysis of seventy ISE cases in NC and forty ISE cases in the YRV region from 1961 to 2014. The results indicate that the ISEs in NC are mainly associated with a significant pre-conditioning of water vapor over NC induced by southerly WVT anomalies over eastern China, whereas the ISEs in the YRV region are mainly associated with a strengthened Siberian High (SH) and strong northerly cold advection invading the YRV region. These results suggest a dominant role of anomalous southerly WVT in triggering the ISEs in NC and a dominant role of northerly cold advection in triggering the ISEs in the YRV region. The different roles of anomalous southerly WVT and northerly cold advection in the ISEs over the NC and YRV regions are largely attributed to the different winter climate in the NC and YRV regions—during winter, the NC (YRV) region is dominated by cold and dry (relatively warm and moist) air flow and hence southerly WVT (northerly cold advection) is the key factor for triggering the ISEs in NC (the YRV region).


2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (5) ◽  
pp. 1681-1700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuo Wang

Abstract The role of cumulus congestus (shallow and congestus convection) in tropical cyclone (TC) formation is examined in a high-resolution simulation of Tropical Cyclone Fay (2008). It is found that cumulus congestus plays a dominant role in moistening the lower to middle troposphere and spinning up the near-surface circulation prior to genesis, while deep convection plays a key role in moistening the upper troposphere and intensifying the cyclonic circulation over a deep layer. The transition from the tropical wave stage to the TC stage is marked by a substantial increase in net condensation and potential vorticity generation by deep convection in the inner wave pouch region. This study suggests that TC formation can be regarded as a two-stage process. The first stage is a gradual process of moisture preconditioning and low-level spinup, in which cumulus congestus plays a dominant role. The second stage commences with the rapid development of deep convection in the inner pouch region after the air column is moistened sufficiently, whereupon the concentrated convective heating near the pouch center strengthens the transverse circulation and leads to the amplification of the cyclonic circulation over a deep layer. The rapid development of deep convection can be explained by the power-law increase of precipitation rate with column water vapor (CWV) above a critical value. The high CWV near the pouch center thus plays an important role in convective organization. It is also shown that cumulus congestus can effectively drive the low-level convergence and provides a direct and simple pathway for the development of the TC protovortex near the surface.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. S. Vartanyan

The article presents the main results of more than forty-year studies of the hydrogeodeformation field. We have establish some new properties of lithospheric massifs, which are clearly detectable during the periods of fast geodynamic activation (FGeDA). These processes are contrastingly manifested within the planetary megastructure – the Global Endodrainage System (GEDS) of the Earth. The article discusses ideas about the conditions of formation, the specific features of functioning and the role of the asthenosphere as an essential element of the GEDS. It shows the dominant role of fluid processes that take place in the GEDS and provide the conditions for the ‘maturation’ of geodynamic catastrophes. The features of the formation of deformation disturbances and the dominant directions of the planetary migration of deformation impulses from the places of future catastrophic seismic events along the GEDS are considered. The regional hydrogeodeformation monitoring (HDGM) results give evidence of a close relationship between the lithospheric massifs in distant regions of the Earth: replica signals along the GDES length repeat an initial impulse originating from the area of a future seismic event. Attention is given to trigger effects that cause a seismic energy discharge at a large distance and, in some cases, can cause a cascade of earthquakes. It is proposed to create a HDGM system for monitoring of large seismic regions of the Earth.


Author(s):  
Ali Tamizi ◽  
Jose-Henrique Alves ◽  
Ian R. Young

AbstractA series of numerical experiments with the WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model are used to investigate the physics of wave evolution in tropical cyclones. Buoy observations show that tropical cyclone wave spectra are directionally skewed with a continuum of energy between locally generated wind-sea and remotely generated waves. These systems are often separated by more than 900. The model spectra are consistent with the observed buoy data and are shown to be governed by nonlinear wave-wave interactions which result in a cascade of energy from the wind-sea to the remotely generated spectral peak. The peak waves act in a “parasitic” manner taking energy from the wind-sea to maintain their growth. The critical role of nonlinear processes explains why one-dimensional tropical cyclone spectra have characteristics very similar to fetch-limited waves, even though the generation system is far more complex. The results also provide strong validation of the critical role nonlinear interactions play in wind-wave evolution.


