An improved model‐based analogue forecasting for the prediction of the tropical Indo‐Pacific Sea surface temperature in a coupled climate model

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (15) ◽  
pp. 6346-6360
Author(s):  
Yanfeng Wang ◽  
Zhihua Zhang ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Improved Model

scholarly journals CMIP6 model-based analog forecasting for the seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature in the offshore area of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiying Peng ◽  
Quanliang Chen ◽  
Shijie Zhou ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Initial Field ◽  
Offshore Area ◽  
Model Based

AbstractSeasonal forecasts at lead times of 1–12 months for sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTAs) in the offshore area of China are a considerable challenge for climate prediction in China. Previous research suggests that a model-based analog forecasting (MAF) method based on the simulations of coupled global climate models provide skillful climate forecasts of tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs. This MAF method selects the model-simulated cases close to the observed initial state as a model-analog ensemble, and then uses the subsequent evolution of the SSTA to generate the forecasts. In this study, the MAF method is applied to the offshore area of China (0°–45°N, 105°–135°E) based on the simulations of 23 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the period 1981–2010. By optimizing the key factors in the MAF method, we suggest that the optimal initial field for the analog criteria should be concentrated in the western North Pacific. The multi-model ensemble of the optimized MAF prediction using these 23 CMIP6 models shows anomaly correlation coefficients exceeding 0.6 at the 3-month lead time, which is much improved relative to previous SST-initialized hindcasts and appears practical for operational forecasting.

Oligocene sea-surface temperature gradients in the Southern Ocean related to Tasmanian Gateway widening: New TEX86 paleothermometry, dinoflagellate cyst data and climate model comparisons

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frida Hoem ◽  
Suning Hou ◽  
Matthew Huber ◽  
Francesca Sangiorgi ◽  
Henk Brinkhuis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Gradients ◽  
Ocean Currents ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dinoflagellate Cyst ◽  
Frontal Systems ◽  
Dsdp Site

<p>The opening of the Tasmanian Gateway during the Eocene and further deepening in the Oligocene is hypothesized to have reorganized ocean currents, preconditioning the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) to evolve into place. However, fundamental questions still remain on the past Southern Ocean structure. We here present reconstructions of latitudinal temperature gradients and the position of ocean frontal systems in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean during the Oligocene. We generated new sea surface temperature (SST) and dinoflagellate cyst data from the West Tasman margin, ODP Site 1168. We compare these with other records around the Tasmanian Gateway, and with climate model simulations to analyze the paleoceanographic evolution during the Oligocene. The novel organic biomarker TEX<sub>86</sub>- SSTs from ODP Site 1168, range between 19.6 – 27.9°C (± 5.2°C, using the linear calibration by Kim et al., 2010), supported by temperate and open ocean dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. The data compilation, including existing TEX<sub>86</sub>-based SSTs from ODP Site 1172 in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, DSDP Site 274 offshore Cape Adare, DSDP Site 269 and IODP Site U1356 offshore the Wilkes Land Margin and terrestrial temperature proxy records from the Cape Roberts Project (CRP) on the Ross Sea continental shelf, show synchronous variability in temperature evolution between Antarctic and Australian sectors of the Southern Ocean. The SST gradients are around 10°C latitudinally across the Tasmanian Gateway throughout the early Oligocene, and increasing in the Late Oligocene. This increase can be explained by polar amplification/cooling, tectonic drift, strengthening of atmospheric currents and ocean currents. We suggest that the progressive cooling of Antarctica and the absence of mid-latitude cooling strengthened the westerly winds, which in turn could drive an intensification of the ACC and strengthening of Southern Ocean frontal systems.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of climate model sea surface temperature biases on tropical cyclone simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 173-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Ching Hsu ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
Ping Chang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Impact

Ozone and temperature response of a chemistry climate model to the solar cycle and sea surface temperature

2010 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yousuke Yamashita ◽  
Kei Sakamoto ◽  
Hideharu Akiyoshi ◽  
Masaaki Takahashi ◽  
Tatsuya Nagashima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Sea Surface

scholarly journals The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1519-1538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Dowsett ◽  
Aisling Dolan ◽  
David Rowley ◽  
Robert Moucha ◽  
Alessandro M. Forte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction ◽  
Dynamic Topography ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The mid-Piacenzian is known as a period of relative warmth when compared to the present day. A comprehensive understanding of conditions during the Piacenzian serves as both a conceptual model and a source for boundary conditions as well as means of verification of global climate model experiments. In this paper we present the PRISM4 reconstruction, a paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the mid-Piacenzian ( ∼  3 Ma) containing data for paleogeography, land and sea ice, sea-surface temperature, vegetation, soils, and lakes. Our retrodicted paleogeography takes into account glacial isostatic adjustments and changes in dynamic topography. Soils and lakes, both significant as land surface features, are introduced to the PRISM reconstruction for the first time. Sea-surface temperature and vegetation reconstructions are unchanged but now have confidence assessments. The PRISM4 reconstruction is being used as boundary condition data for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) experiments.

scholarly journals Seasonal ENSO phase locking in the Kiel Climate Model: The importance of the equatorial cold sea surface temperature bias

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 901-919 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Wengel ◽  
M. Latif ◽  
W. Park ◽  
J. Harlaß ◽  
T. Bayr
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Phase Locking ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Temperature Bias
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