Evaluation of the high‐probability instructional sequence to increase compliance with multiple low‐probability instructions among children with autism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ma Krishna Rosales ◽  
David A. Wilder ◽  
Melissa Montalvo ◽  
Benjamin Fagan
Keyword(s):  
High Probability ◽  
Children With Autism ◽  
Instructional Sequence ◽  
Low Probability

The Effect of Various High-Probability to Low-Probability Instruction Ratios During the Use of the High-Probability Instructional Sequence

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 639-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hallie Ertel ◽  
David A. Wilder ◽  
Ansley Hodges ◽  
LeAnn Hurtado
Keyword(s):  
Intellectual Disabilities ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Children With Autism ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Instructional Sequence ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Individuals With Intellectual Disabilities

The high-probability (high-p) instructional sequence, which involves the delivery of a series of high-p instructions immediately before delivery of a low-probability (low-p) instruction, is a commonly used procedure to increase compliance among children and individuals with intellectual disabilities. Although the modal ratio of high-p instructions to low-p instructions is 3:1, other ratios may be more effective. In the current study, we compared three ratios of high-p with low-p instructions (i.e., 1:1, 3:1, and 5:1) during use of the high-p instructional sequence to increase compliance among three children with autism. Results suggest that the high-p sequence was effective to increase compliance for two of three participants and that the 5:1 ratio was most effective overall, although differences among ratios were slight for some participants. Implications of these findings and directions for future research are discussed.

Failure to Replicate the Effects of the High-Probability Instructional Sequence on Feeding in Children With Autism and Food Selectivity

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 734-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryant C. Silbaugh ◽  
Samantha Swinnea
Keyword(s):  
Applied Behavior Analysis ◽  
Behavioral Intervention ◽  
Behavioral Interventions ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Children With Autism ◽  
Food Selectivity ◽  
Instructional Sequence ◽  
Feeding Problems ◽  
Experimental Control ◽  
Positive Effects

Behavioral intervention has positive effects on feeding problems of children with autism and food selectivity (FS), and researchers have evaluated a variety of specific behavioral interventions. Confidence in the effects of some specific interventions on feeding such as the high-probability instructional sequence (HPS) is limited by a lack of replication. Therefore, we assessed the generality of the HPS by replicating the intervention in children with autism and FS. Contrary to prior research, the HPS did not improve feeding responses for three consecutive children enrolled in the study. We discuss the results in relation to publishing failures to replicate without experimental control in applied behavior analysis research.

Spatial suppression due to statistical regularities is driven by distractor suppression not by target activation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Failing ◽  
Benchi Wang ◽  
Jan Theeuwes
Keyword(s):  
High Probability ◽  
Target Location ◽  
Target Selection ◽  
Visual Space ◽  
Alternative Interpretation ◽  
Distractor Location ◽  
Target Presentation ◽  
Statistical Regularities ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Presentation Experiment

Where and what we attend to is not only determined by what we are currently looking for but also by what we have encountered in the past. Recent studies suggest that biasing the probability by which distractors appear at locations in visual space may lead to attentional suppression of high probability distractor locations which effectively reduces capture by a distractor but also impairs target selection at this location. However, in many of these studies introducing a high probability distractor location was tantamount to increasing the probability of the target appearing in any of the other locations (i.e. the low probability distractor locations). Here, we investigate an alternative interpretation of previous findings according to which attentional selection at high probability distractor locations is not suppressed. Instead, selection at low probability distractor locations is facilitated. In two visual search tasks, we found no evidence for this hypothesis: neither when there was only a bias in target presentation but no bias in distractor presentation (Experiment 1), nor when there was only a bias in distractor presentation but no bias in target presentation (Experiment 2). We conclude that recurrent presentation of a distractor in a specific location leads to attentional suppression of that location through a mechanism that is unaffected by any regularities regarding the target location.

Validation of a machine learned model to predict the diagnosis of myocardial infarction

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Doudesis ◽  
J Yang ◽  
A Tsanas ◽  
C Stables ◽  
A Shah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Acute Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Cardiovascular Death ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
One Year

