Conservative Revival and the Rise of ‘Others’

This chapter examines the closely fought elections of 2010 and 2015, the first of which produced the first British coalition government since 1945 in a period which saw the continued fragmentation of the party system and the rise of United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the Scottish National Party (SNP).Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as Prime Minister in 2007, and initially impressions were favourable. However, almost as soon as Brown had decided against a ‘snap’ election to exploit his popularity, events turned against him and his party. The worldwide global financial crisis, which began in 2007, hit Britain particularly hard, and like Major’s Conservatives in the previous decade New Labour lost its reputation for economic competence. The Conservatives, under David Cameron who proclaimed himself ‘the heir to Blair’, won the largest number of seats in the 2010 election, which was particularly noteworthy for the introduction of televised leader debates. However, the 2010 contest resulted in a ‘hung parliament’ and a coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The key events of the ensuing five years are examined, including the introduction of a Fixed-Term Parliaments Act which purportedly deprived Prime Ministers of the right to call elections at times of their own choosing. There were also referendums of Electoral Reform (2011) and Scottish independence (2014), in which the status quo was upheld without seeming to put an end to either question. In particular, the SNP continued to prosper despite the 2014 result, and in the 2015 general election it won almost all of the Scottish parliamentary seats. In England, UKIP had become a very serious threat both to Labour and the Conservatives, who had imposed unpopular cuts in public expenditure (‘austerity’) in response to the financial crisis. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats had lost much of their electoral appeal during their ill-fated alliance with Cameron’s Conservatives. The overall result of the 2015 election was an overall victory for the Conservatives, but by a margin which left Cameron vulnerable to Eurosceptics within his party.

Introduction

This chapter provides an overview of British general elections from 1964 to 2019, outlining trends in party support and turnout as well as changes in the numbers of candidates. Developments in campaigning methods and the greatly increased role of opinion polls in elections are discussed. The main academic theories seeking to explain voting behaviour in Britain—from the Butler–Stokes model to ‘performance politics’—are introduced and explained. These underpin and help to account for the change from an electorate that was largely stable and aligned with one of the major parties in the 1960s to one that was volatile and ‘dealigned’ by the twenty-first century.

Conservative Hegemony?

This chapter concerns the British general elections of 1983, 1987, and 1992. All three were won by the Conservatives. In 1983, the party was returned with a majority of 144 seats, despite having been deeply unpopular for much of its term of office thanks to economic recession and an unprecedented post-war level of unemployment. The scale of the victory was partly due to the 1982 Falklands conflict, in which the prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, had seemingly fulfilled her promise to restore British pride and prestige. However, the Conservatives also benefited from a divided opposition, with Labour and the newly formed Liberal/SDP Alliance winning a plurality of votes between them. In 1987 the situation was similar, although by this time the economic outlook had improved and the Conservatives benefited from a ‘feel-good factor’. By 1990 Mrs Thatcher had once again become deeply unpopular, and was replaced by the less controversial (but uncharismatic) John Major. Under his leadership the Conservatives secured a record tally of votes in the 1992 election, but their overall parliamentary majority was greatly reduced thanks to the operation of the electoral system. In each case, relevant developments in the preceding inter-election period are described (including trends in party popularity) and an account of the campaign provided. In addition, the election results themselves—patterns of party support and of turnout—are extensively analysed. The chapter also discusses the academic controversy over the extent of class voting in Britain, which emerged at the time, as well as the growing North–South regional divide in party support. Finally, the suggestion that this period was one of ‘Conservative hegemony’ is considered.

The Way Things Were

This chapter concerns the British general elections of 1964, 1966, and 1970. The first contest ended thirteen years of Conservative government, although Labour secured an overall majority of just four seats. The 1966 election resulted in a comfortable victory for Labour, which was expected to win again in 1970. Instead, the Conservatives confounded the opinion polls and returned to office. In each case relevant developments in the preceding inter-election period are described (including trends in party popularity) and an account of the campaign provided. In addition, the election results themselves—patterns of party support and of turnout—are extensively analysed. The chapter also sets out the contemporary explanation of party choice in Britain offered by the influential work of Butler and Stokes which stressed the primary roles of class and party identification.

