Kondratieff Waves and Technological Modes in Australia`s Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 40-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Third ◽  
Maximum Productivity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Xix Century ◽  
Technological Mode ◽  
Fourth Mode

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to determine the time of beginning of Kondratieff waves and origin of new technological modes and their productivity. The regression analysis of the time series of Australia real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 allowed to determine the date of beginning of the third, fourth and fifth half-waves of Kondratieff cycles and the date of origin of the fourth, fifth and sixth technological modes in Australia`s economy. The results of the analysis showed that the origin of the fourth technological mode in Australia`s economy occurred in the late XIX century, the fifth — in the 1950s, the sixth — in the late XX century. The modeling of technological modes` productivity allowed determining the productivity of relict and modern technological modes in the economy of Australia. The results showed that the productivity of relict modes in Australia`s economy is 3465 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the fourth mode is 4437 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990, the fifth — 8874 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the sixth mode in the economy of Australia is 26 888 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The results of the research may be used in order to evaluate the productivity of modern technological modes in Russian economy.

On the Results of Studying Kondratieff Waves in the Economy of Spain

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 58-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Early 20Th Century ◽  
Spanish Economy ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Third ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Technological Mode

The paper presents the results of the analysis of Spain`s economic dynamics in order to identify periods of of Kondratieff waves and the dates of origin of new technological modes. Through the regression analysis of the time series of Spain’s real per capita GDP for the period from 1850 to 2008, the author determines the dates of origin of the third, the fourth and the fifth Kondratieff waves and also the dates of origin of the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes in the Spanish economy. The results obtained shows, that the fourth technological mode in Spain`s economy occurred in the early 20th century, the fifth mode — in the 1950s, while the sixth mode began in the late 20th century. The results of the research can be helpful for constructing models of technological modes` productivity in Spain.

Kondratieff Cycles in Developed Economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 9-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 19Th Century

The objective of this paper is to identify Kondratieff cycles in the developed economies. Time series spectral analysis of real per capita GDP of the developed countries and Brazil is performed. Also studied are time series for the period from the 19th century to 2008. As a result Kondratieff cycles (waves) are found out in the economic dynamics of all the countries surveyed, except for Finland. The power of Kondratieff cycles in the economic dynamics is estimated to fall in the range of 23 to 61% of the total power of all economic cycles with the periods of 2 to 100 years. The Kondratieff cycles can be found in a number of economies in the period of 19th — 20th centuries. It allows to distinguish the three moderntime Kondratieff waves in the said countries and to evaluate productivity of the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies. However in a number of countries the Kondratieff cycles show up only in the 20th century. So for these countries only one or two modern Kondratieff waves can be clearly identified, making it possible to evaluate productivity of only the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies.

The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to identify Kondratiev waves (cycles). The analysis of the time series of real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 had revealed the presence of cycles of economic dynamics with a period of about 50 years, which can be identified as Kondratieff cycles (waves). The results of the analysis showed that the formation of Kondratieff cycles in the Australian economy occurred in the late XIX — early XX century. The maximum value of these cycles` potency was reached in the middle of XX century, then their potency began to fall. The results of the research may be used in order to determine the time of beginning of these cycles and correlation between Kondratieff cycles and dominant technological modes.

Efficiency of Technological Modes in the Economy of the United Kingdom

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 13-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Third ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Half Wave ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Technological Mode

Through modeling the Kondratieff waves (cycles) the authors show, that the upward half-wave of the third Kondratieff wave in the economic dynamics of the UK emerged in 1887. Further, in 1926 emerged the upward half-wave of the fourth Kondratieff wave in the economic dynamics of the UK. The upward halfwave of the fifth Kondratieff wave in Britain’s economy emerged in 1985. The fifth wave is in place till nowadays. Modeling of technological modes has allowed to assess their efficiency as concerning the economy of the UK. The efficiency of relic modes, measured in terms of per capita GDP equals to £2805 measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the fourth technological mode equals to £1328, measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the fifth technological mode reaches £8739 measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the sixth technological mode for the economy of the UK reaches £19 811 measured in 2005 pounds sterling.

