Model Building and Decision-Making

1992 ◽  
pp. 101-118
Author(s):  
John J. Glen
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.27) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Mohd Faizal Bin Omar ◽  
Bambang Trigunarsyah ◽  
Johnny Wong

Consultant Selection is one of a classical problem in Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). Most of the literature in Operation Research only concentrates on model building rather than developing an inclusive analytic tool that extends to a Decision Support System (DSS). In this paper, we deploy a case study approach to understand the user requirement for DSS development. We observe the process of consultant selection and the decision making at one of the technical department which involve in the infrastructure project in Malaysia. A two-envelope system and a simple Weighted Sum Model are currently in use. We demonstrate the abstraction and application based on two case projects. Sensitivity analysis is also performed and the result shows that the decision changed if it is solely based on fees or with minimal quality criteria.  Finally, we gather the findings from the organizational flows, user modelling and decision making process in order to benchmark with our future works. This will helps us to better understand and develop an improved decision support model or tools for consultant selection problem. 


1991 ◽  
Vol 113 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C.-Y. Lu ◽  
D. K. Tcheng

This paper presents a new model building methodology which, given a detailed mechanistic model of a task, can optimally produce a set of models with layered abstraction according to the user’s specified modeling objectives. These layered models can be used to evaluate decisions made at different levels of abstraction during a typical problem-solving process such as engineering design and planning. In our research, the model building process is viewed as a learning activity and inductive machine learning techniques from AI are combined with traditional optimization methods to form our prototype model building system called AIMS (Adaptive and Interactive Modeling System). The layered analysis models built by AIMS offer several distinctive advantages over those traditional analysis models which can only provide evaluations at very detailed stages of decision making. These advantages include: early evaluation to avoid costly iterations, fast execution for interactive applications, more comprehensibility for human inspection, and deep roots in domain physics for higher accuracy. Case study results of building layered models for a process design task of an intermittent cutting process are presented as a demonstration of the potential use of our system. We also explain this model building research in the context of the knowledge processing technology as a new foundation for advanced engineering automation.


1984 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles B. Weinberg ◽  
Gary L. Lilien ◽  
Philip Kotler

Geophysics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-71
Author(s):  
Jérémie Messud ◽  
Patrice Guillaume ◽  
Gilles Lambaré

Evaluating structural uncertainties associated with seismic imaging and target horizonscan be of critical importance for decision-making related to oil and gas exploration andproduction. An important breakthrough for industrial applications has been madewith the development of industrial approaches to velocity model building. We proposean extension of these approaches, sampling an equi-probable contour of the tomographyposterior probability density function (pdf) rather than the full pdf, and usingnon-linear slope tomography. Our approach allows to assess the quality of uncertainty relatedassumptions (linearity and Gaussian hypothesis within the Bayesian theory)and estimate volumetric migration positioning uncertainties (a generalization of horizonuncertainties), in addition to the advantages in terms of computational efficiency.We derive the theoretical concepts underlying this approach and unify our derivationswith those of previous publications. As the method works in the full model space ratherthan in a preconditioned one, we split the analysis into the resolved and unresolvedtomography spaces. We argue that the resolved space uncertainties are to be used infurther steps leading to decision-making and can be related to the output of methodsthat work in a preconditioned model space. The unresolved space uncertainties representa qualitative byproduct specific to our method, strongly highlighting the mostuncertain gross areas, thus useful for QCs. These concepts are demonstrated on asynthetic dataset. In addition, the industrial viability of the method is illustrated ontwo different 3D field datasets. The first one consists of a merge of different seismic surveys in the North Sea and shows corresponding structural uncertainties. The second one consists of a marine dataset and shows the impact of structural uncertainties on gross-rock volume computation.


Author(s):  
Ryosuke Doke ◽  
Ken-ichi Yasue ◽  
Tadafumi Niizato ◽  
Akio Nakayasu

Geological hazard assessments are being used to make important decisions relevant to nuclear facilities such as a repository for deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste. With respect to such repositories, topographic evolution is a key issue for description of the long-term evolution of a groundwater flow characteristics in time spans of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The construction of topographic evolution models is complex, involving tacit knowledge and working processes. Therefore, it is important to externalise, that is to explicitly present the tacit knowledge and decision-making processes used by experts in the model building unambiguously, with thorough documentation and to provide key knowledge to support planning and implementation of investigations. In this study, documentation of the technical know-how used for the construction of a topographic evolution model is demonstrated. The process followed in the construction of the model is illustrated using task-flow logic diagrams; the process involves four main tasks with several subtasks. The task-flow followed for an investigation to estimate uplift rates linked to the task-flow for the modelling of topographic evolution is also illustrated. In addition, the decision-making processes in the investigation are expressed in logical IF-THEN format for each task. Based on the documented technical know-how, an IT-based Expert System was constructed. In future work, it is necessary to analyse the knowledge, including the management of uncertainties in the modelling and investigations, and to integrate fundamental ideas for managing uncertainties with expert system.


Author(s):  
Jan Hendrik Roodt

Massive societal change will result from the rate of continuous technology advancement and the pace will increase. The enterprise will face operational and technical challenges and society will increasingly expect the highest ethical conduct. What strategy will allow the organization to remain innovative and thrive in these circumstances? To develop new insight, anticipatory skills, and better decision making, a case is made for the adoption of model building and simulation. In addition to the benefits of shared conceptual artefacts for communicating in the enterprise, modelling requires a deep understanding of the ethics and reflexivity needed to deal with complex issues and using a transdisciplinary framework for inquiry may increase understanding. For innovation to emerge, participatory and co-creative approaches for sense-making are proposed to shift the responsibility for ethical decisions to more actors in the enterprise. This approach allows leaders to engage with the informal coalitions in the enterprise and shape the required strategic direction.


Author(s):  
E. Ebenhoh

This chapter introduces an agent-based modeling framework for reproducing micro behavior in economic experiments. It gives an overview of the theoretical concept which forms the foundation of the framework as well as short descriptions of two exemplary models based on experimental data. The heterogeneous agents are endowed with a number of attributes like cooperativeness and employ more or less complex heuristics during their decision-making processes. The attributes help to distinguish between agents, and the heuristics distinguish between behavioral classes. Through this design, agents can be modeled to behave like real humans and their decision making is observable and traceable, features that are important when agent-based models are to be used in collaborative planning or participatory model-building processes.


Info-metrics is a framework for modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. It is an interdisciplinary framework situated at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. In a recent book on the Foundations of Info-Metrics, Golan (OUP, 2018) provides the theoretical underpinning of info-metrics and the necessary tools and building blocks for using that framework. This volume complements Golan’s book and expands on the series of studies on the classical maximum entropy and Bayesian methods published in the different proceedings started with the seminal collection of Levine and Tribus (1979) and continuing annually. The objective of this volume is to expand the study of info-metrics, and information processing, across the sciences and to further explore the basis of information-theoretic inference and its mathematical and philosophical foundations. This volume is inherently interdisciplinary and applications oriented. It contains some of the recent developments in the field, as well as many new cross-disciplinary case studies and examples. The emphasis here is on the interrelationship between information and inference where we view the word ‘inference’ in its most general meaning – capturing all types of problem solving. That includes model building, theory creation, estimation, prediction, and decision making. The volume contains nineteen chapters in seven parts. Although chapters in each part are related, each chapter is self-contained; it provides the necessary tools for using the info-metrics framework for solving the problem confronted in that chapter. This volume is designed to be accessible for researchers, graduate students, and practitioners across the disciplines, requiring only some basic quantitative skills. The multidisciplinary nature and applications provide a hands-on experience for the reader.


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