Falls in ED patients: do elderly patients on direct oral anticoagulants bleed less than those on vitamin K antagonists?

Background Falls from standing are common in the elderly and are associated with a significant risk of bleeding. We have compared the proportional incidence of bleeding complications in patients on either direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) or vitamin K antagonists (VKA). Methods Our retrospective cohort study compared elderly patients (≥65 years) on DOAC or VKA oral anticoagulation who presented at the study site – a Swiss university emergency department (ED) – between 01.06.2012 and 01.07.2017 after a fall. The outcomes were the proportional incidence of any bleeding complication and its components (e.g. intracranial haemorrhage), as well as procedural and clinical parameters (length of hospital stay, admission to intensive care unit, in-hospital-mortality). Uni- and multivariable analyses were used to compare the studied outcomes. Results In total, 1447 anticoagulated patients were included – on either VKA (n = 1021) or DOAC (n = 426). There were relatively more bleeding complications in the VKA group (n = 237, 23.2%) than in the DOAC group (n = 69, 16.2%, p = 0.003). The difference persisted in multivariable analysis with 0.7-fold (95% CI: 0.5–0.9, p = 0.014) lower odds for patients under DOAC than under VKA for presenting with any bleeding complications, and 0.6-fold (95% 0.4–0.9, p = 0.013) lower odds for presenting with intracranial haemorrhage. There were no significant differences in the other studied outcomes. Conclusions Among elderly, anticoagulated patients who had fallen from standing, those under DOACs had a lower proportional incidence of bleeding complications in general and an even lower incidence of intracranial haemorrhage than in patients under VKAs.

Incidence of interval breast cancer among women aged 45–49 in an organised mammography screening setting

Objective To estimate the proportional incidence (PI) of first- and second-year interval breast cancer among women aged 45–49. Methods In the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy), women aged 45–49 are invited to mammography screening annually, and women aged 50–74 biennially. For younger ones, the proportional incidence of interval cancer in the first and unique interval year was calculated using standard methods. For the second, hypothetical year, it was estimated using two different estimates of the ratio between the second- and the first-year proportional incidence observed among women aged 50–54. Overall, 567,151 negative mammography records were used. Results In the first interval year, the observed proportional incidence of interval cancer among women aged 45–49 was 0.27 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22–0.33), within the European limit considered desirable for women aged 50–69 (<0.30). In the second, hypothetical interval year, the estimated proportional incidence ranged from 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43–0.86) to 0.48 (95% CI, 0.31–0.76) depending on whether the estimate was based on data from the pre-digital or digital era, respectively. Conclusion The more up-to-date estimate of 0.48, slightly below the maximum limit considered acceptable for women aged 50–69 (<0.50), suggests that a screening interval of two years may also be an acceptable option for women aged 45–49.

Changing trends in proportional incidence and net survival of screened and nonscreened breast cancers among women in England

BackgroundUptake of breast cancer screening has been decreasing in England since 2007, and may increase proportional incidence of nonscreened cancers. However, recent trends in proportional incidence and net-survivals of screened and nonscreened breast cancers are unclear.MethodsWe extracted population-based proportional incidence and age-standardized 5-year net-survivals from Public Health England, for English women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed during 1995-2011 (linked to death certificates, followed through 2016). Piecewise log-linear models with change-point/joinpoint were used to estimate temporal trends. We conducted a quasi-experimental study to test the hypothesis that the trend-change year of proportional incidence coincided with that of 5-year net-survival.ResultsAmong 254,063 women in England with invasive breast cancer diagnosed during 1995-2011, there was downward-to-upward trend-change in proportional incidence of nonscreened breast cancers (annual percent change[APC]=5.6 after 2007 versus APC=-3.5 before 2007, P<0.001) in diagnosis-year 2007, when steeper upward-trend in age-standardized 5-year net survival started (APC=5.7 after 2007/2008 versus APC=0.3 before 2007/2008, P<0.001). Net-survival difference of screened versus nonscreened cancers also significantly narrowed (18% in 2007/2008 versus 5% in 2011). Similar associations were found in all strata of race, cancer stage, grade and histology, except in Black patients or patients with stage I, stage III, or grade I cancer.ConclusionsThe downward-to-upward trend-change in proportional incidence of nonscreened breast cancers is associated with steeper upward-trend in age-standardized 5-year net survival among English women in recent years. Survival benefits of breast cancer screening appear decreasing in recent years. The data support reduction of breast cancer screening in some patients.

Seasonal variation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in culture positive otitis externa in South East England

Otitis externa is the inflammation of the external auditory canal. The disease is common and shows a seasonal variation with a greater incidence in warmer months. Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a common pathogen in otitis externa and in this retrospective study, we show a corresponding seasonal variation in the proportional incidence of P. aeruginosa isolates from otitis externa in South East England. In total 7770 patients were diagnosed with otitis externa over a period of 9 years from January 2008 to December 2016. P. aeruginosa was isolated from 2802 patients (proportional incidence of 36%). Incidence was higher in the months of August, September and October and in patients between 5 and 15 years of age. We postulate a combination of increased contact with water during warm weather in the holiday season and increased rainfall in the preceding season as a putative mechanism for the seasonal trends.

Incidence of interval cancers in faecal immunochemical test colorectal screening programmes in Italy

Objective In Italy, colorectal screening programmes using the faecal immunochemical test from ages 50 to 69 every two years have been in place since 2005. We aimed to measure the incidence of interval cancers in the two years after a negative faecal immunochemical test, and compare this with the pre-screening incidence of colorectal cancer. Methods Using data on colorectal cancers diagnosed in Italy from 2000 to 2008 collected by cancer registries in areas with active screening programmes, we identified cases that occurred within 24 months of negative screening tests. We used the number of tests with a negative result as a denominator, grouped by age and sex. Proportional incidence was calculated for the first and second year after screening. Results Among 579,176 and 226,738 persons with negative test results followed up at 12 and 24 months, respectively, we identified 100 interval cancers in the first year and 70 in the second year. The proportional incidence was 13% (95% confidence interval 10–15) and 23% (95% confidence interval 18–25), respectively. The estimate for the two-year incidence is 18%, which was slightly higher in females (22%; 95% confidence interval 17–26), and for proximal colon (22%; 95% confidence interval 16–28). Conclusion The incidence of interval cancers in the two years after a negative faecal immunochemical test in routine population-based colorectal cancer screening was less than one-fifth of the expected incidence. This is direct evidence that the faecal immunochemical test-based screening programme protocol has high sensitivity for cancers that will become symptomatic.