Evaluating Australia's most complex system-of-systems, the future submarine: A case for using new Complex Systems Governance

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-199
Author(s):  
Joseph M. Bradley ◽  
Keith F. Joiner ◽  
Mahmoud Efatmaneshnik ◽  
Charles B. Keating
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
System Of Systems ◽  
The Future

How Is the Future Unknown?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martijn van der Steen ◽  
Mark van Twist
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Organizational Strategies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Uncertain Future

The future is inherently uncertain. However, most policies are deliberate attempts to anticipate the future and to change and shape the future in an intended way. This chapter provides concepts for three key elements that are necessary to prepare for an unknown future. First, it conceptualizes what makes the future uncertain; uncertainty does not stem from the amount of time itself, but rather from the dynamics that can play out in that time. That is why it matters significantly if a system is complex or complicated; complex systems are much more dynamic and unpredictable, and complicated systems are much more stable and predictable. Second, there are different approaches for “studying” the dynamics; forecasting and foresight depart from entirely different angles of looking at the future, and both have their own strengths and weakness. Third, there are different organizational strategies for preparing for an unknown future; robustness, resilience, and adaptivity are three possible principles for organizing and preparing for uncertainty. In order to prepare for an uncertain future, or to study the uncertain future, scholars and policymakers should systematically take these three essential steps into account; how is the future unknown, how do we study the future, and what concept for anticipation do we apply here?

In-Between and Through: Architecture and Complexity

2005 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Ribeiro Pereira de Almeida ◽  
Anja Pratschke ◽  
Renata La Rocca
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Software Engineering ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Three Dimensional Modeling ◽  
Dimensional Modeling ◽  
Complex Thought ◽  
Basic Characteristics

This paper draws on current research on complexity and design process in architecture and offers a proposal for how architects might bring complex thought to bear on the understanding of design process as a complex system, to understand architecture as a way of organizing events, and of organizing interaction. Our intention is to explore the hypothesis that the basic characteristics of complex systems – emergence, nonlinearity, self-organization, hologramaticity, and so forth – can function as effective tools for conceptualization that can usefully extend the understanding of the way architects think and act throughout the design process. To illustrate the discussions, we show how architects might bring complex thought inside a transdisciplinary design process by using models such as software engineering diagrams, and three-dimensional modeling network environments such as media to integrate, connect and ‘trans–act’.

scholarly journals Toward Reverse Engineering to Economic Analysis: An Overview of Tools and Methodology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisa Faggini ◽  
Bruna Bruno ◽  
Anna Parziale
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamics ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Reverse Engineering ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages

AbstractFollowing the reverse engineering (RE) approach to analyse an economic complex system is to infer how its underlying mechanism works. The main factors that condition the difficulty of RE are the number of variable components in the system and, most importantly, the interdependence of components on one another and nonlinear dynamics. All those aspects characterize the economic complex systems within which economic agents make their choices. Economic complex systems are adopted in RE science, and they could be used to understand, predict and model the dynamics of the complex systems that enable to define and to control the economic environment. With the RE approach, economic data could be used to peek into the internal workings of the economic complex system, providing information about its underling nonlinear dynamics. The idea of this paper arises from the aim to deepen the comprehension of this approach and to highlight the potential implementation of tools and methodologies based on it to treat economic complex systems. An overview of the literature about the RE is presented, by focusing on the definition and on the state of the art of the research, and then we consider two potential tools that could translate the methodological issues of RE by evidencing advantages and disadvantages for economic analysis: the recurrence analysis and the agent-based model (ABM).

scholarly journals Detection of Emergent Situations in Complex Systems by Structural Invariant (MB, M)

MENDEL ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiri Bila ◽  
Martin Novak
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Detection Method ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Ramsey Theorem ◽  
Structural Invariant

The paper introduces complete description of the detection method that uses structural invariant Matroid and its Bases (MB, M). There are recapitulated essential concepts from the used knowledge field as “complex system, emergent situations (A, B, C)”, Ramsey theorem and principal computation variables “power” and “complexity” of emergence phenomenon. The method is explained in details and the demonstration of its application is done by the detection of emergent situation – violation of Short Water Cycle in an ecosystem.

scholarly journals Assessing Cyber-Worthiness of Complex System Capabilities using MBSE: A new rigorous engineering methodology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart Fowler ◽  
Keith Joiner ◽  
Elena Sitnikova
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Assessment Methodology ◽  
Cyber Attack ◽  
Cyber Threats ◽  
Attack Surface ◽  
Model Based Systems Engineering

<div>Cyber-worthiness as it is termed in Australian Defence, or cyber-maturity more broadly, is a necessary feature of modern complex systems which are required to operate in a hostile cyber environment. To evaluate the cyber-worthiness of complex systems, an assessment methodology is required to examine a complex system’s or system-of-system’s vulnerability to and risk of cyber-attacks that can compromise such systems. This assessment methodology should address the cyber-attack surface and threat kill chains, including supply chains and supporting infrastructure. A cyber-worthiness capability assessment methodology has been developed based on model-based systems engineering concepts to analyse the cyber-worthiness of complex systems and present a risk assessment of various cyber threats to the complex system. This methodology incorporates modelling and simulation methods that provide organisations greater visibility and consistency across diverse systems, especially to drive cybersecurity controls, investment and operational decisions involving aggregated systems. In this paper, the developed methodology will be presented in detail and hypothesised outcomes will be discussed.</div>

Future by Design

Futures ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 500-513
Author(s):  
Christina Garsten ◽  
Adrienne Sörbom
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Shared Understanding ◽  
Perceived Need ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Rational Process ◽  
Sense Of Urgency

This chapter critiques the anticipatory practices of contemporary organizations, such as think tanks and management consultancies, which offer methods and forecasts about possible and desirable futures. These organizations, the chapter argues, contribute to creating a sense of urgency with respect to the future, capitalizing on the perceived need among decision makers to grasp contemporary events, and provide tools and content by which the future can be designed. It argues that future forecast scenarios assist in the creation of a particular type of authority: one geared to the contemporary global situation and to an increasingly complex system of global governance. The chapter interrogates this particular type of authority to argue it is not singular and dominant, but instead comprises the varying interests of many different actors and is underscored by rational process, which offers the possibility of a wider shared understanding

Industry 4.0 From the Systems Engineering Perspective

2020 ◽  
pp. 575-599
Author(s):  
Vladimír Bureš
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Physical Activity ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
Control Level ◽  
Design Development ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
And Control

Systems engineering focuses on design, development, and implementation of complex systems. Not only does the Industry 4.0 concept consist of various technical components that need to be properly set and interconnected, but it is also tied to various managerial aspects. Thus, systems engineering approach can be used for its successful deployment. Overemphasis of technological aspects of Industry 4.0 represents the main starting point of this chapter. Then, collocation analysis, word clusters identification, selection and exemplification of selected domain in the business management realm, and frequency analysis are used in order to develop a holistic framework of Industry 4.0. This framework comprises six levels – physical, activity, outcome, content, triggers, and context. Moreover, the information and control level is integrated. The new holistic framework helps to consider Industry 4.0 from the complex systems engineering perspective – design and deployment of a complex system with required parameters and functionality.

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