scholarly journals Guidance Note on Supporting a Demographic Transition in SSA

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evert-jan Quak
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
Guidance Note ◽  
High Population Growth ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Right

This guidance note is about how donors, can support a demographic transition in sub- Saharan Africa. The demographic transition is the evolution from high to low mortality and fertility rates, with associated changes in age structures. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are on a trajectory of rapid population growth. Mortality rates have been declining for some time while fertility rates started to fall later and at a slower pace, resulting in high population growth. It is estimated that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double between 2020 and 2050 to 2.5 billion. This guidance note refers to support from donors to governments in partner countries in two ways. First, support to adapt to the implications of rapid population growth. Second, support to accelerate the demographic transition. Countries in sub- Saharan Africa need to be prepared for population growth and, importantly, also for a unique “window of opportunity” that occurs when fertility rates fall consistently and at a high pace during the demographic transition. With the right investments, these countries could generate economic opportunities for growth, which in the literature is called the “demographic dividend”.

scholarly journals Getting to Africa’s Demographic Dividend

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-96
Author(s):  
Jakkie Cilliers
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIn this chapter, Cilliers defines the demographic dividend and explains its relationship to economic growth, with a focus on the African continent. It first covers the fundamentals of the relationship between population and economics, then offers an in-depth discussion of two key concepts, the demographic transition and demographic dividend. The chapter demonstrates that sub-Saharan Africa’s high fertility rates are a drag on development rather than an advantage, as the region can only expect to enjoy a demographic dividend after mid-century. It then uses scenario analysis to demonstrate that, given the right policy conditions, Africa can accelerate population-driven economic growth by reducing its fertility rate through interventions in education, infrastructure, human capital and, most importantly, women’s empowerment.

scholarly journals Demographic Transition in the Past and Projected Five Decades in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1967-2068: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 56-71
Author(s):  
H. I. Eririogu ◽  
C. A. Okezie ◽  
E. S. Ebukiba
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
The Past ◽  
Sub Saharan

Aims: This study assessed the demographic transition in the past and projected five decades in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1967-2068: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Study Design: Past and projected time series data (between 1967 and 2068) were used for the study. The 1967-2068 data sets were resorted to due to lack of complete national data. Place and Duration of Study: Past (between 1967 and 2017) and projected (between 2018 and 2068) five decades in Nigeria. Methodology: The time series data (1967 to 2068) obtained from the 1950-2099 Interpolated Demographic Data of the United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, on Births, Deaths and Population levels, were used for the study. The 1967-2068 data sets were resorted to due to lack of complete national data. Data collected were analyzed using birth and death rate indices, demographic transition index, growth rate equation and granger causality statistics. Unit root, co-integration and error correction tests were also carried out. Results: Results showed that in the past five decades (1967-2017), the mean crude birth and death rates per 1,000 populations were 43.9 and 18.0 respectively; while that of the projected five decades (2018-2068) was 28.9 and 7.9 respectively per 1000 populations. The demographic indices showed that in the past five decades (between 1967 and 2017), Nigeria was at the second stage (stage II) of demographic transition and expected to remain at this stage in the next five decades (between 2018 and 2068). Results also showed that the population growth rate in the past five decades was 2.584 percent, while the growth rate in the next five decades as projected was 2.098 percent. The population growth rate (2.098 percent) in the next five decades (between 2018 and 2068 as projected) is expected to decrease by an average of 0.486 percent. Results also showed that there is a mutual link between demographic transition and population growth. Conclusion: Nigeria is currently at the second stage of demographic transition and expected to remain at this stage (stage II) in the next five decades. Demographic transition increases the prediction of population growth and vice versa.

Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
pp. 55-76
Author(s):  
Sergey Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
Family Planning Programs

During the universal demographic transition, the traditional type of population reproduction, characterized by high mortality and high fertility, is transformed into a type of reproduction in which both components are at a low level. The demographic transition is not taking place in a social vacuum, but under the influence of many social factors, including the growth of education and economic development. Reducing child mortality is a sine qua non for changing reproductive behavior. Declines in mortality and fertility are usually separated by long periods when population growth is accelerating. The population explosion is fading away in most countries of Asia and Latin America because they have passed the main part of the demographic transition. In Africa, the decline in child mortality began later and is still in the incipient phase. As a result, fertility, although declining in recent decades in most countries, is declining slowly and remains high. The region as a whole is in the early stage of the demographic transition: the population is growing rapidly and it is not expected to stabilize until the end of the century. Most of the economic and social consequences of rapid population growth are negative. Their conceptualization takes place within the framework of the neo-Malthusian paradigm, which made it possible to substantiate demographic policy based on family planning programs that have proven their effectiveness in different regions of the world. The negative, and sometimes disastrous, consequences of rapid population growth are particularly pronounced in Africa. Anti-Malthusianism is less inclined towards scientific argumentation, and its main goal is not pragmatic solutions to problems, but ideological proclamations, although some anti-Malthusian concepts have positive potential. The concept of the demographic dividend, developed in recent decades, makes it possible to remove the contradictions between two opposing paradigms, since it shifts the emphasis from the negative consequences of rapid population growth to the positive consequences of changes in the population age structure during the demographic transition. The demographic transition in Africa needs to be accelerated, and policies are able to do this without relying on the impractical assumptions of fast economic growth. Three interrelated factors are critical: development of education, radical reduction in child mortality and strengthening of family planning programs.