The Results of Studying Long Economic Waves in the Kingdom of Denmark Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 64-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Research Results ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Third ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The paper presents the research results of Kondratieff cycles in the economy of Denmark based on the real per capita GDP dynamics over the period of 1820– 2008. The use of economic and mathematical modeling allowed to define the chronological frameworks of the third, the fourth and the fifth waves of economic cycles with the 50-years period.

Comparative Study on BRIC Carbon Dioxide Emissions - Econometric Empirical Test Based on Cross-Century Time Series Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 616-618 ◽  
pp. 1512-1515
Author(s):  
Wei Hua Du
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Per Capita

Take for example the BRIC economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China. We investigated the time series data on the relationship between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in these fast-growing developing countries by both comparative statics and comparative dynamics. The results show that there is the monotonic relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and per capita GDP in any one of the BRIC countries. And there is decreasing relationship between the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP and per capita GDP.

scholarly journals From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527–1850

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuno Palma ◽  
Jaime Reis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
European Standards ◽  
European Economies ◽  
First Time

We construct the first time-series for Portugal’s per capita GDP for 1527–1850, drawing on a new database. Starting in the early 1630s there was a highly persistent upward trend which accelerated after 1710 and peaked 40 years later. At that point, per capita income was high by European standards, though behind the most advanced Western European economies. But as the second half of the eighteenth century unfolded, a phase of economic decline was initiated. This continued into the nineteenth century, and by 1850 per capita incomes were not different from what they had been in the early 1530s.

New Technological Ways in the Regions of Russia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Post Industrial

Distribution of new — the fifth and sixth technological ways in economy of regions of Russia is investigated. For economic evaluation of technological structures hysterical time series of real per capita GDP of Great Britain are used. Construction of econometric models of cyclical trends has allowed establishing the date of the beginning of the upward half-waves of the fourth and fifth Kondratieff cycles. For the construction of econometric models of technological structures was assumed that the beginning of upward half-waves cycles coincide with the beginning of the upward wave of new orders, since the beginning of the dominance of another way of life and a torque of the withering away of the old order. We used piecewise linear model orders. By the simulation it was found, that the relic and fourth technological orders provide a contribution to real GDP per capita value of 4000 Gehry-Hemis dollars in 1990. The contribution of the new — the fifth and sixth in the Russian economy is estimated as the excess of the value of real per capita GDP over the contribution of relic and fourth technological structures, evaluated according to the UK. This has allowed for the first time to give an economic assessment of the contribution of new orders in the Russian economy. It now has exceeded 50%. By degree of distribution of new ways in the groups of regions is irregular. The regional group in the economy where new ways are not observed, the economic policy directed to the continued industrialization. In the regions, where new ways make contribution to the economies, economic policy should focus on the development of post-industrial economies.

The Finnish Economy Through the Prism of the Theory of Long Waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 16-22
Author(s):  
Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Иванова ◽  
O. Ivanova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Long Waves ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Third ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The article presents the research results of Kondratieff cycles in the economy of Finland on the basis of real GDP per capita over the period of 1860–2008 years. The using of economic and mathematical modeling has allowed estimating the power of long duration business cycles, revealing the chronological framework of long waves: the third, fourth and fifth. Kondratieff’s theory has served as a methodological basis for the study of processes: the emergence, the domination and the withering away of technological structures. Regression analysis has allowed establishing the productivity of different technological structures in the Finnish economy.

Forecasting the Transition of the Economy of the Russian Federation to the Dominance of the Fifth Techno-Economic Paradigm

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 10-14
Author(s):  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Татьяна Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Елена Басовская ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Development Trends ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The purpose of the work was to assess the timing of the transition of the Russian economy and the economy of individual regions of Russia to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. The contribution of the fifth technical and economic paradigm in the per capita GDP is given. Based on econometric models of economic dynamics, the time of the beginning of the domination of the fifth techno-economic paradigm in the economy of regions is estimated. The economy of individual regions has already passed to the domination of the fifth technoeconomic paradigm. In the economy of a large part of the regions, the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm can expected many years and decades hence. Estimates of the expected timeframe for the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm are received, based on the assumption of the preservation of economic development trends in 2001–2015.

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