Future by Design

Futures ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 500-513
Author(s):  
Christina Garsten ◽  
Adrienne Sörbom
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Shared Understanding ◽  
Perceived Need ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Rational Process ◽  
Sense Of Urgency

This chapter critiques the anticipatory practices of contemporary organizations, such as think tanks and management consultancies, which offer methods and forecasts about possible and desirable futures. These organizations, the chapter argues, contribute to creating a sense of urgency with respect to the future, capitalizing on the perceived need among decision makers to grasp contemporary events, and provide tools and content by which the future can be designed. It argues that future forecast scenarios assist in the creation of a particular type of authority: one geared to the contemporary global situation and to an increasingly complex system of global governance. The chapter interrogates this particular type of authority to argue it is not singular and dominant, but instead comprises the varying interests of many different actors and is underscored by rational process, which offers the possibility of a wider shared understanding

Systems Thinking and Archetypes in the Military, Postulating a New Archetype

2007 ◽  
Vol 51 (21) ◽  
pp. 1458-1462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Rehak ◽  
Tab Lamoureux ◽  
Jerzy Jarmasz ◽  
Jeff Bos
Keyword(s):  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Critical Event ◽  
Shared Understanding ◽  
Event Triggering ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Generic Structures ◽  
The Military

Systems thinking involves looking beyond events to see patterns of behaviour and the underlying systemic interrelationships. This is especially important for teams of planners or decision makers that are required to have a shared understanding of the systems they are affecting. Soon after ‘systems thinking’ emerged, the creation of generic counter-intuitive structures that seem to occur repeatedly in different systems began. These generic structures (which have come to be known as Archetypes) are models that can represent systems across different domains. This paper outlines the most 9 common archetypes that were first proposed by Senge. Finally, a new archetype is proposed that is characterized by a critical event triggering a massive increase in some factor.

Catholicism and Cosmopolitanism: the Confluence of Three Catholic Scholars and the Cosmopolitan Democrats on State Sovereignty and the Future of Global Governance

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-51
Author(s):  
Matthew Bagot
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
State Sovereignty ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Jacques Maritain ◽  
The Past ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cosmopolitan Democracy ◽  
Catholic Tradition

One of the central questions in international relations today is how we should conceive of state sovereignty. The notion of sovereignty—’supreme authority within a territory’, as Daniel Philpott defines it—emerged after the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 as a result of which the late medieval crisis of pluralism was settled. But recent changes in the international order, such as technological advances that have spurred globalization and the emerging norm of the Responsibility to Protect, have cast the notion of sovereignty into an unclear light. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the current debate regarding sovereignty by exploring two schools of thought on the matter: first, three Catholic scholars from the past century—Luigi Sturzo, Jacques Maritain, and John Courtney Murray, S.J.—taken as representative of Catholic tradition; second, a number of contemporary political theorists of cosmopolitan democracy. The paper argues that there is a confluence between the Catholic thinkers and the cosmopolitan democrats regarding their understanding of state sovereignty and that, taken together, the two schools have much to contribute not only to our current understanding of sovereignty, but also to the future of global governance.

ASO GUMBALO SEBAGAI INSPIRAS DALAM PENCIPTAAN SENI LUKIS

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Satri Yadi ◽  
Yuniarti Munaf ◽  
Dhasono Dhasono
Keyword(s):  
Design Phase ◽  
Symbolic Expression ◽  
Ethical Research ◽  
Process Stage ◽  
Form Processing ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Visual Strategies ◽  
Work Done ◽  
Exploration Phase

