When Players Affect Target Values: Modeling and Solving Dynamic Partially Observable Security Games

2019 ◽  
pp. 542-562
Author(s):  
Xinrun Wang ◽  
Milind Tambe ◽  
Branislav Bošanský ◽  
Bo An
Keyword(s):  
Target Values ◽  
Security Games ◽  
Partially Observable

Civilization stress, cardiovascular risk, evidence based medicine, guideline

2009 ◽  
Vol 150 (19) ◽  
pp. 895-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kornél Simon
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Chronic Stress ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Profit Sharing ◽  
Pole Position ◽  
Ethical Question ◽  
Drug Sale ◽  
Target Values

Cardiovascular diseases have the pole-position on the list of morbidity and mortality statistics. Despite the great advances have been made in management of cardiovascular diseases, prevalence of these disorders increases worldwide, and even younger and younger ages are threatened. This phenomenon is strongly related to obesity and type 2 diabetes pandemic, which shows an unequivocal association with expansion of modernized life-style. The pathomechanism proposed to have central role is the chronic stress induced by civilized life-conduct. The authors criticizes the everyday practice suggested for management of cardiovascular diseases, focusing on normalization of cardiovascular risk factors, instead of fighting against the primary cause ie. chronic stress. There is growing evidence, that achieving the target values defined in guide-lines will not necessarily result in improvement of patient related clinical outcomes. The statistical approach generally practiced in randomized clinical trials is primarily striving for the drug-sale, instead of discovering novel pathophysiological relations. Pharmaceutical industry having decisive role in research and patient-care is mainly interested in profit-sharing, therefore patients’ interest can not be optimally realized, and costs are unnecessarily augmented. Separation of patient-, and business-oriented medical care is an ethical question of fundamental importance.

From lipid target values to JUPITER study. Importance of the achievement of lipid levels specified by the guidelines and deficiencies in the present practice

2009 ◽  
Vol 150 (44) ◽  
pp. 2012-2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
László Márk ◽  
András Katona
Keyword(s):  
Lipid Levels ◽  
Present Practice ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Hs Crp

Magyarországon 1993 és 2006 között a születéskor várható élettartam 4,14 évvel nőtt, és ehhez a cardiovascularis halandóság javulása 1,85 évvel járult hozzá. A lipidszintcsökkentő kezelés, a lipidcélértékek elérése az utóbbi években a cardiovascularis prevenció egyik súlyponti kérdése lett. A javuló tendencia ellenére az LDL-koleszterin-szint célértékének elérési aránya nem nagyobb egyharmadnál, és ebben leginkább az játszik szerepet, hogy a nem megfelelő szintű lipidcsökkentést igazoló eredménybe az orvosok nagyobb része (2007-ben 56%-a) beletörődik, nem igyekszik módosítani a kezelésen, pedig egyre több adat igazolja, hogy az alacsonyabb LDL-koleszterin-szint elérése nemcsak a klinikai kimenetelt javítja szignifikánsan, hanem költséghatékony is. Az utóbbi időszak legjelentősebb, statinnal végzett új vizsgálata a JUPITER, amely lipidszintjeik miatt statinkezelést nem igénylő, magas hs-CRP-szintű, nem ismert érbetegeken igazolta, hogy 20 mg rosuvastatin adásával szignifikánsan, 44%-kal csökkenthető a primer végpont (a cardiovascularis halálozás, nem halálos stroke és szívinfarktus, instabil angina vagy revascularisatio) és 20%-kal az összhalálozás előfordulása. Egy primer végpont megelőzéséhez 23 beteg 5 éves kezelése szükséges. Az eredmények felvetik a primer prevenció elvei és célértékei átgondolásának szükségességét, valamint azt, hogy minden lipidcsökkentő kezelésben nagyobb figyelmet kellene fordítani a betegek hs-CRP szintjére.

Endogeneity of Monetary Policy Reaction Fun~tion: An Experience from Pakistan's Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (4II) ◽  
pp. 931-941
Author(s):  
M. Aynul Hasan ◽  
Qazi Masood Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Standard Result ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Monetary Policy Reaction Function ◽  
Policy Reaction Function

Monetary policy, in general, refers to those steps taken by the Central Bank to achieve such broader objectives of the economy as growth, employment, external balance and price stability through changes in the money supply, interest rates and credit policies. The money supply thus created by the Central Bank should be in response to the changes in key macroeconomic target variables such as GNP, balance of payments, inflation, internal debt and unemployment. Indeed, a properly estimated monetary policy reaction function can provide useful information regarding such matters as to whether the Central Bank, in fact, has been systematically accommodating to the changes in the target variables. The reaction function can also provide insight into the question as to what should be the relevant indicators of the monetary policy. In addition, as argued by Havrilesky (1967), it may also play a crucial role in the formulation of long-term monetary policy strategy. The other important consideration in the development of a monetary policy reaction function pertains to the endogeneity of the monetary policy. As pointed out by Goldfeld and Blinder (1972), if a policy variable responds to the lagged (or expected) target values, then considering such a policy variable as exogenous would not only introduce the problem of misspecification but will also produce serious biases in the parameters estimated from those models. In particular, if the monetary policy variable happens to be strongly influenced by target variables, then the standard result of the relative effectiveness of the monetary policy vis-a-vis fiscal policy can be questionable on the grounds of reverse causation problem.

