The effect of vertical shear orientation on tropical cyclogenesis

Abstract. Recent efforts to understand tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the southwest Pacific (SWP) have led to the development of numerous TC databases. The methods used to compile each database vary and are based on data from different meteorological centres, standalone TC databases and archived synoptic charts. Therefore the aims of this study are to (i) provide a spatio-temporal comparison of three TC best-track (BT) databases and explore any differences between them (and any associated implications) and (ii) investigate whether there are any spatial, temporal or statistical differences between pre-satellite (1945–1969), post-satellite (1970–2011) and post-geostationary satellite (1982–2011) era TC data given the changing observational technologies with time. To achieve this, we compare three best-track TC databases for the SWP region (0–35° S, 135° E–120° W) from 1945 to 2011: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). The results of this study suggest that SPEArTC is the most complete repository of TCs for the SWP region. In particular, we show that the SPEArTC database includes a number of additional TCs, not included in either the JTWC or IBTrACS database. These SPEArTC events do occur under environmental conditions conducive to tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis), including anomalously negative 700 hPa vorticity (VORT), anomalously negative vertical shear of zonal winds (VSZW), anomalously negative 700 hPa geopotential height (GPH), cyclonic (absolute) 700 hPa winds and low values of absolute vertical wind shear (EVWS). Further, while changes in observational technologies from 1945 have undoubtedly improved our ability to detect and monitor TCs, we show that the number of TCs detected prior to the satellite era (1945–1969) are not statistically different to those in the post-satellite era (post-1970). Although data from pre-satellite and pre-geostationary satellite periods are currently inadequate for investigating TC intensity, this study suggests that SPEArTC data (from 1945) may be used to investigate long-term variability of TC counts and TC genesis locations.

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Seasonal and Intraseasonal Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis Environment over the Bay of Bengal during the Extended Summer Monsoon

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00208.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 25 (8) ◽

pp. 2914-2930 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

Wataru Yanase ◽

Masaki Satoh ◽

Hiroshi Taniguchi ◽

Hatsuki Fujinami

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Summer Monsoon ◽

Bay Of Bengal ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Boreal Summer ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Composite Analysis ◽

Absolute Vorticity

Abstract The environmental field of tropical cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal is analyzed for the extended summer monsoon season (approximately May–November) using best-track and reanalysis data. Genesis potential index (GPI) is used to assess four possible environmental factors responsible for tropical cyclogenesis: lower-tropospheric absolute vorticity, vertical shear, potential intensity, and midtropospheric relative humidity. The climatological cyclogenesis is active within high GPI in the premonsoon (~May) and postmonsoon seasons (approximately October–November), which is attributed to weak vertical shear. The genesis of intense tropical cyclone is suppressed within the low GPI in the mature monsoon (approximately June–September), which is due to the strong vertical shear. In addition to the climatological seasonal transition, the authors’ composite analysis based on tropical cyclogenesis identified a high GPI signal moving northward with a periodicity of approximately 30–40 days, which is associated with boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). In a composite analysis based on the BSISO phase, the active cyclogenesis occurs in the high GPI phase of BSISO. It is revealed that the high GPI of BSISO is attributed to high relative humidity and large absolute vorticity. Furthermore, in the mature monsoon season, when the vertical shear is climatologically strong, tropical cyclogenesis particularly favors the phase of BSISO that reduces vertical shear effectively. Thus, the combination of seasonal and intraseasonal effects is important for the tropical cyclogenesis, rather than the independent effects.

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Genesis of Tropical Storm Eugene (2005) from Merging Vortices Associated with ITCZ Breakdowns. Part II: Roles of Vortex Merger and Ambient Potential Vorticity

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/2008jas2905.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 66 (7) ◽

pp. 1980-1996 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Chanh Q. Kieu ◽

Da-Lin Zhang

Keyword(s):

