Examining performance and likelihood ratios for two likelihood ratio systems using the PROVEDIt dataset

A likelihood ratio (LR) system is defined as the entire pipeline of the measurement and interpretation processes where probabilistic genotyping software (PGS) is a piece of the whole LR system. To gain understanding on how two LR systems perform, a total of 154 two-person, 147 three-person, and 127 four-person mixture profiles of varying DNA quality, DNA quantity, and mixture ratios were obtained from the filtered (.CSV) files of the GlobalFiler 29 cycles 15s PROVEDIt dataset and deconvolved in two independently developed fully continuous programs, STRmix v2.6 and EuroForMix v2.1.0. Various parameters were set in each software and LR computations obtained from the two software were based on same/fixed EPG features, same pair of propositions, number of contributors, theta, and population allele frequencies. The ability of each LR system to discriminate between contributor (H1-true) and non-contributor (H2-true) scenarios was evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively. Differences in the numeric LR values and their corresponding verbal classifications between the two LR systems were compared. The magnitude of the differences in the assigned LRs and the potential explanations for the observed differences greater than or equal to 3 on the log10 scale were described. Cases of LR < 1 for H1-true tests and LR > 1 for H2-true tests were also discussed. Our intent is to demonstrate the value of using a publicly available ground truth known mixture dataset to assess discrimination performance of any LR system and show the steps used to understand similarities and differences between different LR systems. We share our observations with the forensic community and describe how examining more than one PGS with similar discrimination power can be beneficial, help analysts compare interpretation especially with low-template profiles or minor contributor cases, and be a potential additional diagnostic check even if software in use does contain certain diagnostic statistics as part of the output.

EXAMINING DISCRIMINATION PERFORMANCE AND LIKELIHOOD RATIO VALUES FOR TWO DIFFERENT LIKELIHOOD RATIO SYSTEMS USING THE PROVEDIT DATASET

The conventional capillary electrophoresis (CE) genotyping workflow used in forensic DNA laboratories is composed of two processes: measurement and interpretation. The outcome of the measurement process is an electropherogram (EPG). The outcome of the interpretation process is a strength of evidence statement often reported in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) which typically requires probabilistic genotyping software (PGS). An LR system is defined as the entire pipeline of the measurement and interpretation processes where PGS is a piece of the whole LR system. To gain understanding on how two LR systems perform, a total of 154 two-person mixture, 147 three-person mixture, and 127 four-person mixture profiles of varying DNA quality, DNA quantity, and mixture ratios were obtained from the filtered (.CSV) files of the GlobalFiler 29 cycles 15s PROVEDIt dataset and deconvolved in two independently developed fully continuous programs, STRmix v2.6 and EuroForMix v2.1.0. Various parameters were set in each software and LR computations obtained from the two software were based on same/fixed EPG features, same pair of propositions, number of contributors, theta, and population allele frequencies. The ability of each LR system to discriminate between contributor (H1-true) and non-contributor (H2-true) scenarios was evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively. Differences in the numeric LR values and their corresponding verbal classifications between the two LR systems were compared. The magnitude of the differences in the assigned LRs and the potential explanations for the observed differences greater than or equal to 3 on the log10 scale were described. Cases of LR < 1 for H1-true tests and LR > 1 for H2-true tests were also discussed. Our intent is to demonstrate the value of using a publicly available ground truth known mixture dataset to assess discrimination performance of any LR system and show the steps used to investigate and understand similarities and differences between different LR systems. We share our observations with the forensic community and describe how examining more than one PGS with similar discrimination power can be beneficial, help analysts compare interpretation especially with low-template profiles or minor contributor cases, and be a potential additional diagnostic check even if software in use does contain certain diagnostic statistics as part of the output.

Reclassifying inferential statistics into diagnostic and predictive statistics with an application on gynecologic cancer

Statisticians use to classify Statistics into two main parts, namely Descriptive and Inferential Statistics. Here, we suggest reclassifying Inferential Statistics into two parts, namely Diagnostic Statistics and Predictive Statistics. Based on that we will have four levels to analyze data (Descriptive, Diagnostic, Predictive and Perspective Statistics). Descriptive statistics mainly related to Graphs, Frequency tables, Measures of Central Tendency, Measures of Variation and Measures of Shape. Diagnostic statistics mainly related to the effects of the Independent variables (inputs) on the Dependent (Target) variable based on the Tests of Correlation or Association, Tests for Means differences and Tests for Classification. Predictive statistics mainly related to Estimation, Regression techniques and Time series Analysis for the Dependent (Target) variable. Perspective statistics mainly related to the previous three levels and acts as a prescription to how to solve or prevent the problem. In this paper, we will clarify the statistical tests used in each level of statistical analysis and will give an example on a real data related to Gynecologic Cancer