AbstrakAso Gumbalo dalam penciptaan karya seni lukis diilhami dari kehidupan pengembala yang menjadi inspirasi pencipta yang diungkap melalui media seni lukis dengan mengambil ide “Harapan Pengembala” (Aso Gumbalo). Harapan Gembala dapat diartikan sebagai keinginan, kecendrungan dan dorongan hati yang kuat terhadap sesuatu hal yang ingin direalisasikan untuk menjadikan seorang lebih baik dimasa depan. Pengekspresian ide cipta berangkat dari fenomena Aso Gumbalo yang pencipta ungkap dengan ekspresi simbolik kedalam penciptaan karya seni lukis. Metode penciptaan karya ini melalui tahapan yaitu; 1) Tahap eksplorasi adalah tahap pencarian ide-ide dengan melakukan riset emik dan etik untuk pembuatan karya, 2) Tahap perancangan yaitu tahap pembuatan purwarupa yang akan diwujudkan kedalam bentuk karya seni lukis, 3) Tahap proses garapan karya. Konsep dari penciptaan karya merupakan ekspresi simbolik dengan memanfaatkan idiom tradisi, ekspresi tersebut digambarkan pada perwujudan karya menggunakan strategi media dan strategi visual dengan menggunakan konsep pengolahan bentuk, yaitu disformasi dan transformasi dengan melakukan penggabungan beberapa teknik antara lain, teknik plakat, transparan, tekstur semu dan tekstur nyata. Aso Gumbalo sebagai inspirasi yang diungkapkan dalam bentuk karya seni lukis ekspresi simbolik. Karya-karya yang diciptakan pengkarya disajikan dalam bentukpameran.           Kata Kunci:aso gumbalo, ekspresi simbolik, seni lukis.   AbstractAsoGumbalo in the creation of painting works was inspired from the life of the shepherd who became the inspiration of the creator which revealed through the medium of painting by taking the idea of "Hope of the Shepherd" (AsoGumbalo). Shepherd Hope can be interpreted as a strong desire, inclination and encouragement towards something that wants to be realized to make someone better in the future. The expression of copyrighted ideas departs from the phenomenon of AsoGumbalo, which the creator expressed with a symbolic expression into the creation of painting. This method of creating works through several stages, namely; 1) The exploration phase is the stage of searching for ideas by conducting emic and ethical research for the production of works, 2) the design phase that is the prototype-making stage which will be realized in the form of painting, 3) the process stage of the work done. The concept of creation of works is a symbolic expression by utilizing traditional idioms, these expressions are depicted in the realization of the work using media strategies and visual strategies by using the concept of form processing, namely deformation and transformation by combining several techniques, such as plaque, transparent, pseudo-texture and real texture. AsoGumbalo as an inspiration expressed in the form of paintings of symbolic expression. works created by artists are presented in the form of exhibitions.  Keywords:asogumbalo, symbolic expression, painting.  

Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Culture in Managerial Processes Based on the Hofstede Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-210
Author(s):  
Dumitru Iancu ◽  
Dorel Badea
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Cultural Characteristics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Organizational Problem ◽  
Cultural Structure

AbstractWe communicate and decide every day, but the complexity of the context in which we do these things is increasing. Today, the cultural structure of the organization’s members, due to the need to have competent employees in correlation with the established objectives, is somewhat puzzled and dynamical. Thus, the decision-makers must take into account (mandatory) the cultural basis of the subordinates when choosing the best alternative for solving an organizational problem. From this perspective, Hofstede’s model can be one of the explanatory modalities of the organization’s cultural characteristics as a basis to identify the action’s solutions in that organization for the future.

A Rapture of the Nerds? A Comparison between Transhumanist Eschatology and Christian Parousia

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 343-367
Author(s):  
Roberto Paura
Keyword(s):  
Human Brain ◽  
Point Theory ◽  
The Body ◽  
Christian Theology ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Human Species ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Universe

Transhumanism is one of the main “ideologies of the future” that has emerged in recent decades. Its program for the enhancement of the human species during this century pursues the ultimate goal of immortality, through the creation of human brain emulations. Therefore, transhumanism offers its fol- lowers an explicit eschatology, a vision of the ultimate future of our civilization that in some cases coincides with the ultimate future of the universe, as in Frank Tipler’s Omega Point theory. The essay aims to analyze the points of comparison and opposition between transhumanist and Christian eschatologies, in particular considering the “incarnationist” view of Parousia. After an introduction concern- ing the problems posed by new scientific and cosmological theories to traditional Christian eschatology, causing the debate between “incarnationists” and “escha- tologists,” the article analyzes the transhumanist idea of mind-uploading through the possibility of making emulations of the human brain and perfect simulations of the reality we live in. In the last section the problems raised by these theories are analyzed from the point of Christian theology, in particular the proposal of a transhuman species through the emulation of the body and mind of human beings. The possibility of a transhumanist eschatology in line with the incarnationist view of Parousia is refused.

scholarly journals Meaningful, but effective? A critical evaluation of Ireland’s citizens’ dialogues on the future of Europe

Politics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 026339572199148
Author(s):  
Anthony Costello
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Participatory Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Deliberative Process ◽  
Political Will ◽  
The Future