Potential Vorticity ◽

Tropical Storm ◽

Heat Fluxes ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Small Scale ◽

Absolute Vorticity ◽

Surface Heat Fluxes ◽

Vortex Merger ◽

Bottom Upward

Abstract In this study, the roles of merging midlevel mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) and convectively generated potential vorticity (PV) patches embedded in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in determining tropical cyclogenesis are examined by calculating PV and absolute vorticity budgets with a cloud-resolving simulation of Tropical Storm Eugene (2005). Results show that the vortex merger occurs as the gradual capture of small-scale PV patches within a slow-drifting MCV by another fast-moving MCV, thus concentrating high PV near the merger’s circulation center, with its peak amplitude located slightly above the melting level. The merging phase is characterized by sharp increases in surface heat fluxes, low-level convergence, latent heat release (and upward motion), lower tropospheric PV, surface pressure falls, and growth of cyclonic vorticity from the bottom upward. Melting and freezing appear to affect markedly the vertical structures of diabatic heating, convergence, absolute vorticity, and PV, as well the production of PV during the life cycle of Eugene. Results also show significant contributions of the horizontal vorticity to the magnitude of PV and its production within the storm. The storm-scale PV budgets show that the above-mentioned amplification of PV results partly from the net internal dynamical forcing between the PV condensing and diabatic production and partly from the continuous lateral PV fluxes from the ITCZ. Without the latter, Eugene would likely be shorter lived after the merger under the influence of intense vertical shear and colder sea surface temperatures. The vorticity budget reveals that the storm-scale rotational growth occurs in the deep troposphere as a result of the increased flux convergence of absolute vorticity during the merging phase. Unlike the previously hypothesized downward growth associated with merging MCVs, the most rapid growth rate is found in the bottom layers of the merger because of the frictional convergence. It is concluded that tropical cyclogenesis from merging MCVs occurs from the bottom upward.

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A Poisson Regression Index for Tropical Cyclone Genesis and the Role of Large-Scale Vorticity in Genesis

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3811.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (9) ◽

pp. 2335-2357 ◽

Cited By ~ 127

Author(s):

Michael K. Tippett ◽

Suzana J. Camargo ◽

Adam H. Sobel

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Poisson Regression ◽

Large Scale ◽

Functional Dependence ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽

Climate Variables ◽

Absolute Vorticity ◽

Low Level

Abstract A Poisson regression between the observed climatology of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) and large-scale climate variables is used to construct a TCG index. The regression methodology is objective and provides a framework for the selection of the climate variables in the index. Broadly following earlier work, four climate variables appear in the index: low-level absolute vorticity, relative humidity, relative sea surface temperature (SST), and vertical shear. Several variants in the choice of predictors are explored, including relative SST versus potential intensity and satellite-based column-integrated relative humidity versus reanalysis relative humidity at a single level; these choices lead to modest differences in the performance of the index. The feature of the new index that leads to the greatest improvement is a functional dependence on low-level absolute vorticity that causes the index response to absolute vorticity to saturate when absolute vorticity exceeds a threshold. This feature reduces some biases of the index and improves the fidelity of its spatial distribution. Physically, this result suggests that once low-level environmental vorticity reaches a sufficiently large value, other factors become rate limiting so that further increases in vorticity (at least on a monthly mean basis) do not increase the probability of genesis. Although the index is fit to climatological data, it reproduces some aspects of interannual variability when applied to interannually varying data. Overall, the new index compares positively to the genesis potential index (GPI), whose derivation, computation, and analysis is more complex in part because of its dependence on potential intensity.

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Moist multi-scale models for the hurricane embryo

Journal of Fluid Mechanics ◽

10.1017/s0022112010001515 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 657 ◽

pp. 478-501 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

ANDREW J. MAJDA ◽

YULONG XING ◽

MAJID MOHAMMADIAN

Keyword(s):

Applied Mathematics ◽

Deep Convection ◽

Asymptotic Methods ◽

Finite Amplitude ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Heat Sources ◽

Multi Scale ◽

Scale Models ◽

Anelastic Equations

Determining the finite-amplitude preconditioned states in the hurricane embryo, which lead to tropical cyclogenesis, is a central issue in contemporary meteorology. In the embryo there is competition between different preconditioning mechanisms involving hydrodynamics and moist thermodynamics, which can lead to cyclogenesis. Here systematic asymptotic methods from applied mathematics are utilized to develop new simplified moist multi-scale models starting from the moist anelastic equations. Three interesting multi-scale models emerge in the analysis. The balanced mesoscale vortex (BMV) dynamics and the microscale balanced hot tower (BHT) dynamics involve simplified balanced equations without gravity waves for vertical vorticity amplification due to moist heat sources and incorporate nonlinear advective fluxes across scales. The BMV model is the central one for tropical cyclogenesis in the embryo. The moist mesoscale wave (MMW) dynamics involves simplified equations for mesoscale moisture fluctuations, as well as linear hydrostatic waves driven by heat sources from moisture and eddy flux divergences. A simplified cloud physics model for deep convection is introduced here and used to study moist axisymmetric plumes in the BHT model. A simple application in periodic geometry involving the effects of mesoscale vertical shear and moist microscale hot towers on vortex amplification is developed here to illustrate features of the coupled multi-scale models. These results illustrate the use of these models in isolating key mechanisms in the embryo in a simplified content.