scholarly journals Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Carolina Cardona ◽  
Jean Christophe Rusatira ◽  
Xiaomeng Cheng ◽  
Claire Silberg ◽  
Ian Salas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Child Health ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
And Child Health

Background: Africa will double its population by 2050 and more than half will be below age 25. The continent has a unique opportunity to boost its socioeconomic welfare. This systematic literature review aims to develop a conceptual framework that identifies policies and programs that have provided a favorable environment for generating and harnessing a demographic dividend. This framework can facilitate sub-Saharan African countries’ understanding of needed actions to accelerate their demographic transition and capitalize on their demographic dividend potential. Methods: The search strategy was structured around three concepts: economic development, fertility, and sub-Saharan Africa. Databases used included PubMed and EconLit. An inductive approach was employed to expand the reference base further. Data were extracted using literature records following a checklist of items to include when reporting a systematic review suggested in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. Results: The final review consisted of 78 peer-reviewed articles, ten reports from the gray literature, and one book. Data were categorized according to relevant demographic dividend typology: pre-dividend and early-dividend. The results from the literature review were synthesized into a framework consisting of five sectors for pre-dividend countries, namely 1) Governance and Economic Institutions, 2) Family Planning, 3) Maternal and Child Health, 4) Education, and 5) Women's Empowerment. An additional sector, 6) Labor Market, is added for early-dividend countries. These sectors must work together to attain a demographic dividend. Conclusions: A country's demographic transition stage must guide policy and programs. Most sub-Saharan African countries have prioritized job creation and employment for youth, yet their efforts to secure a productive labor market require preliminary and complementary investments in governance, family planning, maternal and child health, education, and women’s empowerment. Creating a favorable policy environment for generating and capitalizing on a demographic dividend can support their stated goals for development.

THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: TWO ISSUES THAT NEED MORE ATTENTION

2017 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. May ◽  
Vincent Turbat
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Population Reference Bureau ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Active Adults

Abstract:In mid-2016, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was almost 1 billion people. By 2050, the population of the region will probably reach 2.1 billion people [Population Reference Bureau (2016)]. In 2100, SSA's population could be almost 4 billion people [United Nations (2015)]. This rapid demographic increase would translate into a possible quadrupling of the current SSA population by the end of the century (unless fertility would decline sharply in the near future). Nonetheless, the region has embarked on its demographic transition, i.e., the shift from high to low crude birth rates and crude death rates, albeit this process has occurred in SSA at a slower pace than in the rest of the developing world. In particular, the decline of fertility has been slower in SSA than in the other regions of the world. The rapid population growth and the occurrence of a demographic transition in the region have generated discussions on the prospects for SSA to open a demographic window of opportunity and capture a first demographic dividend. However, two crucial dimensions, which have so far been rather neglected, need more attention. First, one will need to define with more accuracy the sub-populations of the working-age adults and their young and older dependents, therefore refining the calculation of the dependency ratio. In particular, one will need to assess the population of the young dependents as well as the population of adults who are actually working. Second, it will be also necessary to examine the conditions required to trigger a faster and significant fertility decline in the region. This is most important because the relationship between the active adults and their dependents is predicated by the fertility decline, which will bring the changes to the age structure.

scholarly journals Demography of Anglicans in Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimating the Population of Anglicans in Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-60
Author(s):  
Andrew McKinnon
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
Statistical Estimate ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Church

AbstractThere is an emerging debate about the growth of Anglicanism in sub-Saharan Africa. With this debate in mind, this paper uses four statistically representative surveys of sub-Saharan Africa to estimate the relative and absolute number who identify as Anglican in five countries: Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda. The results for Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania are broadly consistent with previous scholarly assessments. The findings on Nigeria and Uganda, the two largest provinces, are likely to be more controversial. The evidence from statistically representative surveys finds that the claims often made of the Church of Nigeria consisting of ‘over 18 million’ exceedingly unlikely; the best statistical estimate is that under 8 million Nigerians identify as Anglican. The evidence presented here shows that Uganda (rather than Nigeria) has the strongest claim to being the largest province in Africa in terms of those who identify as Anglican, and is larger than is usually assumed. Evidence from the Ugandan Census of Populations and Households, however, also suggests the proportion of Ugandans that identify as Anglican is in decline, even if absolute numbers have been growing, driven by population growth.

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