What are we voting for? Opposition alliance joint campaigns in electoral autocracies

2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882110323
Author(s):  
Elvin Ong
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Alliance Formation ◽  
Positive Material ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Ethnographic Observation ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Cross

Existing analyses of opposition pre-electoral alliance formation in electoral autocracies neglect their coordinated election campaigns against incumbent autocrats. This paper argues that opposition alliance joint campaigns can increase the salience of the anti-regime cleavage, signal mutual compromise, and highlight the positive material and policy gains voters will reap following regime defeat. Together, they persuade ideologically and ethnically disparate opposition supporters to engage in the cross-party strategic voting necessary to maximize opposition vote share and their chances of winning. Empirical findings from Malaysia’s historic 2018 general elections support the theory’s propositions. A pre-electoral survey experiment estimates that an opposition alliance’s joint campaigns increases cross-party strategic voting by about 10 percentage points among opposition voters. Field interviews and ethnographic observation during the election campaigning revealed the diverse methods and mechanisms of joint campaigns. Malaysia’s Pakatan Harapan opposition alliance eventually prevailed through a combination of joint campaigning against a flailing incumbent.

Nation, Locality and Radical Identity

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Petrie
Keyword(s):  
Working Class ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
The Political ◽  
Central Control ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Labour Movement ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Political Left ◽  
National Model ◽  
Selection Of

Concentrating upon the years between the 1924 and 1929 general elections, which separated the first and second minority Labour governments, this chapter traces the rise of a modernised, national vision of Labour politics in Scotland. It considers first the reworking of understandings of sovereignty within the Labour movement, as the autonomy enjoyed by provincial trades councils was circumscribed, and notions of Labour as a confederation of working-class bodies, which could in places include the Communist Party, were replaced by a more hierarchical, national model. The electoral consequences of this shift are then considered, as greater central control was exercised over the selection of parliamentary candidates and the conduct of election campaigns. This chapter presents a study of the changing horizons of the political left in inter-war Scotland, analysing the declining importance of locality in the construction of radical political identities.

scholarly journals Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Resul Umit
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.

Are voters' views about proportional outcomes shaped by partisan preferences? A survey experiment in the context of a real election

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
André Blais ◽  
Semra Sevi ◽  
Carolina Plescia
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Ultimate Outcome ◽  
The Government ◽  
Performance Conditions

Abstract We examine citizens' evaluations of majoritarian and proportional electoral outcomes through an innovative experimental design. We ask respondents to react to six possible electoral outcomes during the 2019 Canadian federal election campaign. There are two treatments: the performance of the party and the proportionality of electoral outcomes. There are three performance conditions: the preferred party's vote share corresponds to vote intentions as reported in the polls at the time of the survey (the reference), or it gets 6 percentage points more (fewer) votes. There are two electoral outcome conditions: disproportional and proportional. We find that proportional outcomes are slightly preferred and that these preferences are partly conditional on partisan considerations. In the end, however, people focus on the ultimate outcome, that is, who is likely to form the government. People are happy when their party has a plurality of seats and is therefore likely to form the government, and relatively unhappy otherwise. We end with a discussion of the merits and limits of our research design.

scholarly journals Do You Have COVID-19?: How to Increase the Use of Diagnostic and Contact-Tracing Apps

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Déborah Martínez ◽  
Cristina Parilli ◽  
Ana María Rojas ◽  
Carlos Scartascini ◽  
Alberto Simpser
Keyword(s):  
Data Privacy ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Promotion Policy ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Willingness To Adopt ◽  
Mexican Adults

Diagnostic and contact tracing apps are an important weapon against contagion during a pandemic. We study how the content of the messages used to promote the apps influences adoption by conducting a survey experiment on approximately 23,000 Mexican adults. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of three different prompts, or a control condition, before stating their willingness to adopt a diagnostic app and contact-tracing app. The prompt emphasizing government efforts to ensure data privacy, which has been one of the most common strategies, reduced willingness to adopt the diagnostic app by about 4 percentage points and the contact tracing app by 3 percentage points. An effective app promotion policy must understand individuals' reservations and be wary of unintended reactions to naive reassurances.