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Tropical cyclogenesis and vertical shear in a moist Boussinesq model

Journal of Fluid Mechanics ◽

10.1017/jfm.2012.260 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 706 ◽

pp. 384-412 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Qiang Deng ◽

Leslie Smith ◽

Andrew Majda

Keyword(s):

Numerical Simulations ◽

Water Vapour ◽

Cloud Microphysics ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Structure Characteristic ◽

Boussinesq Model ◽

Vertical Vorticity ◽

Low Level ◽

Low Altitude

AbstractTropical cyclogenesis is studied in the context of idealized three-dimensional Boussinesq dynamics with perhaps the simplest possible model for bulk cloud physics. With low-altitude input of water vapour on realistic length and time scales, numerical simulations capture the formation of vortical hot towers. From measurements of water vapour, vertical velocity, vertical vorticity and rain, it is demonstrated that the structure, strength and lifetime of the hot towers are similar to results from models including more detailed cloud microphysics. The effects of low-altitude vertical shear are investigated by varying the initial zonal velocity profile. In the presence of weak low-level vertical shear, the hot towers retain the low-altitude monopole cyclonic structure characteristic of the zero-shear case (starting from zero velocity). Some initial velocity profiles with small vertical shear can have the effect of increasing cyclonic predominance of individual hot towers in a statistical sense, as measured by the skewness of vertical vorticity. Convergence of horizontal winds in the atmospheric boundary layer is mimicked by increasing the frequency of the moisture forcing in a horizontal subdomain. When the moisture forcing is turned off, and again for zero shear or weak low-level shear, merger of cyclonic activity results in the formation of a larger-scale cyclonic vortex. An effect of the shear is to limit the vertical extent of the resulting emergent moist vortex. For stronger low-altitude vertical shear, the individual hot towers have a low-altitude vorticity dipole rather than a cyclonic monopole. The dipoles are not conducive to the formation of larger-scale vortices, and thus sufficiently strong low-level shear prevents the vortical-hot-tower route to cyclogenesis. The results indicate that the simplest condensation and evaporation schemes are useful for exploratory numerical simulations aimed at better understanding of competing effects such as low-level moisture and vertical shear.

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Reevaluating the Role of the Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/2009mwr3135.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 138 (6) ◽

pp. 2007-2037 ◽

Cited By ~ 71

Author(s):

Scott A. Braun

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Wind Shear ◽

Large Scale ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Negative Influence ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Saharan Air Layer ◽

The Individual

Abstract The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air frequently present over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. The nature of its impacts on hurricanes remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability at the base of the SAL; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts. Multiple NASA satellite datasets and NCEP global analyses are used to characterize the SAL’s properties and evolution in relation to tropical cyclones and to evaluate these potential negative influences. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence. Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance the dryness at low levels (primarily below ∼700 hPa), but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid- to-upper-level dryness is not generally a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead often a signature of subsidence. The results further show that storms generally form on the southern side of the jet, where the background cyclonic vorticity is high. Based upon its depiction in NCEP Global Forecast System meteorological analyses, the jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is present to equal extents for both strengthening and weakening storms, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear may not be a frequent negative influence. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. Composite analyses of the early stages of tropical cyclones occurring in association with the SAL support the inferences from the individual cases noted above. Furthermore, separate composites for strongly strengthening and for weakening storms show few substantial differences in the SAL characteristics between these two groups, suggesting that the SAL is not a determinant of whether a storm will intensify or weaken in the days after formation. Key differences between these cases are found mainly at upper levels where the flow over strengthening storms allows for an expansive outflow and produces little vertical shear, while for weakening storms, the shear is stronger and the outflow is significantly constrained.

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The Role of Tropical Waves in Tropical Cyclogenesis

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr3204.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 134 (9) ◽

pp. 2397-2417 ◽

Cited By ~ 218

Author(s):

William M. Frank ◽

Paul E. Roundy

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Phase Relationship ◽

Vertical Motion ◽

Longwave Radiation ◽

Wave Activity ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Tropical Wave ◽

The Waves

Abstract This paper analyzes relationships between tropical wave activity and tropical cyclogenesis in all of the earth’s major tropical cyclone basins. Twenty-nine years of outgoing longwave radiation data and global reanalysis winds are filtered and analyzed to determine statistical relationships between wave activity in each basin and the corresponding cyclogenesis. Composite analyses relative to the storm genesis locations show the structures of the waves and their preferred phase relationships with genesis. Five wave types are examined in this study, including mixed Rossby–gravity waves, tropical-depression-type or easterly waves, equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and the Madden–Julian oscillation. The latter is not one of the classical tropical wave types, but is a wavelike phenomenon known to have a strong impact on tropical cyclogenesis. Tropical cyclone formation is strongly related to enhanced activity in all of the wave filter bands except for the Kelvin band. In each basin the structure of each composite wave and the phase relationship between the wave and cyclogenesis are similar, suggesting consistent forcing mechanisms. The waves appear to enhance the local circulations by increasing the forced upward vertical motion, increasing the low-level vorticity at the genesis location, and by modulating the vertical shear. Convective anomalies of waves associated with genesis are detectable in the analyses as long as 1 month prior to genesis. This opens up the possibility of developing statistically based genesis forecasts.