Abstract Introduction The myocardial-ischemic-injury-index (MI3) is a promising machine learned algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Whether this algorithm performs well in unselected patients or predicts recurrent events is unknown. Methods In an observational analysis from a multi-centre randomised trial, we included all patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurements without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Using gradient boosting, MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0–100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction, and estimates the negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV). Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction, and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at one year was determined using previously defined low- and high-probability thresholds (1.6 and 49.7, respectively). Results In total 20,761 of 48,282 (43%) patients (64±16 years, 46% women) were eligible of whom 3,278 (15.8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 was well discriminated with an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.949 (95% confidence interval 0.946–0.952) identifying 12,983 (62.5%) patients as low-probability (sensitivity 99.3% [99.0–99.6%], NPV 99.8% [99.8–99.9%]), and 2,961 (14.3%) as high-probability (specificity 95.0% [94.7–95.3%], PPV 70.4% [69–71.9%]). At one year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability compared to low-probability patients (17.6% [520/2,961] versus 1.5% [197/12,983], P<0.001). Conclusions In unselected consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimates the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicts probability of subsequent adverse cardiovascular events. Performance of MI3 at example thresholds Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council

scholarly journals Prediction of Patients with Acute Cholecystitis Requiring Emergent Cholecystectomy: A Simple Score

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wael N. Yacoub ◽  
Mikael Petrosyan ◽  
Indu Sehgal ◽  
Yanling Ma ◽  
Parakrama Chandrasoma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Acute Cholecystitis ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Acute Inflammation ◽  
Gallbladder Wall ◽  
Cutoff Score ◽  
Gangrenous Cholecystitis ◽  
Pathological Review ◽  
Low Probability

The objective was to develop a score, to stratify patients with acute cholecystitis into high, intermediate, or low probability of gangrenous cholecystitis. The probability of gangrenous cholecystitis (score) was derived from a logistic regression of a clinical and pathological review of 245 patients undergoing urgent cholecystectomy. Sixty-eight patients had gangrenous inflammation, 132 acute, and 45 no inflammation. The score comprised of: age > 45 years (1 point), heart rate > 90 beats/min (1 point), male (2 points), Leucocytosis > 13,000/mm3(1.5 points), and ultrasound gallbladder wall thickness>4.5 mm (1 point). The prevalence of gangrenous cholecystitis was 13% in the low-probability (0–2 points), 33% in the intermediate-probability (2–4.5 points), and 87% in the high probability category (>4.5 points). A cutoff score of 2 identified 31 (69%) patients with no acute inflammation (PPV 90%). This scoring system can prioritize patients for emergent cholecystectomy based on their expected pathology.

Frequency of enforcement is more important than the severity of punishment in reducing violation behaviors

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (42) ◽  
pp. e2108507118
Author(s):  
Kinneret Teodorescu ◽  
Ori Plonsky ◽  
Shahar Ayal ◽  
Rachel Barkan
Keyword(s):  
High Probability ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Decisions From Experience ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Violation Rate ◽  
Severity Of Punishment ◽  
Enforcement Policies

External enforcement policies aimed to reduce violations differ on two key components: the probability of inspection and the severity of the punishment. Different lines of research offer different insights regarding the relative importance of each component. In four studies, students and Prolific crowdsourcing participants (Ntotal = 816) repeatedly faced temptations to commit violations under two enforcement policies. Controlling for expected value, we found that a policy combining a high probability of inspection with a low severity of fines (HILS) was more effective than an economically equivalent policy that combined a low probability of inspection with a high severity of fines (LIHS). The advantage of prioritizing inspection frequency over punishment severity (HILS over LIHS) was greater for participants who, in the absence of enforcement, started out with a higher violation rate. Consistent with studies of decisions from experience, frequent enforcement with small fines was more effective than rare severe fines even when we announced the severity of the fine in advance to boost deterrence. In addition, in line with the phenomenon of underweighting of rare events, the effect was stronger when the probability of inspection was rarer (as in most real-life inspection probabilities) and was eliminated under moderate inspection probabilities. We thus recommend that policymakers looking to effectively reduce recurring violations among noncriminal populations should consider increasing inspection rates rather than punishment severity.

Portable Ventilation/Perfusion Scanning is Useful for Evaluating Clinically Significant Pulmonary Embolism in the ICU Despite Abnormal Chest Radiography

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (10) ◽  
pp. 1032-1038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron S. Weinberg ◽  
William Chang ◽  
Grace Ih ◽  
Alan Waxman ◽  
Victor F. Tapson
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Chest Radiograph ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Hemodynamic Instability ◽  
X Rays ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Abnormal Chest ◽  
Chest X Ray ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Clinically Significant

