scholarly journals Cell2Fire: A Cell-Based Forest Fire Growth Model to Support Strategic Landscape Management Planning

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristobal Pais ◽  
Jaime Carrasco ◽  
David L. Martell ◽  
Andres Weintraub ◽  
David L. Woodruff
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Landscape Management ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Fire Growth ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Growth Simulator ◽  
The Impact

Cell2Fire is a new cell-based wildland fire growth simulator designed to integrate data-driven landscape management planning models. The fire environment is modeled by partitioning the landscape into cells characterized by fuel, weather, moisture content, and topographic attributes. The model can use existing fire spread models such as the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System to model fire growth. Cell2Fire is structured to facilitate its use for predicting the growth of individual fires or by embedding it in landscape management simulation models. Decision-making models such as fuel treatment/harvesting plans can be easily integrated and evaluated. It incorporates a series of out-of-the-box planning heuristics that provide benchmarks for comparison. We illustrate their use by applying and evaluating a series of harvesting plans for forest landscapes in Canada. We validated Cell2Fire by using it to predict the growth of both real and hypothetical fires, comparing our predictions with the fire scars produced by a validated fire growth simulator (Prometheus). Cell2Fire is implemented as an open-source project that exploits parallelism to efficiently support the modeling of fire growth across large spatial and temporal scales. Our experiments indicate that Cell2Fire is able to efficiently simulate wildfires (up to 30x faster) under different conditions with similar accuracy as state-of-the-art simulators (above 90% of accuracy). We demonstrate its effectiveness as part of a harvest planning optimization framework, identifying relevant metrics to capture and actions to mitigate the impact of wildfire uncertainty.

scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of the impact of forest fires on buildings and structures

2018 ◽  
Vol 209 ◽  
pp. 00021
Author(s):  
Valeriy Perminov ◽  
Victoria Marzaeva
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Important Concern ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fundamental Physical

The protection of buildings and structures in a community from destruction by forest fires is a very important concern. This paper addresses the development of a mathematical model for fires in the wildland-urban intermix. The forest fire is a very complicated phenomenon. At present, fire services can forecast the danger rating of, or the specific weather elements relating to, forest fire. There is need to understand and predict forest fire initiation, behavior and impact of fire on the buildings and constructions. This paper’s purposes are the improvement of knowledge on the fundamental physical mechanisms that control forest fire behavior. The mathematical modeling of forest fires actions on buildings and structures has been carried out to study the effects of fire intensity and wind speed on possibility of ignition of buildings.

Calculating and interpreting forest fire intensities

1982 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 349-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin E. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
International System ◽  
Unit Length ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Linear Rate ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Quantitative Basis ◽  
The Impact

Frontal fire intensity is a valid measure of forest fire behavior that is solely a physical attribute of the fire itself. It is defined as the energy output rate per unit length of fire front and is directly related to flame size. Numerically, it is equal to the product of net heat of combustion, quantity of fuel consumed in the active combustion zone, and a spreading fire's linear rate of advance. The recommended International System (SI) units are kilowatts per metre. This concept of fire intensity provides a quantitative basis for fire description useful in evaluating the impact of fire on forest ecosystems.

scholarly journals Integrating Fire Behavior Models and Geospatial Analysis for Wildland Fire Risk Assessment and Fuel Management Planning

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan A. Ager ◽  
Nicole M. Vaillant ◽  
Mark A. Finney
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Fuel Management ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment ◽  
Behavior Models ◽  
Wildland Fire Risk

Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals and public expectations. A number of fire behavior metrics, including fire spread, intensity, likelihood, and ecological risk must be analyzed for multiple treatment alternatives. The effect of treatments on wildfire impacts must be considered at multiple scales. The process is complicated by the lack of data integration among fire behavior models, and weak linkages to geographic information systems, corporate data, and desktop office software. This paper describes our efforts to build a streamlined fuel management planning and risk assessment framework, and an integrated system of tools for designing and testing fuel treatment programs on fire-prone wildlands.

Analysing initial attack on wildland fires using stochastic simulation

2006 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy S. Fried ◽  
J. Keith Gilless ◽  
James Spero
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Fire Protection ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Stochastic Simulation Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Stochastic simulation models of initial attack on wildland fire can be designed to reflect the complexity of the environmental, administrative, and institutional context in which wildland fire protection agencies operate, but such complexity may come at the cost of a considerable investment in data acquisition and management. This cost may be well justified when it allows for analysis of a wider spectrum of operational problems in wildland fire protection planning. The California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), is a sophisticated stochastic simulation model designed to facilitate quantitative analysis of the potential effects of changes in many key components of most wildland fire systems, e.g. availability and stationing of resources, dispatch rules, criteria for setting fire dispatch level, staff schedules, and deployment and line-building tactics. The CFES2 model can also be used to support strategic planning with respect to vegetation management programs, development at the wildland–urban interface, reallocation of responsibilities among fire protection agencies, and climatic change. The analytical capacity of stochastic simulations models to address such key issues is demonstrated using the CFES2 model in four case studies addressing the impact on initial attack effectiveness of: (1) multiple fire starts; (2) diversion of firefighting resources to structure protection; (3) alternate stationing of firefighting resources; and (4) multi-agency cooperation.