N-acetylcysteine for cessation of tobacco smoking: rationale and study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Tobacco smoking is a highly prevalent, addictive behaviour and a key public health priority. However available cessation therapies have low quit and high relapse rates, indicating an urgent need for more effective treatments. Predicated on promising preclinical and pilot clinical data, this paper presents a rationale and protocol for the trial of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) as a novel anti-craving smoking cessation aid. Methods Current smokers (n = 120) of at least 10 cigarettes a day are recruited through online advertisements, print publications and dissemination of flyers. Participants are randomised on a 1:1 ratio to receive either 16-week treatment of 1.8 g/day of NAC or placebo with all participants receiving quit support from the online QuitCoach tool. Participants are attending visits at baseline, 8 and 16 weeks with a 42-week post-discontinuation follow-up. The primary outcome measure is sustained abstinence at six months after treatment based on self-reported rating scales and confirmed by exhaled carbon monoxide and salivary cotinine levels. Secondary outcomes are timing of the first lapse and relapse, between-group cigarette consumption, withdrawal symptoms, general wellbeing and mood/anxiety symptoms. Between-group differences in adverse events and subgroup analyses for variables including gender and Diagnostic Statistics Manual 5 diagnostics will also be investigated. Discussion The planned trial addresses an issue of major importance to human health and, if an effect is shown, may result in substantial changes to the management of smoking and nicotine addiction with overt public health implications. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials registry (ANZCTR), ACTRN12617001478303. Registered on 19 October 2017.

A SCRUTINY ON THE CHANGES IN THE SELF-RESPECT, ANXIETY, AND DEPRESSION LEVELS OF THE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS PERFORMING INDIVIDUAL AND TEAM SPORTS

The objective of this study is to examine the changes in the self-respect, anxiety, and depression levels of the sportspeople studying at various departments of Selçuk University. The study group is constituted by totally 280 university students, 106 of whom doing individual and 174 doing team sports, being 123 females and 157 males. In the acquisition of the data, “Beck Depression Scale, Rosenberg Self-Perception Scale, and Beck Anxiety Scale were used. The diagnostic statistics of the data were conducted and their homogeneity and variances were tested. In the analysis of the data, Independent Samples t test was used and Pearson Correlation analysis was conducted. While no statistical change was observed in line with the age and accommodation factors, statistical significant changes were identified in the case of self-respect, anxiety and Depression levels in line with the gender and the type of sports done (p<0.05). It is contemplated that the changes between the female and male students stem from the cultural structure in addition to the social structure, social responsibility, and duties, and it can be said that the reason for the values of self-respect, anxiety, and Depression in students performing team sports are more positive than those of the students doing individual sports arises from the specific structure of the sportive branches.Keywords: University Student, Anxiety, Self-respect, Depression, Sports

Firm Characteristics and Innovation Activity: A Study of Italian Family Firms

Increasingly, innovation is seen as a novel leverage tool with which to create business and social value and thereby place its finders and users at a competitive advantage. Contemporary research suggests that the determinants of the innovation activity of firms are numerous. In this paper, we consider the financial and governance characteristics that might influence the innovation activity of a sample of 700 family firms in Italy. Our study was conducted over a 10-year period, from 2007 to 2016, using panel analysis models alongside robustness tests for the lagging effect and the probability regression as well as diagnostic statistics to ensure the use of an appropriate model. The results show that the existence of institutional investors, as a proxy for governance, has a persistent positive relationship with patent value, as a proxy for innovation, but not with the likelihood of being innovative. Moreover, financial indicators such as net working capital, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, debt, and equity are found to explain innovation activity better than other indicators in both the panel and probability regressions. We also find very little significant difference between the sectors and regions featured in the study, suggesting that the relationship among them is quasi-systematic. Concluding the paper, our findings are discussed in relation to their policy implications and suggestions for further research are made.

Tests of Feigned or Exaggerated Cognitive Impairment

This chapter reviews the most popular and promising instruments for assessing poor effort or feigned cognitive impairment. Referred to as performance validity tests (PVTs), these instruments vary from very brief to quite long and also vary substantially in sophistication and performance. The advantages and disadvantages of each are reported along with the costs of their use (time and money), diagnostic statistics, and recommended cutoff scores. The various PVTs discussed in the chapter are well validated in neurological samples but less so in psychiatric ones. The chapter concludes by noting that although many PVTs are now described as effort tests, there has been no research to accurately measure how much mental effort different tests require.

CST Instruments and General Clinical Measures

This chapter discusses the most commonly used instruments for assessing competency to stand trial, their vulnerability to feigning, and attempts and approaches to remedying this deficiency. In contrast, general clinical measures such as the Minnesota Multiphasic Inventory–2, the Minnesota Multiphasic Inventory–Restructured Form, and the Personality Assessment Inventory are both well-armed and well-researched as self-report validity tests. Each has multiple validity indexes and scales, including those that are not included in the publisher’s scoring services. The rationale and research regarding these indices are reviewed, with emphasis on studies involving criminal defendants, and recommended cutoff cutoff scores, with associated diagnostic statistics, are provided.

Instruments for Assessing Feigned or Exaggerated Psychopathology

This chapter reviews the most prominent instruments for assessing malingered mental illness and its symptoms. The Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms (SIRS) has been regarded as the gold standard instrument in this area, but a recent revision, the SIRS-2, has come under considerable criticism that extends to its predecessor as well. Although the SIRS-2 may produce fewer false positives than the original SIRS, especially in intellectually disabled examinees and perhaps in examinees with dissociative identity disorder, it is less sensitive than the original SIRS and may misclassify a substantial number of of feigners as genuine. The strengths and weakness of instruments in this domain, such as the M-FAST and SIMMS, are discussed along with the costs of their use (time and money), diagnostic statistics, and recommended cutoff scores.