Keyboard Model of Seismic Cycle of Great Earthquakes in Subduction Zones: Simulation Results and Further Generalization

Catastrophic megaearthquakes (M > 8) occurring in the subduction zones are among the most devastating hazards on the planet. In this paper we discuss the seismic cycles of the megathrust earthquakes and propose a blockwise geomechanical model explaining certain features of the stress-deformation cycle revealed in recent decades from seismological and satellite geodesy (GNSS) observations. Starting with an overview of the so-called keyboard model of the seismic cycle by L. Lobkovsky, we outline mathematical formalism describing the motion of seismogenic block system assuming viscous rheology beneath and between the neighboring elastic blocks sitting on top of the subducting slab. By summarizing the GNSS-based evidence from our previous studies concerning the transient motions associated with the 2006–2007 Simushir earthquakes, 2010 Maule earthquake, and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we demonstrate that those data support the keyboard model and reveal specific effect of the postseismic oceanward motion. However, since the seismogenic blocks in subduction systems are mostly located offshore, the direct analysis of GNSS-measured displacements and velocities is hardly possible in terms of the original keyboard model. Hence, the generalized two-segment keyboard model is introduced, containing both frontal offshore blocks and rear onshore blocks, which allows for direct interpretation of the onshore-collected GNSS data. We present a numerical computation scheme and a series of simulated data, which exhibits the consistency with measured motions and enables estimating the seismic cycle characteristics, important for the long-term earthquake forecasting.

Transient Deformation and Stress Patterns Induced by the 2010 Maule Earthquake in the Illapel Segment

Evaluating the transfer of stresses from megathrust earthquakes to adjacent segments is fundamental to assess seismic hazard. Here, we use a 3D forward model as well as GPS and seismic data to investigate the transient deformation and Coulomb Failure Stresses (CFS) changes induced by the 2010 Maule earthquake in its northern segment, where the Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake occurred in 2015. The 3D model incorporates the coseismically instantaneous, elastic response, and time-dependent afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation processes in the postseismic period. We particularly examine the impact of linear and power-law rheology on the resulting postseismic deformation and CFS changes that may have triggered the Illapel earthquake. At the Illapel hypocenter, our model results in CFS changes of ∼0.06 bar due to the coseismic and postseismic deformation, where the coseismic deformation accounts for ∼85% of the total CFS changes. This is below the assumed triggering threshold of 0.1 bar and, compared to the annual loading rate of the plate interface, represents a clock advance of approximately only 2 months. However, we find that sixteen events with Mw ≥ 5 in the southern region occurred in regions of CFS changes > 0.1 bar, indicating a potential triggering by the Maule event. Interestingly, while the power-law rheology model increases the positive coseismic CFS changes, the linear rheology reduces them. This is due to the opposite polarity of the postseismic displacements resulting from the rheology model choice. The power-law rheology model generates surface displacements that fit better to the GPS-observed landward displacement pattern.

Seismic and Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model for Buildings in Chile

This article proposes a vulnerability assessment model for evaluating buildings’ expected seismic performance, as well as their vulnerability to tsunamis. The objective of this assessment is to provide appropriate information for decision makers regarding the need of repairs and reinforcement of buildings or other mitigation measures that need to be applied in a territory. A procedure for assessing seismic vulnerability and another methodology for evaluating tsunami vulnerability faced by coastal structures is presented. Finally, a method that integrates both procedures is proposed, providing a combined index of vulnerability. The assessment model was applied to the central area of the city of Talcahuano, Chile, which was affected by the 2010 Maule earthquake and tsunami.

Presence and significance of backstops in the overriding plate during the megathrust earthquake cycle

<p>Seismological and geodetic observations indicate that similar physical processes are active at different subduction margins and provide information about the deformation at the different stages of the earthquake cycle. We analyze geodetic observations along sections of the South American subduction zone during the inter-seismic stage. Results show that overriding plates shorten from the trench to a “backstop”, where horizontal inter-seismic velocities become close to zero. In most, but not all regions, the backstop location from trench-perpendicular GPS velocities agrees with that from trench-parallel velocities. The distance of the backstop from the trench varies along the western South America margin. Backstop locations shows some correlation with gradients in the effective elastic thickness of the overriding plate. An apparently conflicting observation is that co-seismic and early post-seismic GPS-displacements during the 2010 Maule earthquake extended well beyond the backstop into eastern South America. Similarly conflicting observations were made in the overriding plate of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.</p><p>We use cyclic 3D numerical models with dynamically driven co-seismic and afterslip to test the hypothesis that lateral contrasts in the thickness and/or elasticity of the overriding plate explain the observations. The model setup allows us to explore the sensitivity of geodetically observable surface motion to the mechanical structure of the subduction system during all parts of the earthquake cycle. We conclude that the observations can be explained by a lateral contrast. Such contrast restricts inter-seismic horizontal velocities in the region between the trench and the backstop, controlling their gradient, while allowing deformation due to coseismic slip and afterslip to reach well into the far field. One particularly interesting finding from our models is that stress accumulation in the overriding plate is controlled by the distance to the backstop.</p>

