Estimating Trends in Fertility in Kenya from Non Birth History Data

This study aimed at determining the extent to which methods for estimating trends in fertility without use of birth history could be used on Kenyan surveys data by employing the own-children method (OCM) and reverse survival (RS) method in estimating fertility trend in the country. The study used data from 2015/16 Kenya Integrated Household and Budget Survey (KIHBS) and 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS). Data evaluation was done in order to obtain optimal fertility estimates. 2015/16 KIHBS data reported a Whipples index of 49.0 and 57.5 for terminal digits 0 and 5 respectively. Myer’s blended index was 2.9 and this was an indication that in general the data was accurate and therefore did not require any adjustment to improve its quality before use. Results from 2015/16 KIHBS showed that RS estimated Total Fertility Rate to be 3.5 as compared to OCM that estimated it to be 3.8. The results from 2014 KDHS dataset were consistent when using both RS and OCM. The two indirect methods can give consistent fertility estimates when the reference period is closer to the survey period but in the fourth and fifth year RS tends to systematically overstate fertility as compared to OCM. This study found out that in the absence of full birth history data, RS and OCM can reliably estimate consistent fertility estimates and trend.

TREND OF SYNTHETIC PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO (SPPR) OF INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM NATIONAL FAMILY HEALTH SURVEYS

Fertility dynamics have been studied in this paper from 1977 to 2015. Regional fertility changes are analyzed using all four rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data. Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPR) and Total fertility rate (based on PPR) are used to analyze the fertility trend. Except for first parity, there is a decline in second and higher order birth of all the six regions. Reduction of third and higher order birth is the main reason for this decline.

Demographic Issues in Malaysia

This article will discussed about demographic issues in Malaysia and focused about fertility trend, increasing the number of ageing (60 years and above) and non citizen residents. Since 2016 years the crude birth rate in Malaysia are decreased to 16.6 per 1000 population compared to 18.5 per 1000 population in 2009. Starting on years 2019, fertility trend among women are decreased which is below the replacement level 2.1 child per women (15-49 years reproductive women) especially Chinese and Indian ethnic. In 2014, Chinese ethnic and Indian showed that total fertility rate is 1.4 child per women. In 2015, Malay ethnic showed the total fertility rate is 2.6 per child among women 15- 49 years. This situation showed the issued of age population increasingly significantly. The percentage of older person in Malaysia in 2010 among Chinese, Indian, Malay and Bumiputera ethnic are representively 12.2 percent, 7.9 percent, 7.3 percent and 6.2 percent. It showed that the issues of social support for example the living arrangement of older persons, health care, health status and income are the most important issues and must be addressed. Besides that, Malaysia will be challenging problem migrant worker from Asian country and will cause the problem for example for Malaysian citizen to get the work. Based on Department of Statistics Malaysia in 2016, there are about 3.3 million non-Malaysian citizens in Malaysia which is 80.3 percent in 15-64 years. Hopefully this paper will provide some suggestions to enable the authorities to address these issues more effectively.

Low fertility trend in the Republic of Korea and the problems of its family and demographic policy implementation

The article analyzes the population trends and the family and demographic policy in the contemporary Republic of Korea. The main emphasis is made on the analysis of low birth rate in the country. Until the end of the 20th century, the two-child family model prevailed in South Korea, however, in the last decade birth and marriage rates have become among the lowest in the world. Why has fertility fallen so dramatically far below replacement level? The article discusses the causes of fertility decline, as well as the social factors that contribute to and hinder the implementation of state measures to stimulate and increase the birth rate in the Republic of Korea. In particular, the social and gender aspects of solving the problem of low fertility are analyzed.

Czech family policy

The paper presents the development and transformation of the Czech population policy since the 1950s. It changed from the pronatalist, carried out at a time when the Czech Republic was part of the communist Czechoslovakia, to mostly social in the time of the transition from the 1990s, and the actualization and introduction of new measures in the last decade. The measures that were defined and implemented over a certain period of time represented the state?s response to the family and reproductive behavior of the population, most often reflected in low fertility, largely determined by the current social, economic and cultural conditions. In this sense, the period of the greatest challenges came after 1989, with the transformation of the social and political system and the great economic and social changes that followed, as well as the decline in fertility to an extremely low level. At that time, family policy excluded the pronatalist incentives and benefits and only kept social measures aimed at reducing poverty and alleviating inequalities. Since the early 2000s, new measures have been defined and implemented, motivated by the need to stop and change the declining fertility trend that reached the lowest level (TFR 1.13 in 1999), by looking at the possible negative socio-economic consequences, as well as the recommendations and directives of the European Union, member of which became Czech Republic in 2004. Since 2000, the decline in fertility stopped, TFR reached 1.43 in 2011 and according to data for 2016, it was 1.63 children per woman.

A Comparison of Fertility in Canada and Australia, 1926-2011

Canada and Australia are countries that, through their histories, have had many similarities as described later in the paper. However, they have two obvious differences. First, Australia has no equivalent to the province of Quebec and is not bi-lingual[B1] . If Quebec’s fertility trend was a mirror image of the trends in other provinces in Canada, this would not present a difficulty but, as we demonstrate in this article, the differences between fertility trends in Quebec and the other Canadian provinces go some way towards explaining the historical differences between the Canadian and Australian fertility trends, but only until 1960. [B1]2 nations rather than province