Conclusion

This chapter sums up the preceding discussion and examines the radical changes in the nature of electoral competition in the UK since 1964. In particular, it assesses the impact on campaigning of social media and the Internet. It also discusses the impact of social change on voting behaviour over the years, as well as the transformation of political parties and the very different composition of the House of Commons. These various changes had occurred while UK-wide elections are still conducted under the Simple Plurality (‘first-past-the-post’) electoral system, although a variety of different systems have been adopted for virtually all other elections. Thus, by 2021, almost the only factor in UK elections which has remained constant since 1964 is the voting system. In other respects, the volatility which has become increasingly marked since the 1960s looks set to continue.

‘Decade of Dealignment’

This chapter concerns the British general elections of February 1974, October 1974, and 1979 during what came to be known as the ‘Decade of Dealignment’. The first two contests were closely fought, resulting in no overall majority (February 1974) and a slender Labour majority (October 1974). However, the resulting Labour governments were beset by severe economic problems, leading some commentators to claim that Britain had become ‘ungovernable’. In the 1979 general election the Conservatives returned to office under a leader (Margaret Thatcher) who was determined to reverse the country’s post-war decline. In each case, relevant developments in the preceding inter-election period are described (including trends in party popularity) and an account of the campaign provided. In addition, the election results themselves—patterns of party support and of turnout—are extensively analysed. The chapter also focuses on three areas investigated by researchers at the time—explanations for non-voting, the sources of support for the Liberal Party, and the rise of ‘issue voting’.

The Brexit Elections, 2017–19

The years immediately after the 2015 general election were dominated by another vote, held in 2016. In 2013, the electoral challenge from UKIP had forced David Cameron to promise an in–out referendum on the EU should his party win the next general election. Cameron fulfilled his promise, after negotiations with the EU which only partially addressed the grievances of Eurosceptics in UKIP and within his own party. The chapter discusses the narrow victory for ‘Leave’ in the 2016 referendum, arising from divisions within the UK which cut across previous party allegiances and introduced a new element of volatility in an electorate which was already barely recognizable from that of 1964. The situation was complicated further by the election of the radical left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader after his party’s 2015 defeat. By contrast, when David Cameron resigned as Conservative leader and Prime Minister after the referendum he was succeeded by Theresa May, who was regarded as a pragmatic centre-right politician who could negotiate a compromise ‘Brexit’ deal with the EU. The chapter examines May’s failure to carry out this promise, marked in particular by her inept attempt to secure a convincing parliamentary majority in the 2017 general election. When May was forced from office in 2019 she was succeeded by Boris Johnson, a far more controversial and divisive character who nevertheless was able to lead the Conservatives to a comfortable electoral victory, not least because their pro-European opponents were hopelessly divided. However, the victorious Conservatives had no reason to feel complacent; even if Johnson’s government could deliver the favourable Brexit deal which it had promised, over the years since 1964 the British electorate had become far more fickle and parties were increasingly vulnerable to events outside their control. Within a few months of the 2019 election, party competition in Britain, which had seemed so stable back in 1964, was exposed to a new and deadly source of disturbance—the outbreak in China of the Covid-19 virus—which presented the most serious challenge faced by any UK government since 1945.

The Triumph of New Labour

This chapter covers the three consecutive election victories recorded by ‘New’ Labour, under Tony Blair, and assesses the reasons for the party’s remarkable run of success after almost two decades in opposition. The key events of the 1992–7 parliament are recorded, showing how John Major’s Conservatives lost their reputation for economic competence shortly after the 1992 contest and never recovered from the blow of ‘Black Wednesday’. The chapter shows that the Conservatives were also seriously divided in the wake of the Maastricht Treaty (1992), and their prospects were impaired by allegations of ‘sleaze’. By contrast, Labour under Blair seemed fresh and relatively united. Apart from recounting the party’s successful campaigns in 1997, 2001, and 2005, the chapter also examines the reasons for the eventual decline of New Labour, in particular the feud between Blair and his Chancellor, Gordon Brown, but also the decision to support the USA in its war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq (beginning in 2003). As a consequence of these troubles, New Labour’s landslide margin of victory in 1997 and 2001 was reduced significantly in 2005, despite the continuing unpopularity of the Conservatives. The anti-war Liberal Democrats emerged as a serious threat on Labour’s left. Changes in voting behaviour are also noted, in particular the continuing decline of social class as a factor in electoral outcomes.