scholarly journals Analysing spatial interdependence among the 2011 Thailand flood-affected small and medium enterprises for reduction of disaster recovery time period

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shubham Pathak ◽  
Jorge Chica Olmo
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Recovery ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Spatial Econometric ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
Accurate Perception ◽  
The Government ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
Disaster Management Planning ◽  
The Impact

AbstractNatural disasters have been a significant hurdle in the economic growth of middle-income developing countries. Thailand has also been suffering from recurring flood disasters and was most which are severely affected during the 2011 floods. This paper aims to identify the various factors that impact the speed of disaster recovery among the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) severely affected by the floods in Pathumthani province in central Thailand, and how it is related to its speed decision of neighbours SMEs. The methodology adopts a spatial econometric model, to analysis and understand each of the chosen factors’ impact. The findings include the impact of disaster resilience, mitigation and planning at the SME level as well as the government level. The absence of accurate perception of actual risk, flood insurance and disaster management planning before the 2011 floods had contributed to the severity of the impacts during the 2011 floods.

scholarly journals Micro-mechanical investigation of railway ballast behavior under cyclic loading in a box test using DEM: effects of elastic layers and ballast types

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishant Kumar ◽  
Bettina Suhr ◽  
Stefan Marschnig ◽  
Peter Dietmaier ◽  
Christof Marte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cyclic Loading ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Particle Movement ◽  
Railway Ballast ◽  
Elastic Layers ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Ballasted tracks are the commonly used railway track systems with constant demands for reducing maintenance cost and improved performance. Elastic layers are increasingly used for improving ballasted tracks. In order to better understand the effects of elastic layers, physical understanding at the ballast particle level is crucial. Here, discrete element method (DEM) is used to investigate the effects of elastic layers – under sleeper pad ($$\text {USP}$$USP) at the sleeper/ballast interface and under ballast mat ($$\text {UBM}$$UBM) at the ballast/bottom interface – on micro-mechanical behavior of railway ballast. In the DEM model, the Conical Damage Model (CDM) is used for contact modelling. This model was calibrated in Suhr et al. (Granul Matter 20(4):70, 2018) for the simulation of two different types of ballast. The CDM model accounts for particle edge breakage, which is an important phenomenon especially at the early stage of a tamping cycle, and thus essential, when investigating the impact of elastic layers in the ballast bed. DEM results confirm that during cyclic loading, $$\text {USP}$$USP reduces the edge breakage at the sleeper/ballast interface. On the other hand, $$\text {UBM}$$UBM shows higher particle movement throughout the ballast bed. Both the edge breakage and particle movement in the ballast bed are found to influence the sleeper settlement. Micro-mechanical investigations show that the force chain in deeper regions of the ballast bed is less affected by $$\text {USP}$$USP for the two types of ballast. Conversely, dense lateral forces near to the box bottom were seen with $$\text {UBM}$$UBM. The findings are in good (qualitative) agreement with the experimental observations. Thus, DEM simulations can aid to better understand the micro-macro phenomena for railway ballast. This can help to improve the track components and track design based on simulation models taking into account the physical behavior of ballast. Graphical Abstract

scholarly journals Assessing asset monitoring levels for maintenance operations

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 632-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah A Alabdulkarim ◽  
Peter Ball ◽  
Ashutosh Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Event Simulation ◽  
Product Service ◽  
Asset Monitoring ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – Asset management has recently gained significance due to emerging business models such as Product Service Systems where the sale of asset use, rather than the sale of the asset itself, is applied. This leaves the responsibility of the maintenance tasks to fall on the shoulders of the manufacturer/supplier to provide high asset availability. The use of asset monitoring assists in providing high availability but the level of monitoring and maintenance needs to be assessed for cost effectiveness. There is a lack of available tools and understanding of their value in assessing monitoring levels. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This research aims to develop a dynamic modelling approach using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) to assess such maintenance systems in order to provide a better understanding of the behaviour of complex maintenance operations. Interviews were conducted and literature was analysed to gather modelling requirements. Generic models were created, followed by simulation models, to examine how maintenance operation systems behave regarding different levels of asset monitoring. Findings – This research indicates that DES discerns varying levels of complexity of maintenance operations but that more sophisticated asset monitoring levels will not necessarily result in a higher asset performance. The paper shows that it is possible to assess the impact of monitoring levels as well as make other changes to system operation that may be more or less effective. Practical implications – The proposed tool supports the maintenance operations decision makers to select the appropriate asset monitoring level that suits their operational needs. Originality/value – A novel DES approach was developed to assess asset monitoring levels for maintenance operations. In applying this quantitative approach, it was demonstrated that higher asset monitoring levels do not necessarily result in higher asset availability. The work provides a means of evaluating the constraints in the system that an asset is part of rather than focusing on the asset in isolation.

