Evolving Prediction Models with Genetic Algorithm to Forecast Vehicle Volume in a Service Station (Best Application Paper)

2019 ◽  
pp. 167-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Himadri Sikhar Khargharia ◽  
Siddhartha Shakya ◽  
Russell Ainslie ◽  
Gilbert Owusu
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Service Station ◽  
Application Paper

scholarly journals A Genetic Algorithm Optimized RNN-LSTM Model for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Turbofan Engine

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 285
Author(s):  
Kwok Tai Chui ◽  
Brij B. Gupta ◽  
Pandian Vasant
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Turbofan Engine ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Useful Life

Understanding the remaining useful life (RUL) of equipment is crucial for optimal predictive maintenance (PdM). This addresses the issues of equipment downtime and unnecessary maintenance checks in run-to-failure maintenance and preventive maintenance. Both feature extraction and prediction algorithm have played crucial roles on the performance of RUL prediction models. A benchmark dataset, namely Turbofan Engine Degradation Simulation Dataset, was selected for performance analysis and evaluation. The proposal of the combination of complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition and wavelet packet transform for feature extraction could reduce the average root-mean-square error (RMSE) by 5.14–27.15% compared with six approaches. When it comes to the prediction algorithm, the results of the RUL prediction model could be that the equipment needs to be repaired or replaced within a shorter or a longer period of time. Incorporating this characteristic could enhance the performance of the RUL prediction model. In this paper, we have proposed the RUL prediction algorithm in combination with recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The former takes the advantages of short-term prediction whereas the latter manages better in long-term prediction. The weights to combine RNN and LSTM were designed by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II). It achieved average RMSE of 17.2. It improved the RMSE by 6.07–14.72% compared with baseline models, stand-alone RNN, and stand-alone LSTM. Compared with existing works, the RMSE improvement by proposed work is 12.95–39.32%.

Modeling Human Behavior to Reduce Navigation Time of Menu Items

2015 ◽  
pp. 162-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiantian Xie ◽  
Yuxi Zhu ◽  
Tao Lin ◽  
Rui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Mobile Devices ◽  
Human Behavior ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Menu Item ◽  
Structure Complexity

With the increase in the number of menu items and the menu structure complexity, users have to spend more time in locating menu items when using menu-based interfaces. Recently, adaptive menu techniques have been explored to reduce the time and menu item prediction plays a crucial role in the techniques. Unfortunately, there still lacks effective prediction models for menu items. This chapter per the authors explores the potential of three prediction models based on Markov chain in predicting top n menu items with human behavior data while interacting with menus - the users' historical menu item selections. The results show that Weighted Markov Chain using Genetic Algorithm can obtain the highest prediction accuracy and significantly decrease navigation time by 22.6% when N equals 4 as compared to the static counterpart. Two application scenarios of these models on mobile devices and desktop also demonstrated the potentials in daily usage to reduce the time spent to search target menu items.

scholarly journals Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Falat ◽  
Dusan Marcek ◽  
Maria Durisova
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Soft Computing ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Hybrid Neural Network

This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined withK-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

scholarly journals Sales Forecasting Model Based on BP Neural Network Optimized by Improved Immune Genetic Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunyu Cao ◽  
Yongdang Chen ◽  
Xinxin Song ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Antibody Concentration ◽  
Immune Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Network Prediction

Abstract A new sales forecasting model based on an Improved Immune Genetic Algorithm (IIGA), IIGA that optimizes the BPNN (IIGA-BP) has been proposed. The IIGA presents a new way of population initialization, a regulatory mechanism of antibody concentration, and a design method of adaptive crossover operator and mutation operator, which effectively improved the convergence ability and optimization anility of IIGA. And IIGA can optimize the BPNN’s initial weights and threshold and improve the randomness of network parameters as well as the drawbacks that lead to output instability of BPNN and easiness into local minimum value. It taking the past records of sales figures of a certain steel enterprise as an example, utilizing the Matlab to construct the BP neural network, Immune Genetic Algorithm that optimizes the BPNN (IGA-BP), IGA-BP neural network, and IIGA-BP neural network prediction models for simulation and comparative analysis. The experiment demonstrates that IIGA-BP neural network prediction model possessing a higher prediction accuracy and more stable prediction effects.

scholarly journals An Optimized Method of Wind Speed Prediction with Support Vector Machine and Genetic Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 212-217
Author(s):  
Guan-fa Li ◽  
Wen-sheng Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power System ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

Due to the randomness of wind speed and direction, the output power of wind turbine also has randomness. After large-scale wind power integration, it will bring a lot of adverse effects on the power quality of the power system, and also bring difficulties to the formulation of power system dispatching plan. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, an optimized method of wind speed prediction with support vector machine and genetic algorithm is put forward. Compared with other optimization methods, the simulation results show that the optimized genetic algorithm not only has good convergence speed, but also can find more suitable parameters for data samples. When the data is updated according to time series, the optimization range of vaccine and parameters is adaptively adjusted and updated. Therefore, as a new optimization method, the optimization method has certain theoretical significance and practical application value, and can be applied to other time series prediction models.