Research the Mutual Influence of Indicators in Innovation Planning at Enterprises

2020 ◽  
pp. 192-198
Author(s):  
M. S. Kuz’min
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
Formal Approach ◽  
Innovation Development ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Innovation Planning

The author analyzes the innovation development programs of 11 Russian companies with state participation and state corporations and compares the achieved results with innovation development plans. The results of the analysis show that the existing relationships between the performance indicators of the companies’ innovation activity for 2014–2016 are not considered or reflected in the programs of innovation development until 2020. This study indicates the causes of the current situation and proposes directions for improving the efficiency of innovation development planning.Aim. The study aims to examine the mutual influence of indicators in innovation planning at enterprises.Tasks. The author analyzes the existing innovation development programs of large state-owned companies and the correlation between the performance indicators of innovation activity, assesses the actual results of the implementation of innovation development programs for 2014–2016 and the validity of the planned indicators of innovation development until 2020.Methods. This study uses the methods of systems and correlation-regression analysis.Results. The analysis shows that the actual relationships between the performance indicators of the companies’ innovation activity for 2014–2016 are not considered or reflected in the programs of innovation development until 2020. This study indicates the causes of the current situation and proposes directions for improving the efficiency of innovation development planning. A matrix for determining problem situations in innovation development planning is developed.Conclusions. The actual relationships between the indicators that characterize many aspects of innovation development at various stages of the innovation life cycle are not fully considered in the planning of innovation development. The conducted study confirms a formal approach to estimating the target values of the examined indicators, which disregards the actual relationships between them. The outcome of this can be seen in the programs of innovation development until 2020 developed by corporations. It is possible to make allowance for the actual relationships in the planning of the target values of innovation development indicators by using the methods and tools of dynamic modeling.

How many CCS- and ACS-patients might reach the newly recommended LDL-C-target <55mg/dl in clinical practice if guidelines were applied – an estimate from the DYSIS II study population

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A.K Gitt ◽  
M Horack ◽  
D Lautsch ◽  
R Zahn ◽  
J Ferrieres
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Statin Treatment ◽  
Lipid Lowering ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
High Dose ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Pcsk9 Inhibitors ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Coronary Syndromes

Abstract Background The 2019 ESC guidelines for the management of dyslipidemia even further lowered the LDL-C-target values for the very high-risk population from &lt;70mg/dl to &lt;55mg/dl. Population based studies already had shown that the previous target was difficult to reach. It is yet unclear how many patients in clinical practice might be treated to the new target. Methods The Dyslipidemia International Study (DYSIS II) prospectively collected data of patients with chronic coronary syndromes (CCS) and acute coronary syndromes (ACS) (all on statins) in 18 countries in Europe, the Middle East, South- and East Asia to document patient characteristics, medication and a current lipid profile from 2012 to 2014 under real life conditions in physicians' offices and hospitals. We took these real-life lipid profiles and data on the kind/dose of used statins to estimate how treatment escalation such as changing statin treatment to a high dose (atorvastatin ≥40mg / rosuvastatin≥20mg), adding ezetimibe and adding a PCSK9-inhibitor might help to bring LDL-C-levels to the recommended &lt;55mg/dl target. Results A total of 7,865 patients were enrolled into DYSIS II, 6,794 had CCS and 1,071 ACS. Under the documented statin treatment in DYSIS only 12.7% of patients reached an LDL-C &lt;55mg/dl. Putting all patients on high dose statins in combination with ezetimibe, 64.1% would reach the target. If PCSK9-inhibitors would be used in the remaining patients not at goal a total of 94.0% would match the goal. Conclusion Our analysis indicates that in real life practice the use available lipid-lowering medications would substantially increase the percentage of CCS- and ACS-patients reaching the newly recommended 2019 ESC guideline LDL-C-target of &lt;55 mg/dl from less than 20% to more than 90% of the population. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): MSD

scholarly journals The look ahead trace back optimizer for genomic selection under transparent and opaque simulators

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Amini ◽  
Felipe Restrepo Franco ◽  
Guiping Hu ◽  
Lizhi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Genomic Selection ◽  
Genetic Gain ◽  
Genomic Prediction ◽  
In Planta ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
Trace Back ◽  
New Variant ◽  
The Look ◽  
Partially Observable

AbstractRecent advances in genomic selection (GS) have demonstrated the importance of not only the accuracy of genomic prediction but also the intelligence of selection strategies. The look ahead selection algorithm, for example, has been found to significantly outperform the widely used truncation selection approach in terms of genetic gain, thanks to its strategy of selecting breeding parents that may not necessarily be elite themselves but have the best chance of producing elite progeny in the future. This paper presents the look ahead trace back algorithm as a new variant of the look ahead approach, which introduces several improvements to further accelerate genetic gain especially under imperfect genomic prediction. Perhaps an even more significant contribution of this paper is the design of opaque simulators for evaluating the performance of GS algorithms. These simulators are partially observable, explicitly capture both additive and non-additive genetic effects, and simulate uncertain recombination events more realistically. In contrast, most existing GS simulation settings are transparent, either explicitly or implicitly allowing the GS algorithm to exploit certain critical information that may not be possible in actual breeding programs. Comprehensive computational experiments were carried out using a maize data set to compare a variety of GS algorithms under four simulators with different levels of opacity. These results reveal how differently a same GS algorithm would interact with different simulators, suggesting the need for continued research in the design of more realistic simulators. As long as GS algorithms continue to be trained in silico rather than in planta, the best way to avoid disappointing discrepancy between their simulated and actual performances may be to make the simulator as akin to the complex and opaque nature as possible.

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