2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (16) ◽  
pp. 4299-4315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoliang Song ◽  
Guang Jun Zhang

Abstract The role of convection parameterization in the formation of double ITCZ and associated upper-ocean biases in the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) is investigated by comparing the simulations using the original and revised Zhang–McFarlane (ZM) convection schemes. Ten-year model climatologies show that the simulation with the original ZM scheme produces a typical double ITCZ bias, whereas all biases related to the spurious double ITCZ and overly strong cold tongue in precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), wind stress, ocean thermocline, upper-ocean currents, temperature, and salinity are dramatically reduced when the revised ZM scheme is used. These results demonstrate that convection parameterization plays a critical role in the formation of double ITCZ bias in the CCSM3. To understand the physical mechanisms through which the modifications of the convection scheme in the atmospheric model alleviate the double ITCZ bias in the CCSM3, the authors investigate the impacts of convection schemes on the atmospheric forcing and feedback in the uncoupled Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3). It is shown that the CAM3 simulation with the original ZM scheme also produces a signature of double ITCZ bias in precipitation, whereas the simulation with the revised ZM scheme does not. Diagnostic analyses have identified three factors on the atmospheric side (i.e., the sensitivity of convection to SST, the convection–shortwave flux–SST feedback, and the convection–wind–evaporation–SST feedback) that may contribute to the differences in the coupled simulations.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 830-830
Author(s):  
Samantha J Drennan ◽  
Annalisa D'Avola ◽  
Ian Tracy ◽  
Isla Henderson ◽  
Marta Larrayoz ◽  
...  

Abstract The tumor B-cell receptor (BCR) is the key to survival and proliferation in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and is now a therapeutic target of very effective BCR-associated kinase inhibitors. CLL cells are typically characterized by a variable state of anergy, defined by low surface IgM (sIgM) levels and signaling ability with consequent relatively low proliferation rate. The subset with unmutated IGHV (U-CLL) is generally less anergic with a poorer prognosis than that with mutated IGHV (M-CLL), and appears more sensitive to BCR-inhibitors (Byrd et al., NEJM, 2013). However it remains unclear if the variable anergy reflects the nature of the cell of origin and/or the functional state of the BCR, thereby determining clinical behavior. In this study we investigated if variations of BCR sIgM levels and signaling correlate with clinical behavior of CLL and assessed the phenotypic and genetic associations with the variations. The study included samples at diagnosis or prior to treatment from 222 patients with sIgM/D CLL diagnosed according to the iWCLL2008 criteria (99 months median follow up). sIgM levels on the CD19+/CD5+ CLL cells and signaling [% intracellular Ca2+ mobilization (iCa2+)] were determined using soluble F(ab’)2 polyclonal antibodies (Mockridge at al, Blood, 2007). sIgM levels were analyzed for their association with i) survival, ii) phenotype (CD38, ZAP70 and BCR regulators CD5, CD19, CD20, CD22) and iii) genetic lesions (Del13q, Trisomy12, Del11q/ATM, Del17p/TP53, or NOTCH1 and SF3B1 mutants). Time from diagnosis to progression requiring first treatment (TTFT) was used as primary endpoint, while overall survival (OS) was used as a secondary endpoint to avoid the influences of chemotherapy. Best cut-offs for progression requiring treatment were determined with ROC and Youden’s T-tests (treatment as a state variable). Levels of sIgM (5th-95th percentile 12-378, median 52) varied markedly between patients. Levels were higher at more advanced stage of disease and sIgM expression (MFI>56) and signaling (iCa2+>6%) associated with significantly more rapid TTFT. Although sIgD levels and signaling also associated with shorter TTFT, multivariate Cox regression adjusted for IGHV status, sIgM levels, sIgM signaling, sIgD levels and sIgD signaling revealed that only U-IGHV (p<0.001, 95% CI 1.64-3.97) and high sIgM levels (p=0.004, 95% CI 1.24-3.16) were independent predictors of shorter TTFT. Also, high sIgM levels and not high sIgD associated with shorter OS, despite chemotherapy. These data confirmed the specific influence of anergy which drives down sIgM and not sIgD, and is associated with less aggressive tumor behavior in CLL. By focusing on sIgM, a multivariate analysis adjusted for IGHV status, sIgM levels, CD38 and ZAP70 confirmed U-IGHV (p=0.002, 95% CI 1.35-3.56) and high sIgM (p=0.003, 95% CI 1.25-3.04) as the only independent predictors of shorter TTFT. Consistently, high sIgM levels associated with a more aggressive CLL even when U-CLL or M-CLL were investigated separately. Phenotypic analyses showed that high sIgM CLL had higher CD20, CD38, ZAP70, and CD22, than low sIgM CLL. Genetic analysis revealed that CLL subsets harboring Trisomy12 or Del17p/TP53 had significantly higher sIgM levels and signaling capacity than Del13q, even when U-CLL or M-CLL were analyzed separately. Trisomy12 U-CLL cases were enriched for NOTCH1 mutations. Consistently, U-CLL with NOTCH1 mutations (with or without Trisomy12) expressed higher sIgM than Del13q U-CLL. This study has several biological and clinical implications. First, it supports the critical role of sIgM in CLL-associated anergy. Our previous studies had shown dynamic variations of sIgM on circulating CLL cells following (auto)antigen engagement in tissue (Mockridge et al., Blood, 2007; Coelho et al. Blood, 2013). The subpopulation with higher sIgM is potentially the most dangerous and the most sensitive to kinase-inhibitors. Second, it documents the dominant role of sIgM levels on cell signaling and on tumor progression in CLL, with relevance even within U-CLL and M-CLL. Third, this study suggests influences of altered genetics on sIgM levels. However BCR-inhibitors overcome the influence of genetic lesions like Del17p/TP53. This points to a dominant role of reversed sIgM anergy in the behavior of CLL in vivo and claims the need of studies to verify sensitivity to kinase-inhibitors in CLL patients with different sIgM levels. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


