Cell2Fire: A Cell-Based Forest Fire Growth Model to Support Strategic Landscape Management Planning

Cell2Fire is a new cell-based wildland fire growth simulator designed to integrate data-driven landscape management planning models. The fire environment is modeled by partitioning the landscape into cells characterized by fuel, weather, moisture content, and topographic attributes. The model can use existing fire spread models such as the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System to model fire growth. Cell2Fire is structured to facilitate its use for predicting the growth of individual fires or by embedding it in landscape management simulation models. Decision-making models such as fuel treatment/harvesting plans can be easily integrated and evaluated. It incorporates a series of out-of-the-box planning heuristics that provide benchmarks for comparison. We illustrate their use by applying and evaluating a series of harvesting plans for forest landscapes in Canada. We validated Cell2Fire by using it to predict the growth of both real and hypothetical fires, comparing our predictions with the fire scars produced by a validated fire growth simulator (Prometheus). Cell2Fire is implemented as an open-source project that exploits parallelism to efficiently support the modeling of fire growth across large spatial and temporal scales. Our experiments indicate that Cell2Fire is able to efficiently simulate wildfires (up to 30x faster) under different conditions with similar accuracy as state-of-the-art simulators (above 90% of accuracy). We demonstrate its effectiveness as part of a harvest planning optimization framework, identifying relevant metrics to capture and actions to mitigate the impact of wildfire uncertainty.

The Development of Cellular Automata-based Entrepreneurial Growth Simulator

Entrepreneurship plays an essential role in the economic growth of a country. These roles include creating jobs, reducing unemployment, increasing people's income, combining production factors (nature, labor, capital, and expertise), and increasing national productivity. For the economy to thrive and healthy, it requires at least 4% of the population who work as entrepreneurs. Due to this vital role, entrepreneurial growth must be maintained. One of the efforts to do this is by monitoring growth directly and continuously. Besides that, another way is to do a simulation. By knowing the condition of entrepreneurship at one time and all the factors that affect entrepreneurial growth, simulations can be carried out to determine or predict future conditions. Based on this simulation, essential steps can be taken, or policies can be made to maintain profitable entrepreneurial growth. This paper presents a mathematical model that can simulate and visualize entrepreneurship's growth in six provinces of Sumatra Island, Indonesia. This mathematical model uses cellular automata as its basis and is called Entrepreneurial Cellular Automata (ECA). One of the advantages of Cellular Automata is that it is easy to visualize. The entrepreneurial model used as a reference is a model from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring (GEM). This mathematical model has been implemented in a simulator program. This paper describes the simulator development and the use of simulator to simulate and visualize the entrepreneurial growth of the six provinces.

Financial viability of a fully simulated transformation from even-aged to uneven-aged stand structure in forests of different ages

For the first time, an economic analysis of a fully simulated forest transformation process from even-aged to uneven-aged stand structure using natural regeneration was performed using an individual tree growth simulator. A comparison to a ‘business as usual’ management approach (i.e. age-class scenario) was also made. Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.)-dominated forests of different ages were selected for the simulation: forest at thinning stage (52 years; hereafter, ‘younger stand’) and a mature stand (95 years) to explore different starting points for the transformation. The harvested and remaining stand volume showed only little fluctuation over the course of the simulation period in the case of the transformation (uneven-aged) scenario. The age-class scenario, on the other hand, showed peaks and drops in the timber volume. The land expectation values at the end of transformation were higher (i = 1 or 2 per cent) or equal (i = 3 per cent) to those of the age-class scenario for the younger stand. The transformation of younger forests appears to be economically interesting (under interest rates above 2 per cent) as the early revenues of more intensive thinnings achieve an equilibrium growing stock well below the potential maximum growing stock of an even-aged stand. This suggests transformation management to be economically efficient under the given silvicultural and economic conditions. The transformation of mature stands was found to be less economically viable due to the lower holding values for the transformation (uneven-aged) scenario compared with the age-class scenario. However, the holding values of the younger stand were higher for all interest rates compared with the age-class scenario. This study concludes that transformation (uneven-aged) scenario yielded more economically viable silvicultural approach (in the case of younger forests) and a steadier trend in harvested and remaining timber volume showing no major fluctuations. Transformation approach also forms a better foundation where other ecosystem services can be built.

Model Simulasi dan Visualisasi Prediksi Potensi Hasil dan Produksi Kedelai di Jawa Timur

<p>The prediction of national soybean yield and production could be improved its accuracy by integrating a simulation model and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The objective of this research was to integrate a simulation model with a GIS, to predict the potential yield and production of soybean in the soybean production centers of East Java. This study was conducted from December 2013 till May 2014. The approach used in this study was a systems approach using a simulation model as solution to the problem. The model is SUCROS.SIM (Simple Universal Crops Growth Simulator), which was written using Powersim software and Spreadsheet in order to be fully integrated with GIS. The initial phase of the integration process between SUCROS.SIM and GIS are as follows (a) model validation, using input data of soybean plant assimilate partitioning, (b) climatic data (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperatures) collected from the climatological station (BMKG) Karangploso Malang and (c) observation data of soybean yields of two varieties (Wilis and Argomulyo) at Muneng Experiment Station. It was found that the coefficients of determination of simulation model of soybean yield potential (R2) range from 0.945-0.992 and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values range from 0.11 to 0.25 t/ha. The average of soybean yield potential and production in 2012 at soybean production centers of East Java were 1.94 t/ha and 293,459 ton, respectively. The conclusion is SUCROS.SIM valid to be integrated with GIS.</p>

Möglichkeiten zur Holzmobilisierung im Tessiner Kastaniengürtel

Timber mobilization possibilities for the chestnut belt of Ticino Many of the traditionally managed chestnut groves and coppice forests in the canton of Ticino have been abandoned in the second half of the 20th century. The ensuing natural development resulted in homogenized stand structures across the landscape, increasing growing stocks and diminishing provision of ecosystem services (e.g. timber, protection from gravitational hazards, nature conservation and recreation services). We used a forest growth simulator (“Massimo”) to simulate a range of management scenarios and possible consequences. Under the current low intensity management growing stocks and tree mortality continue to increase, which – at a large scale – could further reduce the protection and other services and increase the risk of forest fires. This process could be countered with more intense management practices, yet facing relatively high timber harvesting costs. An optimized forest management in the chestnut belt would require the definition of the dominating forest functions, the designation of priority areas and monetary compensation schemes for the provision of the respective forest ecosystem services.

An Inventory of Tree and Stand Growth Empirical Modelling Approaches with Potential Application in Coppice Forestry (a Review)

We examined currently available empirical growth models which could be potentially applicable to coppice growth and production modelling. We compiled a summary of empirical models applied in coppices, high forests and fast-growing tree plantations, including coppice plantations. The collected growth models were analysed in order to find out whether they encompassed any of 13 key dendrometric and structural variables that we found as characteristic for coppices. There is no currently available complex growth model for coppices in Europe. Furthermore, many aspects of coppice growth process have been totally ignored or omitted in the most common modelling approaches so far. Within-stool competition, mortality and stool morphological variability are the most important parameters. However, some individual empirical submodels or their parts are potentially applicable for coppice growth and production modelling (e. g. diameter increment model or model of resprouting probability). As the issue of coppice management gains attention, the need for a decision support tool (e.g. coppice growth simulator) becomes more actual.