Forecasting of the World Market Price of Oil

2019 ◽  
pp. 41-60
Author(s):  
Adalat Muradov ◽  
Yadulla Hasanli ◽  
Nazim Hajiyev
Keyword(s):  
World Market Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
The World

scholarly journals STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS OF ORGANIZATION GARLIC BUSINESS IN UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
pp. 173-186
Author(s):  
Ivan ZUBAR
Keyword(s):  
World Market Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
Planting Material ◽  
Current State ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Development

The article considers the current state of the garlic market in the world. It is determined that garlic is one of the most widely used crops in the world and has a wide range of uses, which makes it a promising object of business interests. An overview of the dominant trends in the production of garlic, the capacity of the world market, price aspects and formed the top 5 countries-exorcists of this product. The trend of gradual growth of volumes of deliveries and currency earnings has been recorded. The tendencies of export-import circulation of garlic are analyzed, features of production and realization of this product in Ukraine are determined. The key problems of domestic garlic are outlined. A description of the varietal conglomeration of domestic garlic selection was carried out. On the basis of author's data, the calculation of the efficiency of using different planting material and landing schemes was made. Also calculated the expediency of storing garlic in vegetable stores and selling it in winter. On the basis of which are summarized the main vectors of the organization of profitable garlic business in the countryside. According to the results of the conducted research, a number of problematic factors that restrain the effective development of this industry in Ukraine are proposed and the key paradigmatic directions of their solution are proposed.

Developments in the EU and world sugar markets in 2009

2010 ◽  
pp. 29-36
Author(s):  
Stephan Nolte ◽  
Harald Grethe
Keyword(s):  
World Market Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Determining Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
Sugar Market ◽  
The Eu

The article reviews the developments on the sugar market in 2009. After the introduction, it starts with an overview of production and consumption in all world regions. Production shortfalls in major producing countries led to an increase of the world market price to a 28 year high. For the current season, a further deficit is expected. The next chapter informs about developments on the EU market, where the implementation phase of the 2006 reform ended and a new regulation for sugar imports from ACP countries entered into force. The last chapter discusses model based forecasts of the world sugar market over the coming decade and determining factors of the medium term development of production and consumption of sugar.

scholarly journals Information, Finance, and the New International Inequality: The Case of Coffee

2002 ◽  
pp. 215-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Talbot
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
World Market Price ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
World Market ◽  
Access To Information ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
International Inequality ◽  
The World

This paper argues that a “new” international inequality has been superimposed over the “old” international inequality, and that this superimposition can help to explain the increasing degree of inequality in the world economy today. The old international inequality was based on the colonial division of labor, in which the periphery provided raw materials to core-based industries. The new inequality is based on control over ?ows of information and ?nancial capital by core-based transnational corporations (TNCs). This argument is illustrated using the empirical example of the world coffee market, comparing the responses of market participants to twosevere frosts in Brazil, which significantly disrupted the market. Following the first frost, in 1975 under the “old” international inequality, TNCs responded gradually amidst uncertainty over the frost’s impacts, allowing coffee-producing countries to reap windfall profits during an extended period of high prices. TNCs responded immediately to the second frost in 1994, due to their access to information about the severity of the frost and their control over financial instruments used to set the world market price of coffee. This quick response enabled them to capture most of the excess profits resulting from a much shorter period of high prices.

The effect of China's domestic public storage on world market prices: the case of cotton

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenshou Yan ◽  
Kaixing Huang
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
World Market Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
International Market ◽  
World Market ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Price ◽  
The World

PurposeDuring world price spike periods, the government is more likely to apply trade distortions to stabilize domestic prices, but the trade distortions would amplify fluctuations of international market prices. Which type of policy may stabilize the domestic market price, but not disturb the international market? This paper answers the question by taking public storage policy as a case study in the context of trade policy. Specially, this paper tries to identify the effect of domestic public storage on the world market price.Design/methodology/approachThis article extends a standard theoretical model of trade policy through incorporating domestic public storage policy and makes the model more applicable in the context of China. The extended model is then applied to analysis how domestic public storage policy affects the international market price in the context of trade policy. Finally, a properly identified structural vector auto-regression technique is applied to test the effect of domestic public storage on the world market price by using cotton data from China.FindingsThe theoretical model indicates that China's public storage policy could stabilize the international market price. In order to test the working mechanisms, China's soaring public storage between 2010 and 2014 is employed to identify the effects of China's cotton storage on the volatility of the world price. The empirical findings show that China was able to stabilize the international price of cotton to a non-trivial extent through alteration of its public stockpile.Originality/valueThe first contribution is that this paper extends a standard theoretical model of trade policy to incorporate domestic public storage policy, which enables us to explore the effects of domestic public storage policy on the world price in the context of China. The second major contribution is that this paper provides evidence that, as a large player in the world market, China's public storage policy could stabilize the international agricultural price to a substantial degree.

