Near future changes of extreme precipitation over complex terrain in Central Europe derived from high resolution RCM ensemble simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 1964-1977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendrik Feldmann ◽  
Gerd Schädler ◽  
Hans-Jürgen Panitz ◽  
Christoph Kottmeier
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Near Future

scholarly journals Comparison and Evaluation of Statistical Rainfall Disaggregation and High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling over Complex Terrain

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 1973-1982 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Poschlod ◽  
Ø. Hodnebrog ◽  
R. R. Wood ◽  
K. Alterskjær ◽  
R. Ludwig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Method Of Fragments ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Wet Spells

Abstract Representative methods of statistical disaggregation and dynamical downscaling are compared in terms of their ability to disaggregate precipitation data into hourly resolution in an urban area with complex terrain. The nonparametric statistical Method of Fragments (MoF) uses hourly data from rain gauges to split the daily data at the location of interest into hourly fragments. The high-resolution, convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model is driven by reanalysis data. The MoF can reconstruct the variance, dry proportion, wet hours per month, number and length of wet spells per rainy day, timing of the maximum rainfall burst, and intensities of extreme precipitation with errors of less than 10%. However, the MoF cannot capture the spatial coherence and temporal interday connectivity of precipitation events due to the random elements involved in the algorithm. Otherwise, the statistical method is well suited for filling gaps in subdaily historical records. The WRF Model is able to reproduce dry proportion, lag-1 autocorrelation, wet hours per month, number and length of wet spells per rainy day, spatial correlation, and 6- and 12-h intensities of extreme precipitation with errors of 10% or less. The WRF approach tends to underestimate peak rainfall of 1- and 3-h aggregates but can be used where no observations are available or when areal precipitation data are needed.

Evaluation of a spatial rainfall generator for generating high resolution precipitation projections over orographically complex terrain

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corrado Camera ◽  
Adriana Bruggeman ◽  
Panos Hadjinicolaou ◽  
Silas Michaelides ◽  
Manfred A. Lange
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Precipitation Projections

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

Cryogenic high-resolution X-ray spectrometers for SR-XRF and microanalysis

1998 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Frank ◽  
C. A. Mears ◽  
S. E. Labov ◽  
L. J. Hiller ◽  
J. B. le Grand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Energy Resolution ◽  
Superconducting Tunnel Junction ◽  
Semiconductor Detectors ◽  
X Rays ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Sr Xrf ◽  
Demonstration Experiment ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Stj Detector

Experimental results are presented obtained with a cryogenically cooled high-resolution X-ray spectrometer based on a 141 × 141 µm Nb-Al-Al2O3-Al-Nb superconducting tunnel junction (STJ) detector in an SR-XRF demonstration experiment. STJ detectors can operate at count rates approaching those of semiconductor detectors while still providing a significantly better energy resolution for soft X-rays. By measuring fluorescence X-rays from samples containing transition metals and low-Z elements, an FWHM energy resolution of 6–15 eV for X-rays in the energy range 180–1100 eV has been obtained. The results show that, in the near future, STJ detectors may prove very useful in XRF and microanalysis applications.

Freshwater Ostracods in Holocene Cycle

1972 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adolf Absolon
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Freshwater Ostracods

The present assemblages of Ostracods in Central Europe resemble the assemblages known from the earliest phases of Holocene. This observation supports the view that the termination of the present warm interval is to be expected in the near future.

scholarly journals High-resolution analysis of 1 day extreme precipitation in Sicily

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2347-2358 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Maugeri ◽  
M. Brunetti ◽  
M. Garzoglio ◽  
C. Simolo
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Regional Frequency Analysis ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Data Set ◽  
High Quantiles

Abstract. Sicily, a major Mediterranean island, has experienced several exceptional precipitation episodes and floods during the last century, with serious damage to human life and the environment. Long-term, rational planning of urban development is indispensable to protect the population and to avoid huge economic losses in the future. This requires a thorough knowledge of the distributional features of extreme precipitation over the complex territory of Sicily. In this study, we perform a detailed investigation of observed 1 day precipitation extremes and their frequency distribution, based on a dense data set of high-quality, homogenized station records in 1921–2005. We estimate very high quantiles (return levels) corresponding to 10-, 50- and 100-year return periods, as predicted by a generalized extreme value distribution. Return level estimates are produced on a regular high-resolution grid (30 arcsec) using a variant of regional frequency analysis combined with regression techniques. Results clearly reflect the complexity of this region, and show the high vulnerability of its eastern and northeastern parts as those prone to the most intense and potentially damaging events.

Wind power forecasting for a real onshore wind farm on complex terrain using WRF high resolution simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 135 ◽  
pp. 674-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Prósper ◽  
Carlos Otero-Casal ◽  
Felipe Canoura Fernández ◽  
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Onshore Wind ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Power Forecasting

Evaluation of Surface Analyses and Forecasts with a Multiscale Ensemble Kalman Filter in Regions of Complex Terrain

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (6) ◽  
pp. 2008-2024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. Ancell ◽  
Clifford F. Mass ◽  
Gregory J. Hakim
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Background Error

Abstract Previous research suggests that an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation and modeling system can produce accurate atmospheric analyses and forecasts at 30–50-km grid spacing. This study examines the ability of a mesoscale EnKF system using multiscale (36/12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to produce high-resolution, accurate, regional surface analyses, and 6-h forecasts. This study takes place over the complex terrain of the Pacific Northwest, where the small-scale features of the near-surface flow field make the region particularly attractive for testing an EnKF and its flow-dependent background error covariances. A variety of EnKF experiments are performed over a 5-week period to test the impact of decreasing the grid spacing from 36 to 12 km and to evaluate new approaches for dealing with representativeness error, lack of surface background variance, and low-level bias. All verification in this study is performed with independent, unassimilated observations. Significant surface analysis and 6-h forecast improvements are found when EnKF grid spacing is reduced from 36 to 12 km. Forecast improvements appear to be a consequence of increased resolution during model integration, whereas analysis improvements also benefit from high-resolution ensemble covariances during data assimilation. On the 12-km domain, additional analysis improvements are found by reducing observation error variance in order to address representativeness error. Removing model surface biases prior to assimilation significantly enhances the analysis. Inflating surface wind and temperature background error variance has large impacts on analyses, but only produces small improvements in analysis RMS errors. Both surface and upper-air 6-h forecasts are nearly unchanged in the 12-km experiments. Last, 12-km WRF EnKF surface analyses and 6-h forecasts are shown to generally outperform those of the Global Forecast System (GFS), North American Model (NAM), and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) by about 10%–30%, although these improvements do not extend above the surface. Based on these results, future improvements in multiscale EnKF are suggested.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document