scholarly journals Getting to Africa’s Demographic Dividend

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-96
Author(s):  
Jakkie Cilliers
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIn this chapter, Cilliers defines the demographic dividend and explains its relationship to economic growth, with a focus on the African continent. It first covers the fundamentals of the relationship between population and economics, then offers an in-depth discussion of two key concepts, the demographic transition and demographic dividend. The chapter demonstrates that sub-Saharan Africa’s high fertility rates are a drag on development rather than an advantage, as the region can only expect to enjoy a demographic dividend after mid-century. It then uses scenario analysis to demonstrate that, given the right policy conditions, Africa can accelerate population-driven economic growth by reducing its fertility rate through interventions in education, infrastructure, human capital and, most importantly, women’s empowerment.

scholarly journals Guidance Note on Supporting a Demographic Transition in SSA

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evert-jan Quak
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
Guidance Note ◽  
High Population Growth ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Right

This guidance note is about how donors, can support a demographic transition in sub- Saharan Africa. The demographic transition is the evolution from high to low mortality and fertility rates, with associated changes in age structures. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are on a trajectory of rapid population growth. Mortality rates have been declining for some time while fertility rates started to fall later and at a slower pace, resulting in high population growth. It is estimated that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double between 2020 and 2050 to 2.5 billion. This guidance note refers to support from donors to governments in partner countries in two ways. First, support to adapt to the implications of rapid population growth. Second, support to accelerate the demographic transition. Countries in sub- Saharan Africa need to be prepared for population growth and, importantly, also for a unique “window of opportunity” that occurs when fertility rates fall consistently and at a high pace during the demographic transition. With the right investments, these countries could generate economic opportunities for growth, which in the literature is called the “demographic dividend”.

THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: TWO ISSUES THAT NEED MORE ATTENTION

2017 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. May ◽  
Vincent Turbat
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Population Reference Bureau ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Active Adults

Abstract:In mid-2016, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was almost 1 billion people. By 2050, the population of the region will probably reach 2.1 billion people [Population Reference Bureau (2016)]. In 2100, SSA's population could be almost 4 billion people [United Nations (2015)]. This rapid demographic increase would translate into a possible quadrupling of the current SSA population by the end of the century (unless fertility would decline sharply in the near future). Nonetheless, the region has embarked on its demographic transition, i.e., the shift from high to low crude birth rates and crude death rates, albeit this process has occurred in SSA at a slower pace than in the rest of the developing world. In particular, the decline of fertility has been slower in SSA than in the other regions of the world. The rapid population growth and the occurrence of a demographic transition in the region have generated discussions on the prospects for SSA to open a demographic window of opportunity and capture a first demographic dividend. However, two crucial dimensions, which have so far been rather neglected, need more attention. First, one will need to define with more accuracy the sub-populations of the working-age adults and their young and older dependents, therefore refining the calculation of the dependency ratio. In particular, one will need to assess the population of the young dependents as well as the population of adults who are actually working. Second, it will be also necessary to examine the conditions required to trigger a faster and significant fertility decline in the region. This is most important because the relationship between the active adults and their dependents is predicated by the fertility decline, which will bring the changes to the age structure.

Global Trends in Domestic savings and Longevity- Implications for India

2021 ◽  
pp. 111-118
Author(s):  
Thilak Venkatesan ◽  
Venkataraman R
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Policy Action ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
Developed Nations ◽  
The Relationship

Demographic dividend and the lowest median age among the earning population propels consumption and growth in India. Among the emerging economies, China had the leverage for growth through exports until 2008. India benefited by demographic dividend and this translates to providing income and thereby increases savings. On the other hand, the developed countries are experiencing problems of an aging economy, a deflationary scenario, and a pension burden. India, with its major workforce in the unorganized and private sector, needs to recognize the need for forward-looking policies that stimulate savings for a better lifestyle post-retirement. The study was focussed on the relationship between longevity (life expectancy), and domestic savings. The research observed divergence between the developed nations and India. A more futuristic policy action is suggested to motivate savings as the increase in population and higher levels of economic growth can be achieved with more domestic savings.