scholarly journals Prognosis of Chronic Renal Syndrome by Classification and Progression Using Temporal Abstraction

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 53-58
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Temporal Abstraction ◽  
Graphic Data ◽  
Lab Test

Chronic renal syndrome is defined as a progressive loss of renal function over period. Analysers have make effort in attempting to diagnosis the risk factors that may affect the retrogression of chronic renal syndrome. The motivation of this project helps to develop a prediction model for level 4 CKD patients to detect on condition that, their estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) stage downscale to lower than 15 ml/min/1.73 m². End phase renal disease, after six months accumulating their concluding lab test observation by assessing time affiliated aspects. Data mining algorithm along with Temporal Abstraction (TA) are confederated to reinforce CKD evolvement of prognostication models. In this work a inclusive of 112 chronic renal disease patients are composed from April 1952 to September 2011 which were extracted from the patient’s Electronic Medical Records (EMR). The information of chronic renal patients are collected in a big spatial info-graphic data. In order to analyse these info-graphic data, it is significant to detect the issues affecting CKD deterioration and hence it becomes a challenging task. To overcome this challenge, time series graph has been generated in this project work based on creatinine and albumin lab test values and reports of the time period. The presence of CKD diagnostic codes are transformed into default seven digit default format of International Classification of Disease 10 Clinical Modification (ICD 10 CM). Feature selection is performed in this work based on wrapper method using genetic algorithm. It is helpful for finding the most relevant variables for a predictive model. High Utility Sequential Rule Miner (HUSRM) is used here to address the discovery of CKD sequential rules based on sequence patterns. Temporal Abstraction (TA) techniques namely basic TA and complex TA are used in this work to analyse the status of chronic renal syndrome patients. Classification and Regression Technique (CART) along with Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and Support Vector Machine Boosting (SVMBoost) are applied to develop the CKD in which the progression prediction models exhibit most accurate prediction. The results obtained from this work divulged that comprehending temporal observation forward the prognostic instances has escalated the efficacy of the instances. Finally, an evaluation metrics namely accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood, negative likelihood and Area Under the Curve (AUC) are helps to evaluate the performance of the prediction models which are designed and implemented in this project. Key Words: CKD, progression, time series data, genetic algorithm, sequential rules, TA classification and prediction model.

scholarly journals An Enhanced K-Nearest Neighbor Predictive Model through Metaheuristic Optimization

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 280-292
Author(s):  
Allemar Jhone P. Delima
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Faculty Evaluation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Improved Genetic Algorithm ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Negative Effects

The k-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm is vulnerable to noise, which is rooted in the dataset and has negative effects on its accuracy. Hence, various researchers employ variable minimization techniques before predicting the KNN in the quest so as to improve its predictive capability. The genetic algorithm (GA) is the most widely used metaheuristics for such purpose; however, the GA suffers a problem that its mating scheme is bounded on its crossover operator. Thus, the use of the novel inversed bi-segmented average crossover (IBAX) is observed. In the present work, the crossover improved genetic algorithm (CIGAL) is instrumental in the enhancement of KNN’s prediction accuracy. The use of the unmodified genetic algorithm has removed 13 variables, while the CIGAL then further removes 20 variables from the 30 total variables in the faculty evaluation dataset. Consequently, the integration of the CIGAL to the KNN (CIGAL-KNN) prediction model improves the KNN prediction accuracy to 95.53%. In contrast to the model of having the unmodified genetic algorithm (GA-KNN), the use of the lone KNN algorithmand the prediction accuracy is only at 89.94% and 87.15%, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the models, the use of the 10-folds cross-validation technique reveals 93.13%, 89.27%, and 87.77% prediction accuracy of the CIGAL-KNN, GA-KNN, and KNN prediction models, respectively. As the result, the CIGAL carried out an optimized GA performance and increased the accuracy of the KNN algorithm as a prediction model.

scholarly journals Smart learning: A search-based approach to rank change and defect prone classes

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol V Alexandru ◽  
Annibale Panichella ◽  
Sebastiano Panichella ◽  
Alberto Bacchelli ◽  
Harald C Gall
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Smart Learning ◽  
Software Artifacts ◽  
The Right ◽  
Multiple Releases

Research has yielded approaches for predicting future changes and defects in software artifacts, based on historical information, helping developers in effectively allocating their (limited) resources. Developers are unlikely able to focus on all predicted software artifacts, hence the ordering of predictions is important for choosing the right artifacts to concentrate on. We propose using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for tailoring prediction models to prioritize classes with more changes/defects. We evaluate the approach on two models, regression tree and linear regression, predicting changes/defects between multiple releases of eight open source projects. Our results show that regression models calibrated by GA significantly outperform their traditional counterparts, improving the ranking of classes with more changes/defects by up to 48%. In many cases the top 10% of predicted classes can contain up to twice as many changes or defects.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document