scholarly journals Electricity Usage Efficiency and Electricity Demand Modeling in the Case of Germany and the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branislav Dudic ◽  
Jan Smolen ◽  
Pavel Kovac ◽  
Borislav Savkovic ◽  
Zdenka Dudic
Keyword(s):  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Demand Modeling ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Demand Forecasting Model ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Combined Impact

In this article, monthly and yearly electricity consumption predictions for the German power market were calculated using the multiple variable regression model. This model accounts for several factors that are often neglected when forecasting electricity demand in practice, in particular the role of the higher efficiency of electricity usage from year to year. The analysis performed in this paper helps to explain why no growth in power consumption has been observed in Germany during the last decade. It shows that the electricity efficiency usage dataset is a relevant input for the model, which mitigates the combined impact of other factors on the final electricity consumption. The electricity demand forecasting model presented in this article was built in the year 2013 with forecasts for the future years’ electricity demand in Germany provided until 2020. These forecasts and related findings are also evaluated in this article.

scholarly journals Changes in the Prevalence of Disability among Older Adults in India: Longitudinal Influence of Socio-economic and Health-related Factors

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronak Paul ◽  
Shobhit Srivast ◽  
Muhammad Thalil ◽  
Rashmi Rashmi
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Wealth Quintile ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Double Burden ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Disability Status ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression

Abstract Background: While experiencing a double burden of both communicable and non-communicable diseases, three-fourth of the Indian population aged 50 and above are suffering from some form of disability. Existing studies on physical limitations highlight the determinants of late-life disabilities, however, limited evidence has shown how the socio-economic and health-related factors influence the elderly recovering or acquiring disability status in the Indian context. Method: The current study uses two waves of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) and is based on panel data of 10527 older adults. Both bivariate and multiple variable regression analysis were performed using two binary outcome variables in this study – whether older adults acquired disability and recovered from disability between round-I and round-II, respectively.Results: Nearly 31.5% and 4.4% of older adults have acquired and recovered disability across the two rounds respectively. 38.5% and 45.8% of female older adults’ disability status changes to disable and recovered in round 2 respectively. A lesser proportion of older adults have recovered from a disability who have a chronic disease in round 1. Cataract chronic conditions among older adults in round 1 had shown 1.45 times (CI: 1.07-1.97) a significantly higher likelihood of acquiring disability in round 2. Older adults who were unmarried and were not working in round 1 have 1.12 times (CI: 1.01-1.25) and 1.21 times (CI: 1.06-1.39) a higher likelihood of acquiring disability in round 2 respectively. Recovering from disability was mostly seen among older adults who belong to the richest (OR: 2.38, CI: 1.31-4.33) and medium (OR: 2.16, CI: 1.27-3.69) wealth quintile households. Older adults residing in the central region of India have 2.72 times (CI: 2.31-3.19) significantly higher chance of acquiring disability than those who were residing in northern regions.Conclusion: Appropriate measures are required to highlight the importance of chronic physical diseases and several socio-demographic factors that may negatively affect the trajectory of disability in older ages.

scholarly journals Reservoir Yield Analysis Using Multiple Variable Regression Screening Model and Its Comparison: A Study of 28 Water Supply Dams in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-74
Author(s):  
Hock-Hwee Heng ◽  
Ching-Poon Hii ◽  
Fei-Lu Siaw ◽  
Wang-Fook Pan ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Operation Mode ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Water Treatment Plant ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression ◽  
Reservoir Yield

This paper presents the study of water supply dams in Malaysia using the Storage Yield Reliability (SYR) model. The model is a linearized regressed equation with five independent variables comprising of hydrological and physical properties of the reservoir system, namely dam inflows and its statistical moment properties, reservoir storage capacity, and designated return periods or probability of non-exceedance of low flow. A total of twenty eight water supply reservoir schemes were selected for comparison in this study. Seventeen and eleven reservoirs respectively operated under direct supply (DS) and regulating reservoir (RR) modes. The estimated SYR yields were compared to the known water treatment plant (WTP) capacities of these reservoir schemes. Out of five variables, catchment area (indirectly proportionate to dam inflows) and storage capacity are positively correlated to the estimated SYR yields. The SYR model adopted in this study could provide quick yield assessment for all the twenty eight DS and RR reservoir schemes in Malaysia. In summary, the multivariate regression model SYR approach can be used as the first screening process of DS and RR operation mode reservoir yield estimation in Malaysia.

scholarly journals Determinants of acquired disability and recovery from disability in Indian older adults: longitudinal influence of socio-economic and health-related factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronak Paul ◽  
Shobhit Srivastava ◽  
T. Muhammad ◽  
Rashmi Rashmi
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Functional Disability ◽  
Wealth Quintile ◽  
National Sample ◽  
Acquired Disability ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Disability Status ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression

Abstract Background There is a higher burden of functional disability for Indian older adults with substantial variations across different geographic regions and socioeconomic groups as compared to other ageing Asian countries. Thus, using a national sample of older adults aged 60+ years, we aim to explore how common is acquiring of disability and recovery from disability among the older population of a developing country like India, and how do the various socioeconomic and health-related conditions impact this transition in disability status. Method The current study uses two waves of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) and is based on panel data of 10,527 older adults. Both bivariate and multiple variable regression analysis were performed using two binary outcome variables in this study – whether older adults acquired disability and recovered from disability between round-I and round-II, respectively. Results Nearly 31.5% and 4.4 % of older adults have acquired and recovered disability across the two rounds respectively. About 38.5%  and 45.8 % of female older adults’ disability status changes to disable and recovered in round-II respectively. A lesser proportion of older adults have recovered from a disability who have a chronic disease in round-I. Cataract chronic conditions among older adults in round-I had shown 1.45 times (CI: 1.07–1.97) a significantly higher likelihood of acquiring disability in round-I. Older adults who were unmarried and were not working in round-I have 1.12 times (CI: 1.01–1.25) and 1.21 times (CI: 1.06–1.39) higher likelihood of acquiring disability in round-II respectively. Recovering from disability was mostly seen among older adults who belong to the richest (OR: 2.38, CI: 1.31–4.33) and medium (OR: 2.16, CI: 1.27–3.69) wealth quintile households. Older adults residing in the central region of India have 2.72 times (CI: 2.31–3.19) significantly higher chance of acquiring disability than those who were residing in northern regions. Conclusion Appropriate measures are required to highlight the importance of chronic physical diseases and several socio-demographic factors that may negatively affect the trajectory of disability in older ages.

Validation of a real-time patient-reported experience measurement tool for cancer patients in Ontario.

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 174-174
Author(s):  
Lesley Moody ◽  
Sarah Benn ◽  
Luciano Ieraci ◽  
Saurabh Ingale ◽  
Simron Singh
Keyword(s):  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Patient Experience ◽  
Cancer Care ◽  
System Level ◽  
Cronbach Alpha ◽  
Ambulatory Oncology ◽  
Patient Reported ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression

174 Background: Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) organizes and ensures quality cancer care for 16 million residents in Ontario. CCO's goal is to create a tool to enable reporting of the patient experience in real time. The study objective was to develop a validated real-time (close to or at point of care) patient reported experience measurement (PREM) tool to drive quality improvement, advance system planning and ensure cost effective resource allocation based on patients’ needs, wants and preferences in ambulatory oncology treatment phase. Methods: Consisting of 28 questions – 18 core questions; 2 open-ended responses; and 8 demographic questions the tool underwent cognitive testing with patient family advisors and was validated using a pilot at 6 cancer centres from April to August, 2015. It was administered using several delivery modes: tablets, patient portals, post cards and paper. The patient journey in visiting centres was conceptualized as containing the steps or domains of interest: arrival, appointment/consultation and overall experience. To validate the patient experience conceptual model, an exploratory factor analysis was performed and compared to CCO’s 8 domain patient experience model. Reliability and validity of the tool was tested using Cronbach’s alpha and multiple variable regression analysis in partnership with Ipsos Reid. Results: 557 responses (496 electronic and 61 paper) formed the basis of the analysis. The tool was shown to be both valid and reliable - an overall adjusted R2 value of 64% from multiple variable regression on overall patient experience; and an overall Cronbach alpha value of 0.83, respectively. Individual Cronbach alpha values ranged from: 0.69 for “appointment/consultation”, 0.55 for “overall experience” and 0.24 for patient “arrival.” Conclusions: Statistical analysis results were used to produce a final validated tool for deployment to systematically capture PREMs through an electronic system in Ontario, Canada in 2016.To our knowledge this is the first of its kind. Collection of real time PREMS will ensure local and system level planning and quality improvement in the cancer system are rooted in what matters most to patients and their families.

Abstract 12258: Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest With Initially Shockable Rhythm: What Are the Outcomes if No Shock is Given?

Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Xiong ◽  
Ahamed H Idris
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Hospital Discharge ◽  
Spontaneous Circulation ◽  
Shock Delivery ◽  
Return Of Spontaneous Circulation ◽  
Shockable Rhythm ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Resuscitation Attempt

