Navigating the modelling puzzle: Using forward and inverse models to make clear decisions when exploring and interpreting cooling ages in both HeFTy and QTQt.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyssa Langford Abbey ◽  
Kendra Murray ◽  
Andrea Stevens Goddard ◽  
Mark Wildman
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Models

Curve Estimation Modeling for Predictions of the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) Epidemic in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Christian Ebere Enyoh ◽  
Andrew Wirnkor Verla ◽  
Chidi Edbert Duru ◽  
Emmanuel Chinedu Enyoh ◽  
Budi Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
State Governments ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Curve Estimation ◽  
Exponential Models ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
Forward Prediction ◽  
S Curve ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Official Data

Based on the official Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) data, the current research paper modeled the confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Nigeria. Ten different curve regression models including linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, compound, power, S-curve, growth, and exponential were used to fit the obtained official data. The cubic (R2 = 0.999) model gave the best fit for the entire country. However, the growth and exponential had the lowest standard error of estimate (0.958) and thus may best be used. The equations for these models were e0.78897+0.0944x and 2.2011e0.0944x respectively. In terms of confirmed cases in individual State, quadratic, cubic, compound, growth, power and exponential models generally best describe the official data for many states except for the state of Kogi which is best fitted with S-curve and inverse models.  The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small especially for compound, power, growth and exponential models. The computed models will help to realized forward prediction and backward inference of the epidemic situation in Nigeria, and the relevant analysis help Federal and State governments to make vital decisions on how to manage the lockdown in the country.

scholarly journals Can We Infer Diapycnal Mixing Rates from the World Ocean Temperature–Salinity Distribution?

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (12) ◽  
pp. 3751-3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Arzel ◽  
Alain Colin de Verdière
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Eddy Diffusivity ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Diapycnal Mixing ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference

AbstractThe turbulent diapycnal mixing in the ocean is currently obtained from microstructure and finestructure measurements, dye experiments, and inverse models. This study presents a new method that infers the diapycnal mixing from low-resolution numerical calculations of the World Ocean whose temperatures and salinities are restored to the climatology. At the difference of robust general circulation ocean models, diapycnal diffusion is not prescribed but inferred. At steady state the buoyancy equation shows an equilibrium between the large-scale diapycnal advection and the restoring terms that take the place of the divergence of eddy buoyancy fluxes. The geography of the diapycnal flow reveals a strong regional variability of water mass transformations. Positive values of the diapycnal flow indicate an erosion of a deep-water mass and negative values indicate a creation. When the diapycnal flow is upward, a diffusion law can be fitted in the vertical and the diapycnal eddy diffusivity is obtained throughout the water column. The basin averages of diapycnal diffusivities are small in the first 1500 m [O(10−5) m2 s−1] and increase downward with bottom values of about 2.5 × 10−4 m2 s−1 in all ocean basins, with the exception of the Southern Ocean (50°–30°S), where they reach 12 × 10−4 m2 s−1. This study confirms the small diffusivity in the thermocline and the robustness of the higher canonical Munk’s value in the abyssal ocean. It indicates that the upward dianeutral transport in the Atlantic mostly takes place in the abyss and the upper ocean, supporting the quasi-adiabatic character of the middepth overturning.

A Comparison of Inverse Models for the Estimation of Ice-Induced Propeller Moments on a Polar Vessel

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendon M. Nickerson ◽  
Anriëtte Bekker
Keyword(s):  
Rotational Speed ◽  
Continuous Model ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Lumped Mass ◽  
Mass Model ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
Lumped Mass Model ◽  
Ill Posed ◽  
Shaft Torque ◽  
Measurement Location

Abstract Full-scale measurements were conducted on the port side propulsion shaft the S.A. Agulhas II during the 2019 SCALE Spring Cruise. The measurements included the shaft torque captured at two separate measurement locations, and the shaft rotational speed at one measurement location. The ice-induced propeller moments are estimated from the full-scale shaft responses using two inverse models. The first is a published discrete lumped mass model that relies on regularization due to the inverse problem being ill-posed. This model is only able to make use of the propulsion shaft torque as inputs. The second model is new and employs modal superposition to represent the propulsion shaft as a combination of continuous modes, resulting in a well-posed problem. This new model requires the additional measurement of the shaft rotational speed for the inverse solution. The continuous model is shown to be more consistent and efficient, which allows its use in real-time monitoring of propeller moments.

Tectonic controls on basement exhumation in the southern Rocky Mountains (United States): The power of combined zircon (U-Th)/He and K-feldspar 40Ar/39Ar thermochronology

Geology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason W. Ricketts ◽  
Jacoup Roiz ◽  
Karl E. Karlstrom ◽  
Matthew T. Heizler ◽  
William R. Guenthner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Rocky Mountain ◽  
Snowball Earth ◽  
Southern Rocky Mountains ◽  
Basement Rocks ◽  
Rocky Mountain Region ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
Multiple Pulses ◽  
Differential Uplift