Tradable emission quotas, technical progress and climate change

1996 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.G. Bertram
Keyword(s):  
Technical Progress ◽  
World Market Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
The South ◽  
Quota System ◽  
Quota Allocation ◽  
The World ◽  
Emission Quotas ◽  
Per Capita

ABSTRACTThe paper reviews two alternative rules for allocation of property rights in a global greenhouse-gas emissions budget, assuming implementation of a tradablequota arrangement. These are the per capita rule and no-regrets-for-the-South (NRFTS) rule. The operation of a quota market under these alternative regimes is simulated on a spreadsheet, using 1990–1 data from 125 countries. A significant result is that once the South has secured a quota allocation based on the per capita principle, it stands collectively to lose from progress in abatement technology because of the strong link from technical progress to the world market price of quota. The more restricted NRFTS rule gives the South smaller gains from the quota system, but enables it to retain some of the rents from its own technical progress. Some implications for the South's position in future negotiations are noted.

scholarly journals A Comparison of World and Domestic Price Volatilities of Oilseeds: The Ethiopian Case

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 145-161
Author(s):  
Zerihun G. Kelbore
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
World Market ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Price Risks ◽  
The Government

This study investigates and compares oilseeds price volatilities in the world market and the Ethiopian market. It uses a monthly time series data on oilseeds from February 1999 to December 2012; and analyses price volatilities using unconditional method (standard deviation) and conditional method (GARCH). The results indicate that oilseeds prices are more volatile, but not persistent, in the domestic market than the world market. The magnitude of the influence of the news about past volatility (innovations) is higher in the domestic market for Rapeseed and in the World market for Linseed. However, in both markets there is a problem of volatility clustering. The study also identified that due to the financial crisis the world market price volatilities surpassed and/or paralleled the higher domestic oilseeds price volatilities. The higher domestic oilseeds price volatility may imply that the price risks are high in the domestic oilseeds market. As extreme price volatility influences farmers` production decision, they may opt to other less risky, low-value and less profitable crop varieties. The implications of such retreat is that it may keep the farmers in the traditional farming and impede their transformation to the high value crops, and results in lower income hindering the poverty reduction efforts of the government. This is more important to consider today than was before, because measures undertaken to reduce poverty must bring sustainable change in the lives of the rural poor. For this reason, agricultural policies that enable farmers cope with price risks and enhance their productivity are crucial.

scholarly journals Professor Nurkse and the Marketing Boards

1965 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-637
Author(s):  
Gordon C. Winston
Keyword(s):  
Free Market ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
World Market ◽  
Supply Function ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Primary Products ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Demand Fluctuations

rofessor Nurkse presented a compelling case against the price stabilization policies of national marketing boards for primary products based on the fact that these policies may reduce the quantity of foreign revenue accruing to the primary producing country [1], If they do, they may act to restrict the rate of economic development. To maximize export earnings, he proposed elimination of the marketing boards' function of insulating domestic producers of primary products from demand fluctuations on the world market. These demand fluctua¬tions were considered to be the result of cyclical fluctuations within the advanced countries, hence they were treated in a short-run context. To see Professor Nurkse's argument, consider a marketing board which has as its objective the stabilization of the price of a primary product, X, to the domestic producers of X in country A by use of a buffer fund1. This will be accomplished by the board, as a domestic monopsonist, if it fixes a price for its purchases of the product, then sells on the world market for whatever it can get in light of world demand conditions. Assuming that stabilization of price is its sole objective, it will select a domestic price which represents the anticipated weighted average of the world market price over some time period so that the board itself will, hopefully, show neither a profit nor a loss at the end of the period from these tax and subsidy operations. While the short run free market supply function, Sf (which we assume to be linear, of positive price elasticity, stable, and responsive without lags), still exists, the stabilization of domestic price at p in Figure 1 will yield a supply function to the world market, Sm, which is perfectly inelastic at the quantity, Q.

