Forecasting Commodity Price Index of Food and Beverages in Kenya Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Models

Price stability is the primary monetary policy objective in any economy since it protects the interests of both consumers and producers. As a result, forecasting is a common practice and a vital aspect of monetary policymaking. Future predictions guide monetary and fiscal policy tools that that be used to stabilize commodity prices. As a result, developing an accurate and precise forecasting model is critical. The current study fitted and forecasted the food and beverages price index (FBPI) in Kenya using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. Unlike other ARIMA models like the autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA), and non-seasonal ARMA models, the SARIMA model accounts for the seasonal component in a given time series data better forecasts. The study relied on secondary data obtained from the KNBS website on monthly food and beverage price index in Kenya from January 1991 to February 2020. R-statistical software was used to analyze the data. The parameter estimation was done using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. Competing SARIMA models were compared using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE),.and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). A first-order differenced SARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1)12 minimized these model evaluation criteria (AIC = 1818.15, BIC =1833.40). The forecasting ability evaluation statistics MAE = 2.00%, MAPE = 1.62% and MASE = 0.87%. The 24-step ahead forecasts showed that the FPBI is unstable with an overall increasing trend. Therefore, the monetary policy committee ought to control inflation through monetary or fiscal policy, strengthening food security and trade liberalization.

A Deterministic Analysis of the Effectiveness of Non-Clinical Approaches in the Control of Transimission of Schistosomiasis: Case Study of Mwea Irrigation Scheme, Kenya

Schistosomiasis commonly known as bilharzia is regarded by W.H.O as a neglected tropical disease. It affects the intestines and the urinary system preferentially, but can harm other systems in the body. The disease is a health concern among majority of the population in Mwea irrigation scheme in Kenya and indeed other tropical countries. This paper documents a deterministic analysis of the effectiveness of non-clinical approaches in the control of transmission of schistosomiasis in the region. A SIR based mathematical model that incorporates media campaigns as a control strategy of reducing transmission of the disease is used. The model considers behavior patterns of hosts as the main process of transmission of the disease. The dynamics of these processes is expressed in terms of ordinary differential equations deduced from the human behavior patterns that contribute to the spread of the disease. The reproduction number R0 and equilibrium points both DFE and EE are obtained. The stabilities of these equilibrium points are analyzed in reference to the reproduction number (R0). Secondary data is used in the mathematical model developed and in the prediction of the dynamics estimated in the model for a period of five years. Numerical simulation was carried out and results represented graphically. The results of the simulation show that the infection decreased from 75108 to about 35000 and the susceptible from 325142 to 50000 respectively in a period of five years. From the analysis, the DFE point is asymptotically stable when R_0<1.Sensitivity analysis of parameters was carried out using partial differentiation. The results show that the sensitivity index of most parameters are inversely proportional to R0 which will reduce schistosomiasis infection. From the results, incorporation of media campaigns as a control strategy significantly reduces transmission of the disease. The results will be useful to MOH to enhance media campaigns to prevent spread of schistosomiasis in Mwea Irrigation scheme and other endemic areas.

Theorems on Transform for Product of Generalized M-Series, I-Function of Two Variables and It’s Applications

In the present paper we establish four theorem which involves I-function of two variables and generalized M-series. In next section we obtain certain new integrals by application of our theorems by giving suitable values to the parameters. Then main theorem reduces to H-function of two variables etc.

Technical Efficiency of Universities in Telangana State through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Approach

In this present research paper we analyze the universities data by CCR, BCC models through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach for the State of Telangana. To know the Performance of student’s university wise in state of Telangana. University wise Performances is presented along with technical efficiency, Pure Technical Efficiency, Scale Efficiency, CRS, VRS, Reference set and Peers. Measuring the Technical Efficiency (TE) and Pure Technical Efficiency (PTE) of the universities by CCR, BCC Model through DEA approach.

