Downstream competition and profits under different input price bargaining structures

In a vertically related duopoly with input price bargaining, this paper re-examines the downstream firms’ profitability under different market competition degrees. It is shown the rather counterintuitive result that downstream firms earn highest profits with semi-collusion, whose level depends on the upstream bargaining structures, the relative parties’ bargaining power, and the parameters measuring the degree of product differentiation in the downstream market. Concerning social welfare, the key result is that policymakers can tolerate some degree of collusion with decentralized bargaining structures; centralized structures advise for a more procompetitive policy.

Review of Classical Analytical Results for the Motion of a Rydberg Electron around a Polar Molecule under Magnetic or Electric Fields of Arbitrary Strengths in Axially Symmetric Configurations

We review classical studies of the oscillatory-precessional motion of an electron in the field of an electric dipole (the latter representing the polar molecule) with or without external magnetic or electric fields. The focus is on the most recent studies. In one study (at zero external field), it was shown that, generally, the oscillations being in the meridional direction and the precession being along parallels of latitude can take place on the same time scale—contrary to the statement from the previous literature. In another study, it was shown that a magnetic field enables new ranges of the bound oscillatory-precessional motion of the Rydberg electron and that in one of the new ranges, the period of the θ-oscillations has the non-monotonic dependence on primary parameter of the system. This is a counterintuitive result. In yet another study, it was shown that under the electric field there are two equilibrium circular states of a positive energy and one equilibrium state of a negative energy. The existence of the equilibrium state of the negative energy is a counterintuitive result since at the absence of the field, the bound state was possible only for the zero energy. Thus, it is a counterintuitive result that in this case the electric field can play the role of a stabilizing factor.

A Novel Weighted Complex Evidence Combination with Its Application in Multisource Information Fusion

With the development of evidence theory, classical Dempster-Shafer evidence theory has been extended to complex plane, called complex evidence theory. However, counterintuitive result may occurs in the case when fusing conflicting complex evidences. To address this problem, a new multisource information fusion method is proposed by means of complex evidential distance function. This proposed method can reduce the impact of abnormal complex evidence on the fusion results to better support decision. A numerical example and an application of medical diagnosis verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed fusion method.

Bayesian interpretation of p values in clinical trials

Commonly accepted statistical advice dictates that large-sample size and highly powered clinical trials generate more reliable evidence than trials with smaller sample sizes. This advice is generally sound: treatment effect estimates from larger trials tend to be more accurate, as witnessed by tighter confidence intervals in addition to reduced publication biases. Consider then two clinical trials testing the same treatment which result in the same p values, the trials being identical apart from differences in sample size. Assuming statistical significance, one might at first suspect that the larger trial offers stronger evidence that the treatment in question is truly effective. Yet, often precisely the opposite will be true. Here, we illustrate and explain this somewhat counterintuitive result and suggest some ramifications regarding interpretation and analysis of clinical trial results.

Modelling disease transmission from touchscreen user interfaces

The extensive use of touchscreens for all manner of human–computer interactions has made them plausible instruments of touch-mediated disease transmission. To that end, we employ stochastic simulations to model human–fomite interaction with a distinct focus on touchscreen interfaces. The timings and frequency of interactions from within a closed population of infectious and susceptible individuals was modelled using a queuing network. A pseudo-reproductive number R was used to compare outcomes under various parameter conditions. We then apply the simulation to a specific real-world scenario; namely that of airport self-check-in and baggage drop. A counterintuitive result was that R decreased with increased touch rates required for touchscreen interaction. Additionally, as one of few parameters to be controlled, the rate of cleaning/disinfecting screens plays an essential role in mitigating R , though alternative technological strategies could prove more effective. The simulation model developed provides a foundation for future advances in more sophisticated fomite disease-transmission modelling.

