Water yield and sediment export in small, partially glaciated Alpine watersheds in a warming climate

Hydrologic ecosystem services are greatly affected by the changing climate. In this study, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used to quantify hydrologic ecosystem services. Five general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were selected to estimate hydrologic ecosystem services. The Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) index was used to identify hydrologic ecosystem hotspots. The hotspots were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the services. Results indicate that annual water yields vary from −17% to 8%, with significant intra-year fluctuation. Compared to baseline data, the CESM1-CAM5 predicts an increase of 45% in June, but HadGEM2-AO predicts a drop to only 12% in January. Sediment export results show a similar trend to water yield, with sediment export increasing significantly under RCP 8.5, and monthly sediment export increases concentrated from June and October. Nitrogen and phosphorous exports both show less significant changes but obvious intra-year variations. The CESM1-CAM5 predicts strong seasonal and spatial variation of the hydrologic ecosystem services. Our proposed approach successfully identifies annual and monthly hotspot spatial changes of hydrologic ecosystem services under climate change.

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How Experts’ Opinions and Knowledge Affect Their Willingness to Pay for and Ranking of Hydrological Ecosystem Services

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su122310055 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (23) ◽

pp. 10055

Author(s):

Li-Chun Peng ◽

Wan-Yu Lien ◽

Yu-Pin Lin

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Willingness To Pay ◽

Policy Decision ◽

Economic Cost ◽

Water Yield ◽

Expert Opinions ◽

Decision Making Processes ◽

Policy Decision Making ◽

Sediment Export

To ensure that ecosystem services are included in decision-making processes, many studies have relied on expert opinions and knowledge to identify, rank, and assess willingness to pay. In this study, expert opinions according to their expertise in hydrology, ecology, and sociology were surveyed and compared in terms of (1) recognition and ranking of hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) and (2) willingness to pay for HESs. The decision-making process was also investigated, specifically the rankings of factors in experts’ plans for climate change adaptation. The experts’ recognition of and opinions concerning HESs were positively correlated at various levels with intention to pay (i.e., whether respondents were willing to pay for HESs). Most experts recognized the importance of HESs and allocated high average scores of 9.15, 8.17, and 8.41 to water yield, sediment export, and nutrient export, respectively, using a scale from 1 (least important) to 10 (most important). The percentage of sociologists (100%) exhibited greater intention to pay than those of hydrologists (70%) and ecologists (93%), respectively. Experts prioritized environmental impact over economic cost in policy decision-making, and they differed significantly by field in terms of their rankings of the functional, economic, environmental, and social considerations of decision-making. The results revealed significant differences among experts in their decision-making preferences according to their fields of knowledge. The experts of a specific study field may be more willing to pay for that than for another. Greater intellectual exchange and analysis among experts should be implemented and diverse expert opinions should be solicited in policy decision-making.

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Assessing Hydrological Ecosystem Services in a Rubber-Dominated Watershed under Scenarios of Land Use and Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10020176 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 176 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Kevin Thellmann ◽

Reza Golbon ◽

Marc Cotter ◽

Georg Cadisch ◽

Folkard Asch

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Management ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Water Yield ◽

Wide Range ◽

Land Use Scenarios ◽

Sediment Export ◽

Model Water

Land use and climate change exert pressure on ecosystems and threaten the sustainable supply of ecosystem services (ESS). In Southeast-Asia, the shift from swidden farming to permanent cash crop systems has led to a wide range of impacts on ESS. Our study area, the Nabanhe Reserve in Yunnan province (PR China), saw the loss of extensive forest areas and the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Müll. Arg.) plantations. In this study, we model water yield and sediment export for a rubber-dominated watershed under multiple scenarios of land use and climate change in order to assess how both drivers influence the supply of these ESS. For this we use three stakeholder-validated land use scenarios, varying in their degree of rubber expansion and land management rules. As projected climate change varies remarkably between different climate models, we combined the land use scenarios with datasets of temperature and precipitation changes, derived from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in order to model water yield and sediment export with InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs). Simulation results show that the effect of land use and land management decisions on water yield in Nabanhe Reserve are relatively minor (4% difference in water yield between land use scenarios), when compared to the effects that future climate change will exert on water yield (up to 15% increase or 13% decrease in water yield compared to the baseline climate). Changes in sediment export were more sensitive to land use change (15% increase or 64% decrease) in comparison to the effects of climate change (up to 10% increase). We conclude that in the future, particularly dry years may have a more pronounced effect on the water balance as the higher potential evapotranspiration increases the probability for periods of water scarcity, especially in the dry season. The method we applied can easily be transferred to regions facing comparable land use situations, as InVEST and the IPCC data are freely available.