Background: Prompt defibrillation is critical for termination of ventricular fibrillation (VF) or pulseless ventricular tachycardia (VT) in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). For ethical reasons, the real impact of not shocking OHCA patients with a shockable rhythm is unlikely to be investigated in clinical trials and thus remains unknown. Objectives: To describe demographics, pre-hospital characteristics, interventions, and outcomes in OHCA patients with an initially shockable rhythm who did and did not get shocked in the field in DFW ROC site. Methods: We included all non-traumatic OHCA cases ≥18 years old with VF or VT as first known rhythms, who were treated and transported to a hospital within the DFW ROC site between 2006 - 2011. We report return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in the field and survival to hospital discharge for victims with and without shock delivered in the field. Multiple variable regression analysis assessed the association between shock delivery and ROSC in the field as well as survival. Results: Included were 882 adult non-traumatic OHCA cases with VF or VT as first known rhythms; mean (±SD) age was 60 ± 15 years, 71% male, bystander witnessed 56%, bystander resuscitation attempt 43%, public arrest location 26%, EMS response time 4.7 ± 2.3 min, 26.9% (237) had ROSC in the field, 14.9% (131) survived to hospital discharge; 93.4% (824) of all patients were shocked, while 6.6% (58) were not shocked. Of the 6.6% (58) who were not shocked, 12.1% (7) achieved ROSC in the field and 8.6% (5) survived to hospital discharge. For those not shocked in the field, the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios for ROSC were 0.354 (95% CI 0.158-0.791, p=0.011) and 0.189 (95% CI 0.039-0.911, p=0.038), respectively; and for survival to hospital discharge they were 0.522 (95% CI 0.205-1.331, p=0.173) and 0.498 (95% CI 0.088-2.810, p=0.430), respectively. Conclusions: In the DFW ROC site, 6.6% of OHCA victims with an initially shockable rhythm did not receive a shock, which was significantly associated with decreased ROSC in the field. More patients survived who were shocked in the field, but this difference was not significant after adjustment for Utstein variables.

Socio-Economic Status and MultiOriginal morbidity – Fact or Fiction?

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-70
Author(s):  
Declan Byrne ◽  
Seán Cournane ◽  
Richard Conway ◽  
Deirdre O’Riordan ◽  
Bernard Silke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Low Ses ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Socio Economic Status ◽  
Mortality Outcome ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Disproportionate Number ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression

Background: Areas of low socio-economic status (SES) have a disproportionate number of emergency medical admissions; we quantitate the profile of multi-morbidity related to SES. Methods: We developed a logistic multiple variable regression model, based on over 15 years of hospital data, to examine the effect of socio-demography on hospital outcomes. Results: Admissions from low SES cohort were a decade younger, and had a shorter hospital stay, and lower 30-day episode mortality outcome. The number of morbidities was equivalent between groups, but the more disadvantaged were more likely to have a respiratory diagnosis or diabetes. Conclusion: Low SES emergency admissions present > 10 yr. earlier than the high SES population; their equivalent multimorbidity, despite a lower age, could reflect accelerated disease progression.

Current State and Prospects of Russian Outbound Tourism

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Aleksandrovich KOZLOV
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Quality Parameters ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Flow Problems ◽  
Current State ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression ◽  
Future Condition

The main aim of this paper is to analyze the Russian outbound tourism flow: problems of Russian tourist market, causes and consequences of repeated crisises. According to key findings, Russian tourist market is influenced by several factors. Developed equation of multiple variable regression model indicates that the main factors are wage of Russian’s converted in Euro and gross domestic product per capita. Regression model has great quality parameters and may be used to predict future condition of Russian outbound tourism. Russian Government makes all efforts to reorient own population to domestic tourism cutting off access to the rich world heritage. The decline in real incomes, the lack of regulation of tourist activities, the shortcomings of legislation, the lack of responsibility to customers are led to the decreasing of Russian outbound and domestic tourisms.

scholarly journals Does the frequency of routine follow-up after curative treatment for head-and-neck cancer affect survival?

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. F. Hall ◽  
T. Owen ◽  
R. J. Griffiths ◽  
K. Brennan
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Head And Neck Cancer ◽  
Head And Neck ◽  
Neck Cancer ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Multiple Variable ◽  
Multiple Variable Regression ◽  
Oncology Practice

Background: Routine follow-up is a cornerstone of oncology practice but evidence is lacking to support most aspects.   Our Objective was to investigate the relationship between frequency of routine follow-up and survival.Methods: A population-based study using electronic health-care data based on 5310 patients from Ontario diagnosed with squamous cell head and neck cancer between 2007 and 2012.  Treatments included surgery (24.6%), radiotherapy +/- chemotherapy (52.4%) and combined surgery and radiotherapy (23%).  We determined the follow-up oncologist for each patient, calculated the average follow-up visits over 2.5 years for all the patients of each oncologist and compared by treatment the overall survival of the patients for the high, medium and low follow-up oncologist groups using Kaplan Meier and multiple variable regression analysis.  Results:  Many oncologists saw patients 40 to 80% more often than others. There was no relationship between appointment frequency and survival for patients for any treatment group.Conclusion:  The practice of routine follow-up varies and is costly to both a health care system and to patients.  Without evidence on the effectiveness of our current policies further research is required to investigate new or optimal practices. 

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