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Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Premonsoon Climatological Dryline over the Bay of Bengal

10.21203/rs.3.rs-427289/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Nasreen Akter

Keyword(s):

Bay Of Bengal ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Leading Edge ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Rear Side ◽

Convective System ◽

Atmospheric Conditions ◽

Low Level ◽

Stratiform Region

Abstract Tropical cyclones of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) that formed near the synoptic-scale dryline usually intensified over a short distance (~600-800 km) within 3 days and caused severe destruction after landfall. High-resolution simulations of very severe cyclonic storms in association with dryline indicate that the meridional shear aids in the development of a group of linear convective cells that mature as an east-west oriented quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) within the boundary between the dry-moist air masses. The leading edge deep convections are supported by low-level moist southwesterly inflow; however, the typical mid-level mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) associated with these QLCS is unremarkable due to a very narrow trailing stratiform region within the QLCS. Supercells are likely to be organized within the QLCS due to extremely unstable atmospheric conditions resulting from a strong vertical shear of 27-39 m s−1 between 0-6 km and large convective available potential energy of >3000 J kg−1. The vertical shear veering with height causes several numbers of low-level mesovortices having diameters less than 10 km at the leading edge in the different convective stages of the QLCS. The dryline aloft in the BoB produces horizontal positive shear vorticity of the order 10–5 s−1 with higher values in the levels 850-600 hPa. The advection of intense cloud-scale cyclonic vortices (~10–3 s−1) assists and enhances a cyclonic vortex to the rear side of the QLCS that performs as an MCV for cyclogenesis over the BoB.

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Genesis of Tropical Storm Eugene (2005) from Merging Vortices Associated with ITCZ Breakdowns. Part I: Observational and Modeling Analyses

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/2008jas2605.1 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 65 (11) ◽

pp. 3419-3439 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Chanh Q. Kieu ◽

Da-Lin Zhang

Keyword(s):

Exchange Process ◽

Potential Temperature ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Lower Troposphere ◽

Tropical Storm ◽

Eastern Pacific ◽

Vertical Shear ◽

Dynamical Instability ◽

Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽

Environmental Prediction

Abstract Although tropical cyclogenesis occurs over all tropical warm ocean basins, the eastern Pacific appears to have the highest frequency of tropical cyclogenesis events per unit area. In this study, tropical cyclogenesis from merging mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) associated with breakdowns of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is examined. This is achieved through a case study of the processes leading to the genesis of Tropical Storm Eugene (2005) over the eastern Pacific using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis, satellite data, and 4-day multinested cloud-resolving simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model at the finest grid size of 1.33 km. Observational analyses reveal the initiations of two MCVs on the eastern ends of the ITCZ breakdowns that occurred more than 2 days and 1000 km apart. The WRF model reproduces their different movements, intensity and size changes, and vortex–vortex interaction at nearly the right timing and location at 39 h into the integration as well as the subsequent track and intensity of the merger in association with the poleward rollup of the ITCZ. Model results show that the two MCVs are merged in a coalescence and capture mode due to their different larger-scale steering flows and sizes. As the two MCVs are being merged, the low- to midlevel potential vorticity and tangential flows increase substantially; the latter occurs more rapidly in the lower troposphere, helping initiate the wind-induced surface heat exchange process leading to the genesis of Eugene with a diameter of 400 km. Subsequently, the merger moves poleward with characters of both MCVs. The simulated tropical storm exhibits many features that are similar to a hurricane, including the warm-cored “eye” and the rotating “eyewall.” It is also shown that vertical shear associated with a midlevel easterly jet leads to the downshear tilt and the wavenumber-1 rainfall structures during the genesis stage, and the upshear generation of moist downdrafts in the vicinity of the eyewall in the minimum equivalent potential temperature layer. Based on the above results, it is concluded that the ITCZ provides a favorable environment with dynamical instability, high humidity, and background vorticity, but it is the merger of the two MCVs that is critical for the genesis of Eugene. The storm decays as it moves northwestward into an environment with increasing vertical shear, dry intrusion, and colder sea surface temperatures. The results appear to have important implications for the high frequency of development of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific.

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