A stochastic mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions with uncertain weather

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 234-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin J. Belval ◽  
Yu Wei ◽  
Michael Bevers
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Integer Program ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Mixed Integer Program ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Placement Decisions ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Nonanticipativity Constraints

Wildfire behavior is a complex and stochastic phenomenon that can present unique tactical management challenges. This paper investigates a multistage stochastic mixed integer program with full recourse to model spatially explicit fire behavior and to select suppression locations for a wildland fire. Simplified suppression decisions take the form of “suppression nodes”, which are placed on a raster landscape for multiple decision stages. Weather scenarios are used to represent a distribution of probable changes in fire behavior in response to random weather changes, modeled using probabilistic weather trees. Multistage suppression decisions and fire behavior respond to these weather events and to each other. Nonanticipativity constraints ensure that suppression decisions account for uncertainty in weather forecasts. Test cases for this model provide examples of fire behavior interacting with suppression to achieve a minimum expected area impacted by fire and suppression.

Impact of Ventilation on Fire Behavior in Legacy and Contemporary Residential Construction

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Kerber ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Homeland Security ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fire Service ◽  
United States Department ◽  
Department Of Homeland Security ◽  
Front Door ◽  
Fire Environment ◽  
Open Floor ◽  
The Impact

Under the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Assistance to Firefighter Grant Program, Underwriters Laboratories examined fire service ventilation practices as well as the impact of changes in modern house geometries. There has been a steady change in the residential fire environment over the past several decades. These changes include larger homes, more open floor plans and volumes and increased synthetic fuel loads. This series of experiments examine this change in fire behavior and the impact on firefighter ventilation tactics. This fire research project developed the empirical data that is needed to quantify the fire behavior associated with these scenarios and result in immediately developing the necessary firefighting ventilation practices to reduce firefighter death and injury. Two houses were constructed in the large fire facility of Underwriters Laboratories in Northbrook, IL. The first of two houses constructed was a one-story, 1200 ft, 3 bedroom, 
bathroom house with 8 total rooms. The second house was a two-story 3200 ft, 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom house with 12 total rooms. The second house featured a modern open floor plan, two- story great room and open foyer. Fifteen experiments were conducted varying the ventilation locations and the number of ventilation openings. Ventilation scenarios included ventilating the front door only, opening the front door and a window near and remote from the seat of the fire, opening a window only and ventilating a higher opening in the two-story house. One scenario in each house was conducted in triplicate to examine repeatability. The results of these experiments provide knowledge for the fire service for them to examine their thought processes, standard operating procedures and training content. Several tactical considerations were developed utilizing the data from the experiments to provide specific examples of changes that can be adopted based on a departments current strategies and tactics.

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of a Cooperative Dynamic Bus Lane System With Connected Vehicles

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110357
Author(s):  
Meng Xie ◽  
Michael Winsor ◽  
Tao Ma ◽  
Andreas Rau ◽  
Fritz Busch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Penetration Rate ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Driving Behavior ◽  
Connected Vehicles ◽  
Microscopic Simulation ◽  
Communication Range ◽  
Bus Lane ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to evaluate the sensitivity of the proposed cooperative dynamic bus lane system with microscopic traffic simulation models. The system creates a flexible bus priority lane that is only activated on demand at an appropriate time with advanced information and communication technologies, which can maximize the use of road space. A decentralized multi-lane cooperative algorithm is developed and implemented in a microscopic simulation environment to coordinate lane changing, gap acceptance, and car-following driving behavior for the connected vehicles (CVs) on the bus lane and the adjacent lanes. The key parameters for the sensitivity study include the penetration rate and communication range of CVs, considering the transition period and gradual uptake of CVs. Multiple scenarios are developed and compared to analyze the impact of key parameters on the system’s performance, such as total saved travel time of all passengers and travel time variation among buses and private vehicles. The microscopic simulation models showed that the cooperative dynamic bus lane system is significantly sensitive to the variations of the penetration rate and the communication range in a congested traffic state. With a CV system and a communication range of 150 m, buses obtain maximum benefits with minimal impacts on private vehicles in the study simulation. The safety concerns induced by cooperative driving behavior are also discussed in this paper.

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