Assessing Groundwater Withdrawal Sustainability in the Mexican Portion of the Transboundary Santa Cruz River Aquifer

The impact of climate uncertainties is already evident in the border communities of the United States and Mexico. This semi-arid to arid border region has faced increased vulnerability to water scarcity, propelled by droughts, warming atmosphere, population growth, ecosystem sensitivity, and institutional asymmetries between the two countries. In this study, we assessed the annual water withdrawal, which is essential for maintaining long-term sustainable conditions in the Santa Cruz River Aquifer in Mexico, which is part of the U.S.–Mexico Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer. For this assessment, we developed a water balance model that accounts for the water fluxes into and out of the aquifer’s basin. A central component of this model is a hydrologic model that uses precipitation and evapotranspiration demand as input to simulate the streamflow into and out of the basin, natural recharge, soil moisture, and actual evapotranspiration. Based on the precipitation record for the period 1954–2020, we found that the amount of groundwater withdrawal that maintains sustainable conditions is 23.3 MCM/year. However, the record is clearly divided into two periods: a wet period, 1965–1993, in which the cumulative surplus in the basin reached ~380 MCM by 1993, and a dry period, 1994–2020, in which the cumulative surplus had been completely depleted. Looking at a balanced annual groundwater withdrawal for a moving average of 20-year intervals, we found the sustainable groundwater withdrawal to decline from a maximum of 36.4 MCM/year in 1993 to less than 8 MCM/year in 2020. This study underscores the urgency for adjusted water resources management that considers the large inter-annual climate variability in the region.

A Review of Climate Change Impacts on the USA-Mexico Transboundary Santa Cruz River Basin

In the parched Upper Santa Cruz River Basin (USCRB), a binational USA–Mexico basin, the water resources depend on rainfall-triggered infrequent flow events in ephemeral channels to recharge its storage-limited aquifers. In-situ data from the basin highlight a year-round warming trend since the 1980s and a concerning decline in average precipitation (streamflow) from 1955–2000 to 2001–2020 by 50% (87.6%) and 17% (63%) during the winter and summer, respectively. Binational sustainable management of the basins water resources requires a careful consideration of prospective climatic changes. In this article we review relevant studies with climate projections for the mid-21st century of four weather systems that affect the region’s precipitation. First, the North American Monsoon (NAM) weather system accounts for ~60% of the region’s annual rainfall. The total NAM precipitation is projected to decline while heavy rainfall events are expected to intensify. Second, the frequency of the pacific cold fronts, the region’s prevalent source of winter precipitation, is projected to decline. Third, the frequency and intensity of future atmospheric rivers, a weather system that brings winter rainfall to the region, are projected to increase. Fourth, the frequency and intensity of large eastern pacific tropical cyclones (TC) are expected to increase. On rare occasions, remnants of TC make their way to the USCRB to cause storms with considerable impact on the region’s water resources. In contrast to the high confidence projections for the warming trend to persist throughout the mid-21st century, the precipitation projections of these four weather systems affecting the region encompass large uncertainties and studies have often reported contradicting trends. An added source of uncertainty is that the USCRB is located at the periphery of the four rain-bearing weather systems and small mesoscale changes in these weather systems may have accentuated impacts on their edges. Despite the high uncertainty in the projections of future precipitation, the early 21st century drying trend and the projected mid-21st century decline in precipitation events serve as a pressing call for planning and actions to attain sustainable water resources management that reliably satisfies future demands.

If you build it, they will come: rapid colonization by dragonflies in a new effluent-dependent river reach

Background Aquatic ecosystems are greatly altered by urban development, including the complete loss of natural habitat due to water diversions or channel burial. However, novel freshwater habitats also are created in cities, such as effluent-dependent streams that rely on treated wastewater for flow. It is unclear how diverse these novel ecosystems are, or how quickly aquatic species are able to colonize them. In this study, we (1) quantify odonate (Insecta, Odonata) colonization of a novel effluent-dependent river reach, (2) examine how drying events affect odonates in these novel habitats, and (3) explore whether effluent-dependent streams can support diverse odonate assemblages. Methods We conducted monthly odonate surveys at three sites along the Santa Cruz River (Tucson, AZ, USA) between June 2019 and May 2020. One site was in a long-established effluent-dependent reach (flowing since the 1970s) that served as a reference site and two sites were in a newly-established reach that began flowing on June 24, 2019 (it was previously dry). We compared odonate species richness, assemblage composition, and colonization patterns across these reaches, and examined how these factors responded to flow cessation events in the new reach. Results Seven odonate species were observed at the study sites in the new reach within hours of flow initiation, and species rapidly continued to arrive thereafter. Within 3 months, species richness and assemblage composition of adult odonates were indistinguishable in the new and reference reaches. However, drying events resulted in short-term and chronic reductions in species richness at one of the sites. Across all three sites, we found over 50 odonate species, which represent nearly 40% of species known from the state of Arizona. Discussion Odonates were surprisingly diverse in the effluent-dependent Santa Cruz River and rapidly colonized a newly established reach. Richness levels remained high at study sites that did not experience drying events. These results suggest that consistent discharge of high-quality effluent into dry streambeds can be an important tool for promoting urban biodiversity. However, it remains to be seen how quickly and effectively less vagile taxa (e.g., mayflies, caddisflies) can colonize novel reaches. Effluent-dependent urban streams will always be highly managed systems, but collaboration between ecologists and urban planners could help to maximize aquatic biodiversity while still achieving goals of public safety and urban development.

MODIS Image-derived ice surface temperature assessment in the Southern Patagonian Icefield

Ice surface temperature (IST) is one of the most relevant parameters when it comes to estimating the effects of climate change on glaciers. This study aims to estimate the IST for the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) during the 2001–2016 period and, in so doing, to contribute to the assessment of the MOD11A1 product in this area. We evaluated IST performance by comparing it with that of automatic weather stations (AWSs). In addition, the glaciological significance of the results is presented through 1) IST trends, 2) annual IST anomalies, 3) IST behavior at different altitudes and orientations and 4) a comparison with Santa Cruz River flow records. The correlation coefficients obtained between the IST and AWSs ranged between 0.66 and 0.85. In addition, we report on the mean absolute differences between them, ranging between 0.6 ± 3.6°C and 9.4 ± 1.9°C. In this sense, we observed the lowest differences at the AWSs that were located in a homogeneous environment. Stated in glaciological terms: 1) only 1% of the pixels had a statically significant IST trend ( p-value ≤ 0.05): between 0.01 and 0.05°C/month; 2) we found that most of the IST anomalies ranged between –1 and 1°C throughout the period of this study; 3) the results suggest that the altimetric gradient was the most influential variable of the IST, mostly in north-oriented glaciers; and 4) the SPI IST showed an annual periodicity, which, in turn, shows a high correlation with the Santa Cruz River flow ( R = 0.86). This study is the first in estimating the SPI’s IST and contributes to enhance our knowledge of glacier dynamics and, therefore, the management of the water resource. Despite this, some MOD11 filtering is required in regions with high cloud cover frequency.