West African cocoa farmers face price disappointment

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Market Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
West African ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minimum Income ◽  
Cocoa Farmers ◽  
Guaranteed Minimum Income

Significance However, with COVID-19-related disruptions weakening chocolate demand, and expectations for another tumble in cocoa’s world market price, the Ivorian Coffee and Cocoa Board (CCC) and the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) face budgetary challenges in providing a promised guaranteed minimum income. Impacts Though both regulators face pre-season financing challenges, they expect to secure financing for 2020/21 harvest cocoa purchases. Chocolate manufacturers in consumer countries will maintain pressure on the CCC and Cocobod to pay out the LID as promised to farmers. Demand for chocolate is expected to recover in the medium term, giving some reassurance for an eventual modest cocoa price recovery.

scholarly journals Validation of EXNUT for Scheduling Peanut Irrigation in North Carolina1

1998 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. I. Davidson ◽  
W. J. Griffin ◽  
M. C. Lamb ◽  
R. G. Williams ◽  
G. Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
World Market Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
Irrigation Scheduling ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
County Agents ◽  
Medium Type

Abstract During crop years 1989-1992 EXNUT concepts and a version of EXNUT modified for North Carolina conditions were evaluated. This version was revised and evaluated on 20-25 peanut fields during crop years 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997 when average yields of 4360, 4890, 4640, 4530, and 4770 kg/ha, respectively, were obtained. These yields averaged 880 kg/ha higher than average yields produced on these irrigated fields prior to 1993 and 1660 kg/ha higher than the average county yields during 1993-1997. The farmers and county agents reported that irrigation scheduled by EXNUT provided an estimated 500 kg/ha increase in yields. Costs of running EXNUT were estimated at $5.14/ha. Using these estimates, net returns from using EXNUT instead of normal irrigation scheduling by the farmer was $272.76/ha. Average compliance of farmers with EXNUT water scheduling recommendations was 85 and 75% for wet years (1994 and 1996) and dry years (1993, 1995, and 1997), respectively. On the average, a 71% or higher compliance with EXNUT recommendations on fields with sandy- and medium-type soils resulted in yields greater than 4480 kg/ha, making irrigation of peanuts feasible in these fields at a world market price as low as $350 per metric ton. Every percentage point increase in compliance with EXNUT recommendations on these fields resulted in an increase in yield of 50 and 110 kg/ha during wet and dry years, respectively. Yields from fields with heavy type soils averaged only 3850 kg/ha because of excessive disease and harvest losses. On the average, peanuts can be produced on this heavy-type soil at world market prices of $410/metric ton if compliance with EXNUT recommendations is at least 80%. This 9-yr study is an example of how expert systems can be transferred through cooperation of researchers, extension specialists, and users.

Competitiveness of different sugarcane industries in an era of low sugar prices

2020 ◽  
pp. 94-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Jean Claude Autrey ◽  
L. Jolly ◽  
P. Leste de Périndorge
Keyword(s):  
Sugar Industry ◽  
Market Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
General Situation ◽  
Technical Performance ◽  
Western Africa ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
The World ◽  
Cane Quality ◽  
And Control

A surplus in global production over consumption in 2017-18, initially projected at 10 mn t of sugar mainly from boosted production in India, Thailand, European Union and other countries, resulted in a 10-year low price of sugar in August 2018. Due to the low price environment seen in 2017-18, even the most efficient sugar producing countries such as Brazil had production cost higher than the world market price. It was opportune to study the competitiveness of different sugarcane industries in Southern, Eastern, Central and Western Africa in comparison with large producers such as Brazil, India, Thailand and Australia. Parameters measured included the general situation of each industry, the production of cane (area cultivated, yield, productivity, cane quality, harvest and control, performance of small producers, price of cane and research, development and extension), milling of cane (number of factories, sugar production, milling efficiency, price of sugar locally and internationally) and diversification (biofuel, electricity cogeneration and others). The technical performance indicators usually used by sugar analysts across the world were used to compare the technical efficiency of the industries concerned in relation to their regional and world competitors. National policies implemented in each country were analysed. Explicit lessons were drawn from the complexity and diversity of sugar policy applied to industries around the globe. Armed with these lessons, stakeholders should be able to develop a reformed policy tool box for the sugar industry that will allow it to achieve the required efficiency at all levels.

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