1988 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 574-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert. M. Quigley ◽  
Federico Fernandez ◽  
R. Kerry Rowe

The current use of engineered clayey barriers to control the chemical flux entering the groundwater adjacent to landfill sites is discussed. New analytical methods to predict flux–time relationships controlled by advection and diffusion are presented briefly, followed by an assessment of macropore flow problems inherent in laboratory and especially field-compacted clays.The clay–leachate compatability of southern Ontario (Sarnia) clays is then assessed with respect to domestic waste leachate using hydraulic conductivity as the assessment tool. The dominant role of channel flow through macropores, even in very carefully controlled laboratory samples, is emphasized, as is the critical role of soil smectite and vermiculite in retardation of species such as K+ from domestic leachate.The Sarnia brown and grey clays seem compatible with domestic waste leachate at least with respect to hydraulic conductivity, k. In spite of extensive K+ retardation, leachate effected a slight decrease in k of the water-compacted brown and grey samples, a feature also observed recently for the contaminated grey clay zone at a field site. Key words: clay barriers, hydraulic conductivity, compatibility, domestic leachate, channel flow, potassium retardation, migration modelling.


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 133 (11) ◽  
pp. 1222-1232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiaozhi Wei ◽  
Philip E. Boulais ◽  
Dachuan Zhang ◽  
Sandra Pinho ◽  
Masato Tanaka ◽  
...  

Abstract The erythroblastic island (EI), formed by a central macrophage and developing erythroblasts (EBs), was first described decades ago and was recently shown to play an in vivo role in homeostatic and pathological erythropoiesis. The exact molecular mechanisms, however, mediating the interactions between macrophages and EBs remain unclear. Macrophage-EB attacher (Maea) has previously been suggested to mediate homophilic adhesion bounds bridging macrophages and EBs. Maea-deficient mice die perinatally with anemia and defective erythrocyte enucleation, suggesting a critical role in fetal erythropoiesis. Here, we generated conditional knockout mouse models of Maea to assess its cellular and postnatal contributions. Deletion of Maea in macrophages using Csf1r-Cre or CD169-Cre caused severe reductions of bone marrow (BM) macrophages, EBs, and in vivo island formation, whereas its deletion in the erythroid lineage using Epor-Cre had no such phenotype, suggesting a dominant role of Maea in the macrophage for BM erythropoiesis. Interestingly, Maea deletion in spleen macrophages did not alter their numbers or functions. Postnatal Maea deletion using Mx1-Cre or function inhibition using a novel monoclonal antibody also impaired BM erythropoiesis. These results indicate that Maea contributes to adult BM erythropoiesis by regulating the maintenance of macrophages and their interaction with EBs via an as-yet-unidentified EB receptor.


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