An Ensemble-Variational Inversion System for the Estimation of Ammonia Emissions using CrIS Satellite Ammonia Retrievals

An ensemble-variational inversion system is developed for the estimation of ammonia emissions using ammonia retrievals from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) for use in the Global Environmental Multiscale – Modelling Air quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) chemical weather model. A novel hybrid method to compare logarithmic retrieval parameters to model profiles is presented. Inversions for the monthly mean ammonia emissions over North America were performed for May to August 2016. Inversions using the hybrid comparison method increased ammonia emissions at most locations within the model domain, with total monthly mean emissions increasing by 11–41 %. The use of these revised emissions in GEM-MACH reduced biases with surface ammonia observations by as much as 25 %. The revised ammonia emissions also improved the forecasts of total (fine+coarse) ammonium and nitrate and ammonium wet deposition, with biases decreasing by as much as 13 %, but did not improve the forecasts of just the fine components of ammonium and nitrate. An additional area of 1.3 × 105 km2 of upland forests in Canada were estimated to exceed the ecosystem's critical load due to the changes in ammonia deposition from the inversion. A comparison of biases resulting from inversions using different comparison methods shows favourable results for the hybrid comparison method.

Validation of the Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) for Iran

The Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) is an integrated forecasting and data assimilation system developed by Environment and Climate Change Canada. The model is currently in operational use for data assimilation and forecasting at global 25 km to 15 km scales; regional 10 km scales over North America; and 2.5 km scales over Canada. To demonstrate the performance of the GEM model for forecasting applications, global forecast outputs of GEM at the 25 km scale were compared to temperature and precipitation datasets collected over an area of 1,648,000 km2 especially representative of the country of Iran on a daily temporal scale. Using the De Martonne method for climate classification and data from 177 meteorological stations, the country of Iran was classified into three zones: an arid zone with 87 stations; a semi-arid zone with 63 stations; and a humid zone with 27 stations. GEM model outputs were compared to observations in each of these demarcated zones. The results show good agreement between modelled and measured daily temperatures with Kling-Gupta efficiencies of 0.76, 0.71 and 0.78 in arid, semi-arid and humid regions respectively, and a moderate agreement between modelled and measured annual precipitation with 50.06%, 35.6% and 15.38% differences in arid, semi-arid and humid regions, respectively. The results also indicate that there is a significant systematic error between the elevation of the stations and the average elevation of corresponding GEM grid cells (13%). The results provide an evaluation of the model performance for Iran to be utilized for climate change applications in a regional context and can serve as a basis for the development of future high-resolution GEM model versions on a global scale.

On the Progressive Attenuation of Finescale Orography Contributions to the Vertical Coordinate Surfaces within a Terrain-Following Coordinate System

A modified hybrid terrain-following vertical coordinate has recently been implemented within the Global Environmental Multiscale atmospheric model that introduces separately controlled height-dependent progressive decaying of the small- and large-scale orography contributions on the vertical coordinate surfaces. The new vertical coordinate allows for a faster decay of the finescale orography imprints on the coordinate surfaces with increasing height while relaxing the compression of the lowest model levels over complex terrain. A number of tests carried out—including experiments involving Environment and Climate Change Canada’s operational regional and global deterministic prediction systems—demonstrate that the new vertical coordinate effectively eliminates terrain-induced spurious generation and amplification of upper-air vertical motion and kinetic energy without increasing the computational cost. Results also show potential improvements in precipitation over complex terrain.

A New Dynamical Core of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model with a Height-Based Terrain-Following Vertical Coordinate

A new dynamical core of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model is presented. Unlike the existing log-hydrostatic-pressure-type terrain-following vertical coordinate, the proposed core adopts a height-based approach. The move to a height-based vertical coordinate is motivated by its potential for improving model stability over steep terrain, which is expected to become more prevalent with the increasing demand for very high-resolution forecasting systems. A dynamical core with height-based vertical coordinate generally requires an iterative solution approach. In addition to a three-dimensional iterative solver, a simplified approach has been devised allowing the use of a direct solver for the new dynamical core that separates a three-dimensional elliptic boundary value problem into a set of two-dimensional independent Helmholtz problems. The issue of dynamics–physics coupling has also been studied, and incorporating the physics tendencies within the discretized dynamical equations is found to be the most acceptable approach for the height-based vertical coordinate. The new dynamical core is evaluated using numerical experiments that include two-dimensional nonhydrostatic theoretical cases as well as 25-km resolution global forecasts. For a wide range of horizontal grid resolutions—from a few meters to up to 25 km—the results from the direct solution approach are found to be equivalent to the iterative approach for the new dynamical core. Furthermore, results from the different numerical experiments confirm that the new height-based dynamical core is equivalent to the existing pressure-based core in terms of solution accuracy.