The stapes of Thrinaxodon Seeley, 1894 and Galesaurus Owen, 1859: a case of study for intraspecific variability in basal cynodonts

We surveyed the stapedial anatomy of Thrinaxodon liorhinus Seeley, 1894 and Galesaurus planiceps Owen, 1859, two iconic Early Triassic basal cynodonts. The complete characterization of this bone and the analysis of its morphological variability along the ontogeny within each taxon were possible through the study of eleven elements of Thrinaxodon Seeley, 1894 and nine of Galesaurus Owen, 1859. Our results highlight notable qualitative and quantitative differences among specimens of the same species. Stapes growth model in Galesaurus shows a positive allometry on the lateromedial length and on the anteroposterior width, whereas in Thrinaxodon there is a negative allometry in the anteroposterior width but the lateromedial length is isometric. This study offers a counterintuitive result of inordinate high intraspecific morphological variation of the stapes of basal non-mammaliaform cynodonts.

Morality in the flesh: on the link between bodily self-consciousness, morality and (dis)honest behaviour

The sense of owning a body (ownership) and controlling its actions (agency) are two main pillars of bodily self-consciousness (BSC). Although studies suggest that BSC signals may influence morality, the direction of such remains unclear. To investigate this issue, we conducted an online study in which 658 participants completed BSC- and morality-related questionnaires, and undertook a task where they could cheat for monetary gain. We found that those with high sense of ownership, and low reward sensitivity, displayed both high moral identity and deception. This seemingly counterintuitive result supports the notion that people who feel highly moral allow themselves to act immorally. Moreover, we found that high agency was associated with increased moral identity in participants with higher levels of moral disengagement and sense of power. That BSC can differently affect moral identity and behaviour may inspire policies of contrast to immorality and dishonesty, based on changes of corporeal awareness.

Doubling Down: The Danger of Disclosing Secret Action

When an actor catches a state taking an objectionable secret action, it faces a dilemma. Exposing the action could force unresolved states to terminate the behavior to save face. However, it could also provoke resolved states to double down on the activity now that others are aware of the infraction. We develop a model that captures this fundamental trade-off. Three main results emerge. First, the state and its opponent may engage in a form of collusion—opponents do not expose resolved states despite their distaste for the behavior. Second, when faced with uncertainty, the opponent may mistakenly expose a resolved type and induce escalation, leading the opponent to have ex post regret. Finally, as the strength of secret action increases, states may engage in it less often. This counterintuitive result is a consequence of the opponent's greater willingness to expose, which deters less resolved types.

Institutionalism and its effect on labour forecasting in Vietnamese firms

This study examines factors that influence firm forecasting regarding their labour expansion in Vietnam. Conventional wisdom has it that foreign-owned and large private firms make more accurate forecasts since they have more resources and experience than their smaller and state-owned counterparts. However, this study empirically shows that state-owned and small firms make more accurate forecasting values. There are two possibilities that can explain this counterintuitive result: (1) the institutional incompleteness in the post-communist economy and (2) systematic underestimation of their own performance by foreign and large private firms, which results from the institutional complexity in Vietnam. These unique findings provide valuable information for both academia and practitioners.

Using Algebraic Inequalities to Reduce Uncertainty and Risk

The paper discusses applications of the domain-independent method of algebraic inequalities, for reducing uncertainty and risk. Algebraic inequalities have been used for revealing the intrinsic reliability of competing systems and ranking the systems in terms of reliability in the absence of knowledge related to the reliabilities of their components. An algebraic inequality has also been used to establish the principle of the well-ordered parallel-series systems which, in turn, has been applied to maximize the reliability of common parallel-series systems. The paper introduces linking an abstract inequality to a real process by a meaningful interpretation of the variables entering the inequality and its left- and right-hand parts. The meaningful interpretation of a simple algebraic inequality led to a counterintuitive result. If two varieties of items are present in a large batch, the probability of selecting randomly two items of different variety is smaller than the probability of selecting randomly two items of the same variety.