The Great Unconformity of the Rocky Mountain region (western North America), where Precambrian crystalline basement is nonconformably overlain by Phanerozoic strata, represents the removal of as much as 1.5 b.y. of rock record during 10-km-scale basement exhumation. We evaluate the timing of exhumation of basement rocks at five locations by combining geologic data with multiple thermochronometers. 40Ar/39Ar K-feldspar multi-diffusion domain (MDD) modeling indicates regional multi-stage basement cooling from 275 to 150 °C occurred at 1250–1100 Ma and/or 1000–700 Ma. Zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) dates from the Rocky Mountains range from 20 to 864 Ma, and independent forward modeling of ZHe data is also most consistent with multi-stage cooling. ZHe inverse models at five locations, combined with K-feldspar MDD and sample-specific geochronologic and/or thermochronologic constraints, document multiple pulses of basement cooling from 250 °C to surface temperatures with a major regional basement exhumation event 1300–900 Ma, limited cooling in some samples during the 770–570 Ma breakup of Rodinia and/or the 717–635 Ma snowball Earth, and ca. 300 Ma Ancestral Rocky Mountains cooling. These data argue for a tectonic control on basement exhumation leading up to formation of the Precambrian-Cambrian Great Unconformity and document the formation of composite erosional surfaces developed by faulting and differential uplift.

scholarly journals Quantification of Sub-Solar Star Ages from the Symmetry of Conjugate Histograms of Spin Period and Angular Velocity

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1519
Author(s):  
Robert E. Criss ◽  
Anne M. Hofmeister
Keyword(s):  
Angular Velocity ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Axial Rotation ◽  
Open Clusters ◽  
Interstellar Gas ◽  
Spin Period ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
Star Production ◽  
Star Ages ◽  
Large Clusters

Empirical laws proposed for the decline in star spin with time have heretofore been tested using ambiguous fitting models. We develop an analytical inverse model that uses histogram data to unequivocally determine the physical law governing how dwarf star spin depends on time (t) and mass (M). We analyze shapes of paired histograms of axial rotation period (П) and angular velocity (ω = 2π/П) to utilize the fact that a variable and its reciprocal are governed by the same physics. Copious data on open clusters are used to test the formula ∂ω/∂t ∝ − ωn where n is unrestricted, and thus covers diverse possibilities. Histogram conjugates for each of 15 clusters with 120 to 812 measurements provide n = 1.13 ± 0.19. Results are independent of initial spin rate, bin size, cluster parameters, and star mass. Notably, 11 large clusters with mostly M-types yield fits with n = 1.07 ± 0.12. Associations behave similarly. Only exponential decay (n = 1) explains the similar shapes of the conjugate histograms for the spin period and angular velocity, despite the asymmetric (inverse) relationship of these variables. This rate law is consistent with viscous dissipation. Forward modeling confirms that n is near unity and further shows that coeval formation of all stars in a cluster does not occur. We therefore explore a constant rate of star production, which is reasonable for tiny stars. Inverse models show that episodic production increases with mass, but is unimportant below ~0.55 MSun. We infer star and cluster ages, and find that star production becomes less regular with time, as interstellar gas and dust are progressively depleted. Our new analytical approach of extracting a physical law from conjugate histograms is general and widely applicable.

scholarly journals Climate Process Team on Internal Wave–Driven Ocean Mixing

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (11) ◽  
pp. 2429-2454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. MacKinnon ◽  
Zhongxiang Zhao ◽  
Caitlin B. Whalen ◽  
Amy F. Waterhouse ◽  
David S. Trossman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Internal Wave ◽  
Turbulent Mixing ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Internal Tide ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
Lee Waves ◽  
Mixing Rates

Abstract Diapycnal mixing plays a primary role in the thermodynamic balance of the ocean and, consequently, in oceanic heat and carbon uptake and storage. Though observed mixing rates are on average consistent with values required by inverse models, recent attention has focused on the dramatic spatial variability, spanning several orders of magnitude, of mixing rates in both the upper and deep ocean. Away from ocean boundaries, the spatiotemporal patterns of mixing are largely driven by the geography of generation, propagation, and dissipation of internal waves, which supply much of the power for turbulent mixing. Over the last 5 years and under the auspices of U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR), a National Science Foundation (NSF)- and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-supported Climate Process Team has been engaged in developing, implementing, and testing dynamics-based parameterizations for internal wave–driven turbulent mixing in global ocean models. The work has primarily focused on turbulence 1) near sites of internal tide generation, 2) in the upper ocean related to wind-generated near inertial motions, 3) due to internal lee waves generated by low-frequency mesoscale flows over topography, and 4) at ocean margins. Here, we review recent progress, describe the tools developed, and discuss future directions.

scholarly journals Climate reconstruction from pollen and δ<sup>13</sup>C records using inverse vegetation modeling – Implication for past and future climates

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hatté ◽  
D.-D. Rousseau ◽  
J. Guiot
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Isotopic Niche ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Reconstruction Methods ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An improved inverse vegetation model has been designed to better specify both temperature and precipitation estimates from vegetation descriptions. It is based on the BIOME4 vegetation model and uses both vegetation δ13C and biome as constraints. Previous inverse models based on only one of the two proxies were already improvements over standard reconstruction methods such as the modern analog since these did not take into account some external forcings, for example CO2 concentration. This new approach makes it possible to describe a potential "isotopic niche" defined by analogy with the "climatic niche" theory. Boreal and temperate biomes simulated by BIOME4 are considered in this study. We demonstrate the impact of CO2 concentration on biome existence domains by replacing a "most likely biome" with another with increased CO2 concentration. Additionally, the climate imprint on δ13C between and within biomes is shown: the colder the biome, the lighter its potential isotopic niche; and the higher the precipitation, the lighter the δ13C. For paleoclimate purposes, previous inverse models based on either biome or δ13C did not allow informative paleoclimatic reconstructions of both precipitation and temperature. Application of the new approach to the Eemian of La Grande Pile palynological and geochemical records reduces the range in precipitation values by more than 50% reduces the range in temperatures by about 15% compared to previous inverse modeling approaches. This shows evidence of climate instabilities during Eemian period that can be correlated with independent continental and marine records.

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