A Numerical Investigation of the Performance of Linear Interpolation Schemes Coupled Finite Volume Method in the Analysis of Confined Convection-Diffusion Turbulent Flow Field

Numerical solutions are never exact due to errors emanating from the scheme used in discretizing the governing equations and the flow domain. For convection-diffusion flow, the magnitude of these errors varies depending on the scheme used to interpolate the nodal values of the flow quantities to the interfaces. An interpolation scheme that minimizes these errors would give results that are consistent to experimental results. This paper documents the performance of three linear interpolation schemes; upwind differencing, central differencing scheme and the hybrid scheme in obtaining temperature profiles for a convection-diffusion turbulent flow field. To eliminate the enormous scales inherent in turbulent flow, the field variables present in the governing equations are decomposed into a mean and a fluctuating component and averaged. The closure problem was solved using the turbulence model. The resulting equations are discretized using the robust finite volume discretization technique. The discretized equations are solved using a segregated pressure-based algorithm. The results revealed that the central difference interpolation scheme generate temperature profiles that were consistent with experimental results of Ampofo and Karayiannis, (2003).

SARIMA Model for Forecasting Price Indices Fluctuations

In day-to-day life, the price level fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) goods and service. So, the retail consumers are affecting by that price level changes, who are on the demand side of the economy. The main objective of this work is to forecast such selected factors of CPI in urban and rural areas of India, like: Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants, Fuel and Light and Education and also compute the inflation rate for those four main variables in all India.

A study on Efficient Modelling in Higher Education Academic Workforce Using Simulation

This paper shows how the Operations Research (OR) tools (in modelling and simulation) can be modified, applied in planning and their understanding of any long-term impacts due to sudden policy changes. The proposed approach is particularly useful to investigate the movements of the university academics and their impacts on changes in research, research funding, teaching and services as they are the integral parts of the career at any level. We argue that the Discrete Event Simulation (DES) approach can be used to model such dynamics in Higher Education Academic Workforce Model (HEAWM) and show that it can provide a comprehensive projection of future requirements within the context of career progression. Consequently, this HEAWM allows universities to interrogate factors influencing the academic workforce planning as this process often requires the new attributes to be tracked in the model which is difficult with other OR models. It is shown that this approach is easy to apply via DES and creation of the corresponding HEAWM provides better understanding of the factors that will influence the future workforce than the existing results.

Conformal Fractional ((D_ξ^α G(ξ))/G(ξ) )- Expansion Method and Its Applications for Solving the Nonlinear Fractional Sharma-Tasso-Olver equation

In this article, we generalize the ((G^' (ξ))/G(ξ) )- expansion method which is one of the most important methods to finding the exact solutions of nonlinear partial differential equations. The new generalized method, named conformal fractional ((D_ξ^α G(ξ))/G(ξ) )-expansion method, takes advantage of Katugampola’s fractional derivative to create many useful traveling wave solutions of the nonlinear conformal fractional Sharma-Tasso-Olver equation. The obtained solutions have been articulated by the hyperbolic, trigonometric and rational functions with arbitrary constants. These solutions are algebraically verified using Maple and their physical characteristics are illustrated in some special cases.

Cosine Similarity Measure of Interval Valued Bipolar Neutrosophic Hesitant Fuzzy Set and Their Applications to Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Process

Cosine similarity measure plays a significant role in various fields. Literature consultation confirms that the theory of cosine similarity measure has received a great interest and attention from the researchers in the world. The concept of Interval Valued Bipolar Neutrosophic Hesitant Fuzzy Sets (IVBNHFS) is recently presented and very interesting. Every element in IVBNHFS is characterized by six independent membership functions (three positive and three negative). There is no investigation on the Cosine Similarity Measure (CSM) of IVBNHFS. In this study, we firstly define a CSM and a weighted CSM between two IVBNHFS and their applications to Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) process in the Interval Valued Bipolar Neutrosophic Hesitant Fuzzy (IVBNHF) setting. And, we establish some properties of CSM and a weighted CSM. We use this strategy to find out the best alternative in MADM case. Then, the new approach to clarify MADM problems in IVBNHF setting is presented in algorithmic form. And, we solve an illustrative case of MADM to demonstrate the effectiveness, workability, and appropriateness of the proposed approach. Finally, the main conclusion and future opportunity of research paper are overviewed and compiled.

Convex Structure in Generalized Fuzzy Metric Spaces

In this paper, we introduce the concept of convex structure in generalized fuzzy metric spaces and proved common fixed point theorems for a pair of self-mappings under sufficient contractive type conditions.