Evolution of seismic design codes of highway bridges in Chile

Chile, as a country with a long history of strong seismicity, has a record of both a constant upgrading of its seismic design codes and structural systems, particularly for bridges, as a result of major earthquakes. Recent earthquakes in Chile have produced extensive damage to highway bridges, such as deck collapses, large transverse residual displacements, yielding and failure of shear keys, and unseating of the main girders, demonstrating that bridges are highly vulnerable structures. Much of this damage can be attributed to construction problems and poor detailing guidelines in design codes. After the 2010 Maule earthquake, new structural design criteria were incorporated for the seismic design of bridges in Chile. The most significant change was that a site coefficient was included for the estimation of the seismic design forces in the shear keys, seismic bars, and diaphragms. This article first traces the historical development of earthquakes and construction systems in Chile to provide a context for the evolution of Chilean seismic codes. It then describes the seismic performance of highway bridges during the 2010 Maule earthquake, including the description of the main failure modes observed in bridges. Finally, this article provides a comparison of the Chilean bridge seismic code against the Japanese and United States codes, considering that these codes have a great influence on the seismic codes for Chilean bridges. The article demonstrates that bridge design and construction practices in Chile have evolved substantially in their requirements for the analysis and design of structural elements, such as in the definition of the seismic hazard to be considered, tending toward more conservative approaches in an effort to improve structural performance and reliability for Chilean bridges.

Seismic rate variations prior to the 2010 Maule, Chile MW 8.8 giant megathrust earthquake

The MW 8.8 Maule earthquake is the largest well-recorded megathrust earthquake reported in South America. It is known to have had very few foreshocks due to its locking degree, and a strong aftershock activity. We analyze seismic activity in the area of the 27 February 2010, MW 8.8 Maule earthquake at different time scales from 2000 to 2019. We differentiate the seismicity located inside the coseismic rupture zone of the main shock from that located in the areas surrounding the rupture zone. Using an original spatial and temporal method of seismic comparison, we find that after a period of seismic activity, the rupture zone at the plate interface experienced a long-term seismic quiescence before the main shock. Furthermore, a few days before the main shock, a set of seismic bursts of foreshocks located within the highest coseismic displacement area is observed. We show that after the main shock, the seismic rate decelerates during a period of 3 years, until reaching its initial interseismic value. We conclude that this megathrust earthquake is the consequence of various preparation stages increasing the locking degree at the plate interface and following an irregular pattern of seismic activity at large and short time scales.

Using Earthquake Forensics to Study Subduction from Space

Researchers combined satellite geodetic measurements of surface motion with a new geophysical data inversion method to probe the Chilean subduction zone in the wake of the 2010 Maule earthquake.

Benchmarking the Optimal Time Alignment of Tsunami Waveforms in Nonlinear Joint Inversions for the Mw 8.8 2010 Maule (Chile) Earthquake

Finite-fault models for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake indicate bilateral rupture with large-slip patches located north and south of the epicenter. Previous studies also show that this event features significant slip in the shallow part of the megathrust, which is revealed through correction of the forward tsunami modeling scheme used in tsunami inversions. The presence of shallow slip is consistent with the coseismic seafloor deformation measured off the Maule region adjacent to the trench and confirms that tsunami observations are particularly important for constraining far-offshore slip. Here, we benchmark the method of Optimal Time Alignment (OTA) of the tsunami waveforms in the joint inversion of tsunami (DART and tide-gauges) and geodetic (GPS, InSAR, land-leveling) observations for this event. We test the application of OTA to the tsunami Green’s functions used in a previous inversion. Through a suite of synthetic tests we show that if the bias in the forward model is comprised only of delays in the tsunami signals, the OTA can correct them precisely, independently of the sensors (DART or coastal tide-gauges) and, to the first-order, of the bathymetric model used. The same suite of experiments is repeated for the real case of the 2010 Maule earthquake where, despite the results of the synthetic tests, DARTs are shown to outperform tide-gauges. This gives an indication of the relative weights to be assigned when jointly inverting the two types of data. Moreover, we show that using OTA is preferable to subjectively correcting possible time mismatch of the tsunami waveforms. The results for the source model of the Maule earthquake show that using just the first-order modeling correction introduced by OTA confirms the bilateral rupture pattern around the epicenter, and, most importantly, shifts the inferred northern patch of slip to a shallower position consistent with the slip models obtained by applying more complex physics-based corrections to the tsunami waveforms. This is confirmed by a slip model refined by inverting geodetic and tsunami data complemented with a denser distribution of GPS data nearby the source area. The models obtained with the OTA method are finally benchmarked against the observed seafloor deformation off the Maule region. We find that all of the models using the OTA well predict this offshore coseismic deformation, thus overall, this benchmarking of the OTA method can be considered successful.