Objective: Computed tomography angiography is limited in the intensive care unit (ICU) due to renal insufficiency, hemodynamic instability, and difficulty transporting unstable patients. A portable ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) scan can be used. However, it is commonly believed that an abnormal chest radiograph can result in a nondiagnostic scan. In this retrospective study, we demonstrate that portable V/Q scans can be helpful in ruling in or out clinically significant pulmonary embolism (PE) despite an abnormal chest x-ray in the ICU. Design: Two physicians conducted chart reviews and original V/Q reports. A staff radiologist, with 40 years of experience, rated chest x-ray abnormalities using predetermined criteria. Setting: The study was conducted in the ICU. Patients: The first 100 consecutive patients with suspected PE who underwent a portable V/Q scan. Interventions: Those with a portable V/Q scan. Results: A normal baseline chest radiograph was found in only 6% of patients. Fifty-three percent had moderate, 24% had severe, and 10% had very-severe radiographic abnormalities. Despite the abnormal x-rays, 88% of the V/Q scans were low probability for a PE despite an average abnormal radiograph rating of moderate. A high-probability V/Q for PE was diagnosed in 3% of the population despite chest x-ray ratings of moderate to severe. Six patients had their empiric anticoagulation discontinued after obtaining the results of the V/Q scan, and no anticoagulation was started for PE after a low-probability V/Q scan. Conclusion: Despite the large percentage of moderate-to-severe x-ray abnormalities, PE can still be diagnosed (high-probability scan) in the ICU with a portable V/Q scan. Although low-probability scans do not rule out acute PE, it appeared less likely that any patient with a low-probability V/Q scan had severe hypoxemia or hemodynamic instability due to a significant PE, which was useful to clinicians and allowed them to either stop or not start anticoagulation.

scholarly journals Analysis of the disc components of our galaxy via kinematic and spectroscopic procedures

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Karaali ◽  
S. Bilir ◽  
E. Yaz Gökçe ◽  
O. Plevne
Keyword(s):  
High Probability ◽  
Space Velocity ◽  
Total Space ◽  
Apparent Magnitude ◽  
Galactic Latitude ◽  
Thick Disc ◽  
Thin Disc ◽  
Different Populations ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
The Rich

Abstract We used the spectroscopic and astrometric data provided from the GALactic Archaeology with HERMES (GALAH) Data Release (DR2) and Gaia DR2, respectively, for a large sample of stars to investigate the behaviour of the [ $\alpha$ /Fe] abundances via two procedures, that is, kinematically and spectroscopically. With the kinematical procedure, we investigated the distribution of the [ $\alpha$ /Fe] abundances into the high-/low-probability thin disc, and high-/low-probability thick-disc populations in terms of total space velocity, [Fe/H] abundance, and age. The high-probability thin-disc stars dominate in all sub-intervals of [ $\alpha$ /Fe], including the rich ones: [ $\alpha$ /Fe] $\,>\,0.3$ dex, where the high-probability thick-disc stars are expected to dominate. This result can be explained by the limiting apparent magnitude of the GALAH DR2 ( $V \lt 14$ mag) and intermediate galactic latitude of the star sample. Stars in the four populations share equivalent [ $\alpha$ /Fe] and [Fe/H] abundances, total space velocities, and ages. Hence, none of these parameters can be used alone for separation of a sample of stars into different populations. High-probability thin-disc stars with abundance $-1.3 \lt {\rm[Fe/H]}\leq -0.5$ dex and age $9 \lt \tau\leq13$ Gyr are assumed to have different birth places relative to the metal-rich and younger ones. With the spectroscopic procedure, we separated the sample stars into $\alpha$ -rich and $\alpha$ -poor categories by means of their ages as well as their [ $\alpha$ /Fe] and [Fe/H] abundances. Stars older than 8 Gyr are richer in [ $\alpha$ /Fe] than the younger ones. We could estimate the abundance [ $\alpha$ /Fe] = 0.14 dex as the boundary separating the $\alpha$ -rich and $\alpha$ -poor sub-samples in the [ $\alpha$ /Fe] $\,\times\,$ [Fe/H] plane.

REACTIONS TO VICTIMS OF CRIME: SYMPATHY, DEFENSIVE ATTRIBUTION, AND THE JUST WORLD

1977 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Ross Gold ◽  
Pamela G. Landerman ◽  
Kathryn Wold Bullock
Keyword(s):  
College Students ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Female College Students ◽  
Reaction Pattern ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Just World ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Female College ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Victims Of Crime

Two studies were conducted that explored observers' perceptions of the responsibility of a victim for her involvement in a premeditated crime. Male and female college students listened to tapes of a purported victim describing a crime (either a rape or a mugging). Severity of crime was manipulated by having some of the crimes described as unsuccessful attempts and others as successful ones. There was a general tendency toward what we have called a sympathetic reaction pattern, that is, for victims to be assigned less responsibility the more severe the crime. This effect was strongest among those individuals who believed they had a low probability of encountering a fate similar to that of the victim. Those individuals who believed they had a high probability of encountering a fate similar to the victim's tended to make defensive attributions.

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