Banks Credit Risk Prediction with Optimized ANN Based on Improved Owl Search Algorithm

Credit is one of the most significant elements in banks and financial institutions. It can also be described as unpredicted events, which mainly occur in the form of either assets or liabilities. The risk occurrence is that the facility recipients have no willingness and ability to repay their debt to the bank, which is a default that is synonymous with credit risk. Credit ratings are a way to decrease and measure credit risk and, therefore, manage it appropriately. Credit rating is an approach for estimating the features and recipients of facilities’ performance based on quantitative criteria, including the company’s financial information. The anticipated future performance allows the applicants to obtain facilities with the exact specifications. In this study, due to the need and significance of calculating the credit risk concept, a novel method based on the hybrid method of artificial neural networks and an improved version of Owl search algorithm (IOSA) and forecasting of C5 risk of decision tree credit is done. This algorithm has two major parts. The decision tree runs based on an IOSA to provide the best weighting of the neural network. The weights created along with the problem data are then given as the input to the main network, and the data are classified. The algorithm has the highest level of accuracy, 96% that is much higher than other algorithms. The results also show a precision of 0.885 and a recall of 0.83 for 618 true positive samples. The proposed method has the highest accuracy and reliability toward the other comparative methods. The study is based on actual data noticed in one of the branches of the Bank Melli, Iran.

Analysis of Tawarruq contract in the Islamic profit rate swap (IPRS) implementation in Malaysia

Purpose This study aims to analyse the Shariah issues in the implementation of tawarruq contract in the Islamic profit rate swap (IPRS) instrument in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach This is a qualitative study in applying data analysis and semi-structured interview approaches. Data was collected from various documents including journals, articles and past studies conducted by scholars. To achieve the purpose of this study, the data is analysed based on thematic analysis. Findings The study found several Shariah issues regarding the implementation of tawarruq contract in the IPRS instruments, which have remained a dispute amongst the Islamic financial scholars such as its profit-making purpose, encouragement of debt, impediment of shared risk concept, disputed underlying assets, a deception towards allowing riba and dual agency. Research limitations/implications This study recommends several improvements such as the establishment of a neutral agency that does not represent any banking institution to manage the tawarruq contract commodity purchase from Bursa Suq al-Sila’ (BSAS). In addition, a neutral agency can provide aid in terms of transaction facility or at least consultation service for clients to enable them to conduct the commodity transactions independently. Practical implications Moreover, guidelines should be established on the separation of the deadline to sign the agreement of appointment of a bank as the commodity purchase agent and the agreement of appointment of the bank as the commodity sale agent on behalf of clients. All transactions related to tawarruq contract commodity must be done through BSAS. The regulators and industry experts may create a guideline for the IPRS based on the issues and recommendations that have been discussed in this study. Originality/value On the basis of the analysis of the criticisms and issues in the implementation of tawarruq contract in the IPRS instrument, the current study found that an intermediating institution is allowed to gain profits from transactions conducted so long as they are based on Shariah principles of contract in Islam. As there is no parameter specifically for IPRS, thus the suggested parameter can be used by policymakers such as the Central Bank of Malaysia to ensure the industry complies with Shariah principles.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd: A Study of Financial Movement during Pandemic Times

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd is the Indian MNC based in Mumbai with largest market capitalization amongst the Indian Pharma companies. The study focuses on the study of the various parameters of financial performance and risk measurement of Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd during the challenging time of Covid era. The financial variability of return using the Value at Risk concept based on the historical movement of the daily return has been analyzed to understand the trend of the risk related to the variability in return. Also, the trend analysis has been used to analyze the movement of various fundamental financial parameters like Net Income, Operating Income Margin, Net Income Margin

Fundamentals for the Challenge of Controlling Risk Through Standardization

This chapter is intended to deal with the topic of standardization as a solution for risk control and decision making, mainly in high technologized context. For that purpose, this document starts introducing the reason of controlling risk as well as the uncertainty background that lays in different sectors. After that, the risk management evolution is outlined, defining briefly the risk concept, mentioning some current management models and enumerating the more relevant norms, standards, and guidelines for risk management. From this point, an overview on the standard ISO 31000 about risk management is provided in order to finally summarize some possible future research lines and some conclusions about this groundwork on risk and uncertainty.

Risk management in construction sphere

In modern terms of housekeeping complicated by coronavirus infection and crisis phenomena in world and Russian economics, there is a high probability of different risks occurrence, connected with activity of modern enterprises in investment and construction sphere. Success, profit and efficiency of enterprise activity in current situation in many ways depends on ability to manage appearing risks to minimize them. It confirms relevance of the research which results are performed in this article. Purpose of the research is to reveal priority directions of management actions aimed to production, financial, logistics, investment and other processes functioning in regional investment and construction sphere, and also to develop mechanism of risk management, which allows to provide reducing of risk appearance probability and minimize their effects. Authors have assessed state Irkutsk region’s investment and construction complex, determined the most likely risks of construction activity. It has been determined the essence of “risk” concept, and systematization of risks in investment and construction processes has been implemented. Mechanism of construction enterprise’s risk management has been developed. The methodological base for research are general scientific methods of understanding the processes of construction products: observation, generalization, comparison, grouping, as well as methods of logical, economical and system analysis.

Concepto de riesco: (dis)continuidades entre corrientes epidemiológicas

In the present study we analyze if the risk concept of the hegemonic epidemiologychanges its nature in purportedly alternative currents as ecoepidemiology and socialepidemiology focused in multilevel analysis.We analyze the way this concept is distinguishedin every current and its relationship with other epidemiologic key notions as cause. We findthat the risk concept and the notion of cause remain relatively unchanged among the differentcurrents even when there is some theoretical discussion about the complexity of multilevelsystems and other explanations for the events. Finally we discuss some consequences aboutthe appropriation of the risk concept in multiple interventions in the health field. We indicatethat the fragmented nature of the risk concept is problematic because it can make thesocial aspects of the disease considered only in a functional perspective. Alternatively to thatwe develop the vulnerability concept as a knowledge framed in a hermeneutical perspective.The vulnerability concept acts as a mediator knowledge between epidemiology and theinterventions in the health field. In the same way we point out some concerns from the anthropologicalfield about the simplification of social senses and omission of meanings aboutthe health of the communities.