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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ESTIMASI HASIL AIR DARI DAERAH TANGKAPAN AIR DANAU RAWA PENING DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL INVEST

MAJALAH ILMIAH GLOBE ◽

10.24895/mig.2017.19-2.578 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 157

Author(s):

Nunung Puji Nugroho

Keyword(s):

Spatial Distribution ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Water Resources ◽

High Water ◽

Water Yield ◽

Accurate Information ◽

Yield Model ◽

Catchment Areas ◽

Integrated Valuation ◽

Valuation Of Ecosystem Services

ABSTRAKInformasi hasil air dari suatu ekosistem sangat penting dalam pengelolaan sumber daya air. Dalam perencanaan kegiatan konservasi sumber daya air, informasi sebaran spasial hasil air diperlukan untuk menentukan prioritas wilayah terkait dengan alokasi anggaran. Hasil air dari suatu ekosistem atau daerah aliran sungai (DAS) dapat diestimasi dengan menggunakan model hidrologi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan informasi tentang hasil air, baik besaran maupun sebaran spasialnya, dari daerah tangkapan air (DTA) Danau Rawa Pening. Hasil air dari lokasi penelitian dihitung dengan menggunakan model hasil air pada InVEST (the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs), yang didasarkan pada pendekatan neraca air. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa volume hasil air di DTA Danau Rawa Pening pada tahun 2015 adalah sekitar 337 juta m3. SubDAS Galeh, sebagai subDAS terluas, merupakan penghasil air terbesar (72,4 juta m3) diikuti oleh subDAS Sraten (66,8 juta m3) dan Parat (62,4 juta m3). Secara spasial, hasil air di lokasi kajian mempunyai nilai antara 0 hingga 29.634,19 m3/ha. Wilayah hulu dan tengah subDAS Sraten secara umum mempunyai hasil air yang lebih tinggi, sedangkan wilayah danau dan sekitarnya serta hulu subDAS Galeh mempunyai hasil air yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan wilayah lainnya. Wilayah dengan hasil air tinggi dapat diprioritaskan dalam kegiatan konservasi sumber daya air untuk mendukung pasokan air ke Danau Rawa Pening.Kata kunci: hasil air, daerah tangkapan air, model InVEST, Danau Rawa PeningABSTRACTAccurate information on water yield from an ecosystem is very important in the management of water resources. In the planning of water resources conservation activities, the information on the spatial distribution of water yield is needed to determine regional priorities related to budget allocations. The water yield from an ecosystem or watershed can be estimated using a hydrological model. This study aimed to obtain information about the water yield, both the magnitude and their spatial distribution, from the catchment areas of Lake Rawa Pening. The water yield from the study area was calculated using the water yield model in InVEST (the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs), which based on the water balance approach. The results indicated that the volume of water yield in Lake Rawa Pening for 2015 is approximately 337 million m3. Galeh subwatershed, as the largest subwatershed, is the largest water producer (72.4 million m3), followed by Sraten subwatershed (66.8 million m3) and Parat subwatershed (62.4 million m3). Spatially, the water yield at the study site has a value between 0 to 29,634.19 m3/ha. Upstream and middle areas of Sraten subwatershed generally have higher water yield, while the lake and its surrounding areas as well as the upstream of Galeh subwatershed have lower water yield compared to other regions. The regions with high water yield can be prioritized in water resource conservation activities to support the supply of water to Lake Rawa Pening.Keywords: water yield, catchment areas, InVEST model, Lake Rawa Pening

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