Innovation, institutions and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa – an IV estimation of a panel threshold model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Ato Forson ◽  
Rosemary Afrakomah Opoku ◽  
Michael Owusu Appiah ◽  
Evans Kyeremeh ◽  
Ibrahim Anyass Ahmed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe significant impact of innovation in stimulating economic growth cannot be overemphasized, more importantly from policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between innovation and economic growth in developing economies such as the ones in Africa has remained topical. Yet, innovation as a concept is multi-dimensional and cannot be measured by just one single variable. With hindsight of the traditional measures of innovation in literature, we augment it with the number of scientific journals published in the region to enrich this discourse.Design/methodology/approachWe focus on an approach that explores innovation policy qualitatively from various policy documents of selected countries in the region from three policy perspectives (i.e. institutional framework, financing and diffusion and interaction). We further investigate whether innovation as perceived differently is important for economic growth in 25 economies in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1990–2016. Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold regression is used to capture the contributions of innovation as a multi-dimensional concept on economic growth, while dealing with endogeneity between the regressors and error term.FindingsThe results from both traditional panel regressions and IV panel threshold regressions show a positive relationship between innovation and economic growth, although the impact seems negligible. Institutional quality dampens innovation among low-regime economies, and the relation is persistent regardless of when the focus is on aggregate or decomposed institutional factors. The impact of innovation on economic growth in most regressions is robust to different dimensions of innovation. Yet, the coefficients of the innovation variables in the two regimes are quite dissimilar. While most countries in the region have offered financial support in the form of budgetary allocations to strengthen institutions, barriers to the design and implementation of innovation policies may be responsible for the sluggish contribution of innovation to the growth pattern of the region.Originality/valueSegregating economies of Africa into two distinct regimes based on a threshold of investment in education as a share of GDP in order to understand the relationship between innovation and economic growth is quite novel. This lends credence to the fact that innovation as a multifaceted concept does not take place by chance – it is carefully planned. We have enriched the discourse of innovation and thus helped in deepening understanding on this contentious subject.

scholarly journals The Coupling Coordination Relationship between Tourism Competitiveness and Economic Growth of Developing Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2350
Author(s):  
Xia Wang ◽  
Danli Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Developing Regions ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Entropy Weight Method ◽  
Weight Method ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Relationship

On the basis of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and information entropy weight method, this study examined the relationship between tourism competitiveness and economic growth of 56 developing countries from 2008 to 2017. The results show that: (1) the overall status of the CCD between tourism competitiveness and economic growth was in a state of unbalance that was mainly caused by the lag of economic growth, which demonstrates the important contribution of tourism in developing regions. (2) the CCD has been gradually improving since 2008, and the differences amongst the CCDs of developing countries have been shrinking and (3) the spatial distribution of the CCD between tourism competitiveness and economic growth has heterogeneity. Latin America & the Caribbean, and East Asia & the Pacific have the highest CCD, whereas Sub-Saharan Africa witnessed severely unbalanced development between tourism competitiveness and economic growth in 2008–2017.

scholarly journals Government Spending and Non-Oil Economic Growth in the UAE

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-93
Author(s):  
Carole Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The present paper studies empirically the relationship between government spending and non-oil economic growth in the UAE for the last four decades by using the vector autoregression (VAR) approach. The findings of the study suggest that the implementation of expansionary policy, through the intensification of current and development public expenditures, induces an increase in the non-oil economic growth during the subsequent periods of the government spending shock. Thus, the implementation of expansionary government spending stimulates the UAE economy, especially during recession periods. The study suggests that policymakers should concentrate their spending on the right projects, as well as on research and development. Moreover, they should channel their transfers and subsidies to the productive sectors, and they should ensure that higher productivity in public institutions is in conjunction with the rise in wages and salaries to achieve sustainable economic growth.

scholarly journals High fertility level in Sub-Saharan Africa: implication for reaping and optimizing demographic dividend

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 3698
Author(s):  
Adebayo K. Sunmola ◽  
Johnson S. Olaosebikan ◽  
Temitope J. Adeusi
Keyword(s):  
Population Policy ◽  
Child Survival ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Early Marriage ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Sub Saharan

Africa region remains the continent with the highest total fertility rate among other major regions of the world such as Europe, North America, Asia and Latin America and Oceania. This paper examines the determinants of high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa; it also determines the policy implication for reaping and optimizing demographic dividend. Secondary data sources were employed in achieving the set objectives. This paper submitted that determinants such as age at first marriage; high child mortality; low female education; gender preference; and limited birth spacing were the determinants of high fertility in Africa. For Africa to harness the demographic dividend, certain policy implications such as investment in child survival and health programmes; investment in quantity and quality of education; multi-sectoral approaches and meeting infrastructural development; enhance job market and enact and enforce laws to prevent early marriage among other policy programmes must be embraced. The paper concludes that there is high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa because of the in-built population momentum of the populace. Also, fertility must be reduced significantly if sub-Saharan Africa must reap and optimize the promising dividend. This paper, therefore, recommends that all government in Africa continent should come up with and implement effective population policy that will help to reduce high fertility level.

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