scholarly journals SAGE advice and political decision-making: ‘Following the science’ in times of epistemic uncertainty

2021 ◽  
pp. 030631272110625
Author(s):  
Robert Evans
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Advisory Group ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Working Practices ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Political Decision Making

This article presents a preliminary analysis of the advice provided by the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) held between 22 January and 23 March 2020 in response to the emerging coronavirus pandemic. Drawing on the published minutes of the group’s meetings, the article examines what was known and not known, the assumptions and working practices that shaped their work, and how this knowledge was reflected in the decisions made by the government. In doing so, the article critically examines what it means for policy making to be ‘led by the science’ when the best available science is provisional and uncertain. Using ideas of ‘externality’ and ‘evidential significance’, the article argues that the apparent desire for high levels of certainty by both scientists and political decision-makers made early action impossible as the data needed were not, and could not be, available in time. This leads to an argument for changes to the institutions that provide scientific advice based on sociologically informed expectations of science in which expert judgement plays a more significant role.

Whither the Daang Matuwid?: Overconfidence in Benigno S. Aquino III’s Perception of Survival (2010–2016)

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-148
Author(s):  
Eryan Ramadhani
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Psychology ◽  
Cognitive Complexity ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Political Institution ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
Political Decision Making

Abstract The study of political decision-making cannot exclude the actors involved in the process. Neither can it disregard the interplay between decision-makers and political institution where they operate. This article aims to explain how perception of survival affects decision-making by focusing on leaders, specifically by analysing Benigno S. Aquino III’s leadership (2010–2016). Built on political psychology, I will show that motivation to maintain power may bias leaders’ reasoning leading to suboptimal decision. Accountability can help leaders mitigate bias, or de-bias, by stimulating their use of cognitive complexity. But the same effort may backfire and make leaders resort to heuristics instead. Where leaders end up in the cognitive spectrum depends on the types of audiences to whom they feel accountable: core (the ruling elites and loyal voters) and external (the opposition and its supporters) audiences. Preoccupation with core audiences can make leaders downplay the opposition challenge. Furthermore, leaders’ perceived understanding of their support base may be erroneous. The result is overconfidence in their perception of survival. I argue that President Aquino’s misperception of survival was rooted in his belief that (1) Filipinos would like to have his legacy continued and that (2) his popularity would help his successor Manuel Araneta Roxas II win the 2016 presidential race. This overconfidence turned out to be detrimental. Roxas’s electoral loss to Rodrigo Duterte put an end to the Daang Matuwid, President Aquino’s good governance platform.

scholarly journals The Russian Political Elite in the Context of Modern Political Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 85-91
Author(s):  
M.Yu. Martynova ◽  
◽  
D.M. Feoktistova ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Development ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Public Discussion ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

the author analyzes the problems of the activity and development of the political elite. The current political situation in Russia puts forward new requirements for the functioning of the management system of state institutions and determines the need for professionally trained, highly moral personnel of the modern political elite. The paper considers the possibility of introducing modern and progressive mechanisms of interaction between the government and society – crowdsourcing, which involves the wide involvement of citizens with an active civic position and public associations in the process of public discussion and political decision-making.

Sunk Costs and Political Decision Making

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sunk Costs ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Mixed Support ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Political Decision Making ◽  
Forward Looking

The “sunk costs fallacy” is a popular import into political science from organizational psychology and behavioral economics. The fallacy is classically defined as a situation in which decision-makers escalate commitment to an apparently failing project in order to “recoup” the costs they have already sunk into it. The phenomenon is often framed as a good example of how real decision-making departs from the assumption of forward-looking rationality which underpins traditional approaches to understanding politics. Researchers have proposed a number of different psychological drivers for the fallacy, such as cognitive dissonance reduction, and there is experimental and observational evidence that it accurately characterizes decision-making in certain contexts. However, there is significant skepticism about the fallacy in many social sciences, with critics arguing that there are better forward-looking rational explanations for decisions apparently driven by a desire to recoup sunk costs – among them reputational concerns, option values and agency problems. Critics have also noted that in practical situations sunk costs are informative both about decision makers’ intrinsic valuation for the issue and the prospects for success, making it hard to discern a separate role for sunk costs empirically. To address these concerns, empirical researchers have employed a number of strategies, especially leveraging natural experiments in certain non-political decision making contexts such as sports or business, in order to isolate the effects of sunk costs per se from other considerations. In doing so, they have found mixed support for the fallacy. Research has also shown that the prevalence of the sunk costs fallacy may be moderated by a number of factors, including the locus of decision-making, framing, and national context. These provide the basis for suggestions for future research.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

scholarly journals Between technochauvinism and human-centrism: Can algorithms improve decision-making in democratic politics?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal D. König ◽  
Georg Wenzelburger
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Democratic Politics ◽  
Cognitive Tasks ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Political Decision Making ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractThe promise of algorithmic decision-making (ADM) lies in its capacity to support or replace human decision-making based on a superior ability to solve specific cognitive tasks. Applications have found their way into various domains of decision-making—and even find appeal in the realm of politics. Against the backdrop of widespread dissatisfaction with politicians in established democracies, there are even calls for replacing politicians with machines. Our discipline has hitherto remained surprisingly silent on these issues. The present article argues that it is important to have a clear grasp of when and how ADM is compatible with political decision-making. While algorithms may help decision-makers in the evidence-based selection of policy instruments to achieve pre-defined goals, bringing ADM to the heart of politics, where the guiding goals are set, is dangerous. Democratic politics, we argue, involves a kind of learning that is incompatible with the learning and optimization performed by algorithmic systems.

