FEATURES OF THE FORECAST OF THE DYNAMICS OF SPRING FLOW ON THE COASTAL ZONE OF IVANKOVO RESERVOIR

Ivankovo reservoir is the main source of drinking water supply in Moscow. Its coastal zone, where different types of springs are unloaded, is a barrier (or source) for the entry of pollutants into the reservoir. The aim of this research is to forecast increments in descending springs water flow and to evaluate trends of hydrochemical indicators (calcium, magnesium ions, hydrocarbonates and chlorine) of springs water quality over 13 years. The basis of the work are materials of regime observations on reference spring located on the Volga II floodplain terrace, for the period 2006-2018. When processing hydrochemical data in order to compare the results, two approaches were used. One is separation of data array into two groups in chronological order (2006-2012 and 2013- 2018), the other – is arrangement according to water content of the year, where the first group is the years of low and medium water content, the second is high. It is proposed to describe the relationship between amount of precipitation and increment of flow rate by an ordinary differential equation, which will allow to predict the flow rate of the downstream springs of the region using amount of precipitation in increments by the next six months. The obtained result was verified on groundwater level regime data for the well 3020, drilled on the II floodplain terrace, for the period 2001-2003. The maximum correlation coefficient between the increment of the groundwater level and the amount of precipitation is observed at a similar step. When analyzing the equation, the value of the amount of precipitation was obtained, which separates the mode of increasing or decreasing the flow rate of the spring (groundwater level). For the spring, this figure is 296, for the well – 316 mm. A statistical analysis of long-term dynamics of the spring runoff hydrochemical components showed that a median value is a more sensitive characteristic to changes in external conditions than an arithmetic average for hydrocarbonates and calcium. An upward direction shift of the median value of bicarbonates and calcium ions concentration in spring waters was revealed when using a nonparametric criterion. The long-term average gradient was 1 mg dm-3 year-1 for bicarbonates, and 0.17 mg dm-3 year-1 for calcium. The approaches used to divide the data into groups for calcium and magnesium give different estimates of trends, for hydrocarbons they were the same, for chlorides they are contradictory. Statistical analysis of the data, separated in chronological order, showed that for calcium and magnesium there was a significant upward trend, while with the approach for water availability of year no trends were found.

VISUALIZATION OF APPLIED CLIMATIC INFORMATION FOR USERS

Based on open source data various ways to visualize climate information on maps have been analyzed in terms of convenience for final users who are often not climate scientists. The variety of imaging methods as well as their main advantages and disadvantages are shown. On the examples of the constituent entities of three Federal districts (Central Northwestern and North Caucasian) versions of adding or replacing cartographic information are proposed with the help of diagrams to facilitate a comparison of indicators and perception of results. Several meteorological parameters have been analyzed in each constituent entity of the Russian Federation: average annual surface air temperature, average annual amount of precipitation and the difference between precipitation and evaporation, as well as cloud cover for the summer and winter seasons. Graphs of changes of this parameter for three periods of time (base 1981-2000, as well as 2041-2060 and 2080-2099 of the RCP8.5 scenario) successfully perform the function of comparing climate information for different constituent entities and regions for various years and show the variability more clearly than the source cards.

ASSESSMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION WITH COPPER IN BACKGROUND AREAS OF THE EUROPE

The state of copper pollution of atmospheric air and precipitation in the background regions of the Europe was considered according to data obtained in 2015 and in 2016 at 50 observation stations operating according to the programs: “A joint program of observations and assessment of the long-range transport of air pollutants in Europe” (EMEP), and “Comprehensive Background Monitoring ”(CPM) in the European territory of Russia. The main sources are identified and the volumes of global anthropogenic copper emission into the atmosphere are given. It was shown that in most of the background areas of the Europe a low copper content in atmospheric air and precipitation is observed, varying within the limits of monthly mean concentrations of 0.02-6.6 ng/m3 in air and 0.5-4.2 µg/dm3 in precipitation. Stable patterns of seasonal changes in copper concentrations in the air and precipitation have not been identified. Copper enrichment factors for atmospheric aerosols relative to Clark's element in the Earth's crust showed extremely weak influence of anthropogenic copper on the state of atmospheric pollution in background areas. The field of spatial distribution of copper concentrations in atmospheric air is characterized by a tendency of growth from the Scandinavian countries towards the continental and further eastward. In atmospheric precipitation a mosaic pattern is observed

ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS EFFECT ON THE FORMATION OF FORESTS IN THE MOSCOW REGION

Changes in forest management tasks in the Moscow region over 120 years from the end of the XIX century are considered. The analysis of forest exploitation from 1946 to 2018 is given. The principles of forest management have changed conceptually at least three times over the past 120 years. As a result of assigning all the forests of the Moscow region to protective categories, legally imposed restrictive measures have been introduced in forest territories that are largely occupied by artificial plantings, which initially characterized by a simplified structure and reduced thresholds of natural stability. There is an increase in the average age of plantings, the accumulation of standing volume of mature and overmature stands, particularly vulnerable to environmental hazards, the frequency and intensity of which will increase due to projected climate change. Currently, the forests of the Moscow region are losing their protective properties, and their environmental, sanitary, and recreational potential is decreasing. Standing volume of ripe and overmature forests increased 7 times over 50 years before the mass dying off and breakdown of stands related to the 2010 drought, including 25 times in coniferous forests. At the same time, the average age of plantings has almost doubled: from 36 years in 1966 to 62 years in 2016. In the case of mass dying off forests in large areas, forestry is not able to quickly solve the problems that arise. This leads to significant losses of wood, which has time to completely lose its liquidity before it is harvested by sanitary logging, and to large costs for the disposal of this wood. Variants of forest management and reforestation aimed at the formation of sustainable protective forest stands are proposed. The expediency of using natural regeneration in reforestation is proved. On the example of research on stationary objects in the National park "Losiny Ostrov" and “Shchelkovsky” educational and experimental forestry district shows a tendency to a significant increase in the natural renewal of broad-leaved species, primarily linden and Norway maple. In recent decades, complex spruce forests have been replaced by broad-leaved communities in National park "Losiny Ostrov". In General, in "Losiny Ostrov" since 1891, the area of stands with the dominance of linden trees, their age and standing volume are constantly growing. The initial stages of changing spruce forests linden ones are also marked on the territory of the “Shchelkovsky” educational and experimental forestry district. These trends should be taken into account when drawing up long-term forest management plans.

POTENTIAL POSSIBILITIES OF PERMISSION OF THE ITALIAN LOCUST IN THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE XXI CENTURY IN CONNECTION WITH OBSERVED AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

Estimates of the possibility of invasion of the dangerous herd pest the Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus L.) into various constituent entities of the Russian Federation are carried out. For that the calculations of the climatic predictor values and further modeling of the Italian locust climatic range were made for the periods 1951-1970 and 1991-2010, using the real climatic data, and for the periods of the middle and end of the XXI century (2035-2054 and 2080-2099) relative to the period 1981-2000. The future climate data were calculated on the base of the average model climate for 31 CMIP5 models with the development of a “moderate” scenario of anthropogenic impact on the Earth’s climate system RCP4.5. According to the data obtained, the climatic range of the Italian locust will expand significantly into the more northern and northeastern regions of our country, and individual foci can appear in the eastern, including Far Eastern, regions by the middle and the end of the XXI century. The expansion of the real range of Calliptamus italicus L., observed at the beginning of the XXI century, associated with the already occurred change in climatic conditions, is consistent with model calculations, and many regions of Russia that are part of the potential climatic model range of this locust pest have already become favorable for its location. Therefore it is necessary to monitor constantly the status of pest populations in areas adjacent to the northern and eastern borders of its range.

PRIMARY INFORMATION ABOUT LICHENS OF THE “LEKSHMOKH” STATE NATURE RESERVE

The state nature complex (landscape) nature reserve of regional importance “Lekshmokh” (Arkhangelsk region) was created on June 14, 2019. It adjoins the borders of the Kenozersky National Park. Its area is 25248.7 ha. The watershed territory of the reserve is extremely important for the ecological balance of the ecosystems of the Kenozersky National Park and the drainage basins of the Onega, Kena, Lacha, Lekshmozero and Kenozero lakes. During the course of their development, the marshes of the reserve and the forest-bog complexes located inside them and framing them formed a bog system unique to the Kargopol region in terms of floristic diversity. Until now, the lichenobiota of the Lekshmoh reserve has remained virtually unexplored. The purpose of this study is to study the lichens of the Lekshmokh reserve as important components of biota. During the primary survey of the State Nature Complex Lekshmokh reserve, 96 species of lichens were noted. For each species, abundance is given on a 5-point scale. Among the lichens of the reserve, two species from the Red Book of the Arkhangelsk Region are noted: Bryoria fremontii and Lobaria pulmonaria. A large number of types of indicators of air purity are growing in the reserve: Usnea, Bryoria, Evernia, etc. This indicates the ecological value of the reserve, located away from industrial centers. Based on the reserve, a background environmental monitoring system studies are possible.

STRUCTURE OF SERRIED LARCH CANOPY IN THE NORTHEAST OF EURASIA

The structure of larch canopy on the microcommunity level is described in terms of direct contact of its elements. In case of adjacent growth genetic range of species should be maximally implemented by morphological features (linear dimensions, crown architectonics etc.) and environmental properties, particularly light conditions, which is confirmed by our results. The analysis was performed in compact biogroups of 10 trees taken as models in close-canopy larch stands of Khabarovsk and Magadan region. In general, the ratio of height and crown indexes is represented by four options: (a) leader in height with a short crown, (b) the same with an extended crown; c) stunted with a short crown, d) the same with a long crown. Light-demanding individuals can not have too long crown; either, if circumstances and genetic potential allow, they occupy a leading position (a) or become candidates for decease (с). More shade-tolerant trees with a relatively long crown look quite vital both when forestall neighbors in growth (b) and lagging from these (d). In some biogroups trees with heights less than average in the mean proved to be elder than dominants; i.e. the differentiation of trees in the process of coenogenesis into predominating, indifferent and depressed, the latter being almost doomed to extinction, does not look evident and unconditional. Individual ecological differences can have some economic value as a basis for selection, if we confirm the version that more light-demanding plants not only can achieve greater heights, but will do it quicker, i.e. will give a more precocious wood.