scholarly journals Candidate name order effects in New Hampshire: Evidence from primaries and from general elections with party column ballots

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248049
Author(s):  
Bo MacInnis ◽  
Joanne M. Miller ◽  
Jon A. Krosnick ◽  
Clifton Below ◽  
Miriam Lindner
Keyword(s):  
New Hampshire ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Primacy Effects ◽  
First Time

Research in a few U.S. states has shown that candidates listed first on ballots gain extra votes as a result. This study explored name order effects for the first time in New Hampshire, where such effects might be weak or entirely absent because of high political engagement and the use of party column ballots. In general elections (in 2012 and 2016) for federal offices and the governorship and in primaries (in 2000, 2002, and 2004), evidence of primacy effects appeared in 86% of the 84 tests, including the 2016 presidential race, when Donald Trump gained 1.7 percentage points from first listing, and Hillary Clinton gained 1.5 percentage points. Consistent with theoretical predictions, primacy effects were larger in primaries and for major-party candidates in general elections than for non-major-party candidates in general elections, more pronounced in less publicized contests, and stronger in contests without an incumbent running. All of this constitutes evidence of the reliability and generalizability of evidence on candidate name order effects and their moderators.

Independent Candidates and Political Representation in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 678-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
SACHA KAPOOR ◽  
ARVIND MAGESAN
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
The Political ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Independent Candidates

We estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in India. To do this, we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process, changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties. A one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points, as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home. The vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points, as some existing voters switch who they vote for. Thus, independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share, decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points, and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic-party candidate. Altogether, the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government.

Revolt on the left

2018 ◽  
pp. 34-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Labour Party ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Party Leadership ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn

This chapter offers an account of the Labour Party between the 2015 and 2017 general elections. It explains why Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader and how the party moved further to the left. It examines the very different responses to Corbyn’s leadership from within the party, and why he was both challenged for the party leadership by his MPs and able to defend his position with enormous support from the mass membership. It finishes by examining how, after languishing in the polls, Labour defied expectations on polling day by dramatically increasing its vote share.

scholarly journals What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

2015 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The U.S

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

Racial Prejudices, Racialized Workplaces, and Restaurant Servers’ Hyperbolic Perceptions of Black–White Tipping Differences

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary W. Brewster ◽  
Gerald Roman Nowak
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Factorial Survey ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Published Evidence ◽  
Black Consumers ◽  
Prejudicial Attitudes

On average, Black consumers have been reliably shown to tip restaurant servers less than their White counterparts, and this difference has been widely acknowledged to contribute to servers’ negative attitudes toward Black customers. However, studies centered on explicating the actual and perceived magnitude of Black–White tipping differences are scarce. Furthermore, there have been no studies conducted that have aimed to identify and test for individual and/or environmental factors that encourage the development and sustainment of exaggerated or stereotypic perceptions of interracial differences in customers’ tipping practices. In response, this study offers an unconditional meta-estimate of the Black–White tipping differential to this literature. Given the available published evidence, we estimate that as a percentage of the bill, the average Black customer is likely to leave a tip that is 3.30 percentage points less than would be left by a White customer. In addition, by analyzing data derived from a factorial survey experiment that was administered in two independent and demographically diverse samples of servers, this study demonstrates that servers’ perceptions of Black–White tipping differences are significantly shaped by racial antipathy and/or employment in a workplace characterized by anti-Black discourse and observed mistreatment of Black clientele. Taken as a whole, our results suggest that although a Black–White tipping difference does exist, there is a notable segment of the population of restaurant servers, namely, those who harbor prejudicial attitudes and/or work in racialized workplaces, who may cognitively exaggerate the magnitude of this difference. Thus, to curtail the industry challenges that stem from Black–White tipping differences (e.g., service discrimination, lawsuits), restaurant operators are encouraged to devise strategies to actively confront servers’ stereotypic perceptions of Black customers’ tipping behaviors.

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