scholarly journals Lessons from COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Analysis of Bangladesh’s Responses

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-177
Author(s):  
Rifat Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crisis Responses ◽  
Second Wave

The first wave of the COVID- 19 disease has caused a daunting and unprecedented challenge for governments of the world. Decision-makers worldwide, including that of Bangladesh, had to initiate responses that were beyond the conventional measures. This paper offers the decision-makers in Bangladesh on the possible learning in the field of crisis management during this pandemic. The paper aims in focusing on the first phase of responses to COVID-19 (March-May) from the initial lockdown to the reopening of offices by the government of Bangladesh. Methodologically, the paper is a content analysis involving netnography approach of data collection from websites. The paper presents a finding of possible lessons of crisis responses in Bangladesh. The paper aims to create an agenda for learning lessons from the situation of the largest crisis to hit the world in centuries. The paper induces substantial value for policy-makers to be prepared for the second wave of the COVID- 19 crisis, to meet the challenges of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Nationalism, Caste-blindness and the Continuing Problems of War-Displaced Panchamars in Post-war Jaffna Society

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-70
Author(s):  
Kalinga Tudor Silva
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
State Policies ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ethnic Biases ◽  
Post War ◽  
Caste Groups ◽  
Political Decision Making

This article tries to unpack why subaltern caste groups in Jaffna society have failed to end their displacement and move out of the IDP camps many years after the end of war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Using both quantitative and qualitative data from the affected communities the paper argues that the interplay among ethnicity, caste and social class and ethnic-biases and caste-blindness of state policies and Sinhala and Tamil politics largely informed by rival nationalist perspectives are among the underlying causes of the prolonged IDP problem in the Jaffna Peninsula. In search of  an appropriate solution to the intractable IDP problem in post-war Sri Lanka, the paper calls for increased participation of subaltern caste groups in political decision making and policy dialogues, release of land in high security zones for  affected IDPs wherever possible and provision of adequate incentives for remaining IDPs to move to alternative locations arranged by the state in consultation with the IDPs and members of neighbouring communities where the IDPs cannot possibly go back to their original sites.

scholarly journals Civic Initiative as an Instrument of Dialogue between Government and Civil Society in Russia

2015 ◽  
pp. 128-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
N N Yagodka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Basic Sites ◽  
Civic Activism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

The article is devoted to the analysis of the development of civic initiatives in Russia, as well as their role in establishing dialogue between the government and the civil society. By the means of activity approach, the author analyzes trends in the development of civic initiatives, describes the basic sites and platforms for transmission initiatives to the government and municipal authorities, as well as examines the reasons hampering the development of civic activism in modern Russia. The author concludes that there is potential to enhance the role of civic initiatives in development and political decision-making.

scholarly journals Internal Security Institutions Meeting Internet Governance. A comparative view on the UK and Germany

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-206
Author(s):  
Jasmin Röllgen ◽  
Mathias Bug
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Data Retention ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
National Implementation ◽  
Political Differences ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Political Decision Making

The internet stays a high potential infrastructure of open interaction, hence, governmental desires in monitoring the internet are growing. A demonstrative example might be the attempts to make any technology based communication ‘traceable’ with the help of a European scheme of data retention (EU direction 2006/24/EC) and its national ratifications. Regarding this, two theses come up: First, governments try to achieve their logic of ‘real life’ internal security also within the internet regime. Second, the internet changed the society in so far as it opened space for new relevant communities and actors – lobbying more and more on institutionalised paths. This will be shown by analysing the processes in the UK and Germany. A focus will lie on each national implementation of the EU’s data retention directive. Societal and especially political differences will find some notion as well, as they build the framework of any political decision making process.

Students in Cities: A Preliminary Analysis of Their Patterns and Effects

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (8) ◽  
pp. 1805-1825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moira Munro ◽  
Ivan Turok ◽  
Mark Livingston
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Residential Patterns ◽  
Entry Level ◽  
Working Practices ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Unexplained Variation ◽  
Displacement Effects ◽  
Local Work

This paper adds to a growing literature on the impacts of the growth in student numbers in the UK, by focusing explicitly on their spatial residential patterns and impacts on labour markets in cities. It shows that students are typically highly residentially concentrated and statistically the population of students shows a high degree of segregation from nonstudents. Turnover within student neighbourhoods is argued to be sufficiently high to cause significant neighbourhood and community disruption in many cities. Students are also shown to have very distinct labour-market characteristics, being highly concentrated within particular sectors and types of occupation. Here too they have the potential for wider impacts, including displacement effects in relation to other local young people from entry-level jobs and increasing the flexibilisation of working practices. Students are also distinctive in apparently being able to find work if they wish to, although the evidence suggests that this is probably marginally easier in more buoyant labour markets. There is much unexplained variation between cities, though, which suggests the need for more detailed local work.

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