On the 25 March 2017, leaders of the EU27 and European Union (EU) institutions ratified the Rome Declaration. They committed to invite citizens to discuss Europe’s future and to provide recommendations that would facilitate their decision-makers in shaping their national positions on Europe. In response, citizens’ dialogues on the future of Europe were instituted across the Union to facilitate public participation in shaping Europe. This paper explores Ireland’s set of dialogues which took place during 2018. Although event organisers in Ireland applied a relatively atypical and more systematic and participatory approach to their dialogues, evidence suggests that Irelands’ dialogues were reminiscent of a public relations exercise which showcased the country’s commitment to incorporating citizens into the debate on Europe while avoiding a deliberative design which could have strengthened the quality of public discourse and the quality of public recommendations. Due to an absence of elite political will for a deliberative process, as well as structural weaknesses in design, participants’ recommendations lacked any clear and prescriptive direction which could shape Ireland’s national position on the future of Europe in any constructive or meaningful way.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the Victorian Salt Reduction Partnership’s advocacy strategy for policy change

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emalie Rosewarne ◽  
Michael Moore ◽  
Wai-Kwan Chislett ◽  
Alexandra Jones ◽  
Kathy Trieu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Health Advocacy ◽  
Salt Reduction ◽  
Public Health Advocacy ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Public health advocacy strategies facilitate policy change by bringing key health issues to the forefront of public and political discourse, influencing decision-makers and public opinion, and increasing policy demand. The Victorian Salt Reduction Partnership (VSRP) was established in 2014 in response to inadequate government action to improve population diets in Australia. This study aimed to evaluate the success of the VSRP’s advocacy strategy in achieving policy change. Methods Documentation of VSRP activities and outputs were collected, and semi-structured interviews conducted as part of a comprehensive process evaluation. For this study, the Kotter Plus 10-step public health advocacy evaluation framework was used to guide data extraction, analysis, and synthesis. Results A sense of urgency for salt reduction was generated by producing evidence and outlining the potential impact of a state-based salt reduction programme. This enabled the creation of a coalition with diverse skills and expertise, which facilitated the development of an innovative and collaborative advocacy action plan. A clear change vision was established, but communication of the vision to decision-makers was lacking, which reduced the impact of the programme as decision-makers were not provided with a clear incentive for policy change. As a result, while programme outputs were achieved, these did not translate to achieving broader strategic goals during a limited-term intervention in a political climate unconcerned with salt. Conclusions The Kotter Plus 10-step framework was a useful tool for evaluating the success of the VSRP advocacy strategy. The framework enabled the identification of key strengths, including the creation of the guiding coalition, and areas where efforts could be improved in future similar strategies, such as effective communication within partnerships and to decision-makers, to better influence policy and improve public health impact.

scholarly journals Elite attitudes and the future of global governance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Aart Scholte ◽  
Soetkin Verhaegen ◽  
Jonas Tallberg
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Global Institutions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Medium Level ◽  
Government Bureaucracy ◽  
Governance Institutions ◽  
Problem Solvers

Abstract This article examines what contemporary elites think about global governance and what these attitudes might bode for the future of global institutions. Evidence comes from a unique survey conducted in 2017–19 across six elite sectors (business, civil society, government bureaucracy, media, political parties, research) in six countries (Brazil, Germany, the Philippines, Russia, South Africa, the United States) and a global group. Bearing in mind some notable variation between countries, elite types, issue-areas and institutions, three main interconnected findings emerge. First, in principle, contemporary leaders in politics and society hold considerable readiness to pursue global-scale governance. Today's elites are not generally in a nationalist-protectionist-sovereigntist mood. Second, in practice, these elites on average hold medium-level confidence towards fourteen current global governance institutions. This evidence suggests that, while there is at present no legitimacy crisis of global governance among elites (as might encourage its decline), neither is there a legitimacy boom (as could spur its expansion). Third, if we probe what elites prioritize when they evaluate global governance, the surveyed leaders generally most underline democracy in the procedures of these bodies and effectiveness in their performance. This finding suggests that, to raise elites' future confidence in global governance, the institutions would do well to become more transparent in their operations and more impactful problem-solvers in their outcomes.

scholarly journals Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Raso ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Jos Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Adaptive Action ◽  
The Face

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. “On time” means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the “trigger-probability” mapping and the “trigger-consequences” mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.

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