Staggered Vertical Discretization of the Canadian Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model Using a Coordinate of the Log-Hydrostatic-Pressure Type

The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model is the Canadian atmospheric model used for meteorological forecasting at all scales. A limited-area version now also exists. It is a gridpoint model with an implicit semi-Lagrangian iterative space–time integration scheme. In the “horizontal,” the equations are written in spherical coordinates with the traditional shallow atmosphere approximations and are discretized on an Arakawa C grid. In the “vertical,” the equations were originally defined using a hydrostatic-pressure coordinate and discretized on a regular (unstaggered) grid, a configuration found to be particularly susceptible to noise. Among the possible alternatives, the Charney–Phillips grid, with its unique characteristics, and, as the vertical coordinate, log-hydrostatic pressure are adopted. In this paper, an attempt is made to justify these two choices on theoretical grounds. The resulting equations and their vertical discretization are described and the solution method of what is forming the new dynamical core of GEM is presented, focusing on these two aspects.

The Australian bushfires of February 2009: MIPAS observations and GEM-AQ model results

Starting on 7 February 2009, southeast Australia was devastated by large bushfires, which burned an area of about 3000 km2 on this day alone. This event was extraordinary, because a large number of combustion products were transported into the uppermost troposphere and lower stratosphere within a few days. Various biomass burning products released by the fire were observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the Envisat satellite. We tracked the plume using MIPAS C2H2, HCN and HCOOH single-scan measurements on a day-to-day basis. The measurements were compared with a high-resolution model run of the Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality (GEM-AQ) model. Generally there is good agreement between the spatial distribution of measured and modelled pollutants. Both MIPAS and GEM-AQ show a fast southeastward transport of the pollutants to New Zealand within one day. During the following 3–4 days, the plume remained northeastward of New Zealand and was located at altitudes of 15 to 18 km. Thereafter its lower part was transported eastward, followed by westward transport of its upper part. On 17 February the eastern part had reached southern South America and on 20 February the central South Atlantic. On the latter day a second relic of the plume was observed moving eastward above the South Pacific. Between 20 February and the first week of March, the upper part of the plume was transported westward over Australia and the Indian Ocean towards southern Africa. First evidence for entry of the pollutants into the stratosphere was found in MIPAS data of 11 February, followed by larger amounts on 17 February and the days thereafter. From MIPAS data, C2H2/HCN and HCOOH/HCN enhancement ratios of 0.76 and 2.16 were calculated for the first days after the outbreak of the fires, which are considerably higher than the emission ratios assumed for the model run and at the upper end of values found in literature. From the temporal decrease of the enhancement ratios, mean lifetimes of 16–20 days and of 8–9 days were calculated for measured C2H2 and HCOOH. The respective lifetimes calculated from the model data are 18 and 12 days.

Integrating NWP Forecasts and Observation Data to Improve Nowcasting Accuracy

This study addresses the issue of improving nowcasting accuracy by integrating several numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts with observation data. To derive the best algorithms for generating integrated forecasts, different integration methods were applied starting with integrating the NWP models using equal weighting. Various refinements are then successively applied including dynamic weighting, variational bias correction, adjusted dynamic weighting, and constraints using current observation data. Three NWP models—the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) regional model, the GEM Limited Area Model (LAM), and the American Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model—are used to generate the integrated forecasts. Verification is performed at two Canadian airport locations [Toronto International Airport (CYYZ), in Ontario, and Vancouver International Airport (CYVR), in British Columbia] over the winter and summer seasons. The results from the verification for four weather variables (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and gust) clearly show that the integrated models with new refinements almost always perform better than each of the NWP models individually and collectively. When the integrated model with innovative dynamic weighting and variational bias correction is further updated with the most current observation data, its performance is the best among all models, for all the selected variables regardless of location and season. The results of this study justify the use of integrated NWP forecasts for nowcasting provided they are properly integrated using appropriate and specifically designed rules and algorithms.

The Australian bush fires of February 2009: MIPAS observations and GEM-AQ model results

On 7 February 2009, and the following days Southeast Australia was devastated by large bush fires, which burned an area of about 3000 km2. This event was extraordinary, because a large number of combustion products was transported into the uppermost troposphere and lower stratosphere within a few days. Various biomass burning products released by the fire were observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the ENVISAT satellite. We track the plume using MIPAS C2H2, HCN and HCOOH single-scan measurements on a day-to-day basis. The measurements are compared with a high-resolution model run of the Global Environmental Multiscale-Air Quality (GEM-AQ) model. Generally there is very good agreement between the spatial distribution of measured and modelled pollutants during the first two weeks after the outbreak of the fire even over intercontinental distances. Both MIPAS and GEM-AQ show a fast south-eastward transport of the pollutants to New Zealand within one day. During the following 3–4 days the plume was located north and eastward of New Zealand and centered at altitudes of 15 to 18 km. Thereafter its eastern part was transported eastward at altitudes of 15–16 km, followed by westward transport of its western part at somewhat higher altitudes. On 17 February the eastern part had reached Southern South America and on 20 February the South African west coast. On the latter day a second relic of the plume was observed moving eastward above the Southern Pacific, whereas the westward transported pollutants were located above Australia at altitudes of 18–20 km. First evidence for entry of the pollutants into the stratosphere was found in MIPAS data of 11 February, followed by larger amounts on 17 February and the days thereafter. Between 20 February and the first week of March the stratospheric pollutants above Australia were transported further westward over the Indian Ocean towards Southern Africa.