Getting to Africa’s Demographic Dividend

In this chapter, Cilliers defines the demographic dividend and explains its relationship to economic growth, with a focus on the African continent. It first covers the fundamentals of the relationship between population and economics, then offers an in-depth discussion of two key concepts, the demographic transition and demographic dividend. The chapter demonstrates that sub-Saharan Africa’s high fertility rates are a drag on development rather than an advantage, as the region can only expect to enjoy a demographic dividend after mid-century. It then uses scenario analysis to demonstrate that, given the right policy conditions, Africa can accelerate population-driven economic growth by reducing its fertility rate through interventions in education, infrastructure, human capital and, most importantly, women’s empowerment.

Wanted: A Revolution in Agriculture

Agriculture is the backbone of many African economies. Cilliers explores the history and role of agriculture in development, and the likely future trajectory of agriculture in Africa along the Current Path, drawing lessons from other regions. Improvements in this sector, particularly access to finance and use of modern technology can unlock the significant potential to achieve food security, improve health and nutrition outcomes, create agribusiness ventures that influence employment, earn foreign exchange through exports and promote economic prosperity. The chapter concludes with a scenario that emulates the impact of a revolution in agriculture on food security and growth.

Trade and Growth

Cilliers starts by exploring the modern history of international trade and the importance of trade to economic growth and global cooperation. The chapter then provides an overview of Africa’s trading partners, the need for greater regional integration in the continent and the challenges to achieving intra-regional cooperation. It examines the need to improve the quality of governance, bridge the infrastructure deficit and eventually focus on a manufacturing-led growth path. Reducing both tariff and non-tariff barriers could facilitate the successful implementation of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), induce economic growth, increase per capita incomes and reduce poverty. A penultimate section models the potential impact of the AfCFTA on growth, poverty reduction and increased average incomes.

The Growing Gap

In this chapter Cilliers introduces the growing divergence in income and other indices of well-being between Africa and the Rest of the World. He touches on various aspects such as extreme poverty and Africa’s marginal role in the global economy and illustrates the challenge by comparing the divergent experiences of South Korea and Ghana in demographics and income, before moving to introduce matters relating to productivity, digitisation, agriculture and manufacturing. The chapter presents key characteristics of Africa compared to other countries and regions to 2040, defines some of the terms, introduces the International Futures forecasting platform that is used for the forecasts, and the structure of the book.

Poverty, Inequality and Growth

Cilliers first explores the progress that has been made globally in poverty reduction in a historical context and then the relationship between inequality and growth. He concludes that Africa will miss goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals on the elimination of extreme poverty by 2030 by a substantial margin. The chapter uses three income measures of extreme poverty for low, lower-middle and upper-middle countries to frame the current situation in Africa and then discusses and forecasts the impact of social grants on poverty alleviation. A final section presents the results of a scenario, Social Grants for Africa, and compares the results with the poverty forecast in the Current Path.

Technological Innovation and the Power of Leapfrogging

Technological innovation and the notion of leapfrogging are imperative to Africa’s future and will shape development on the continent in ways that are difficult to anticipate. However, the impact of the shale and tight oil revolution in the USA demonstrates the potential of new technologies to leapfrog aspects of traditional development. This is most likely in the renewable energy space provided the challenges associated with energy storage can be overcome. Already the uptake of mobile phones and the internet have brought financial services to millions and mobile telephony is at the forefront of social change in Africa. Building on the example of what is happening in Ghana that was explored in Chapter 10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_9, this chapter models the impact of a Leapfrogging scenario.

Prospects for Greater Peace

In this chapter, Cilliers assesses historical and present conflict dynamics across Africa and how they relate to governance, demographics and socioeconomics. Woven throughout is a discussion on the role of peacekeepers and external involvement more broadly, the surge of terrorism in Africa and how these two phenomena bear upon one another. It assesses the origins, nature and implications of the declining trends in armed conflict and the emergence of urban protests as the key feature of violence and instability in much of Africa. In an alternative future scenario, Cilliers assesses what development outcomes Africa could expect if it were to succeed in reducing levels of instability in a scenario named Silencing the Guns.

Boosting Education

In this chapter Cilliers provides an overview of trends in education in Africa and compares that with progress in other regions. In addition to a review of common educational outcomes such as measuring years of schooling, he places attention on the poor quality of education and roles of gender exclusion. That is followed by a summary of future education requirements and a scenario, Boosting Education, that explores the impact of improvements in the quality and quantity of education in Africa while taking advantage of technology to promote learning outcomes and human development.

Changing Productive Structures

In this chapter, Cilliers offers various explanations for Africa’s lack of sustained, structural economic transformation from low-value economic activities towards high-value services and manufacturing, and explores the challenges associated with the continent failing to industrialise. He offers historical context for how this situation emerged, drawing from global datasets such as trade data from the UN Conference on Trade and Development. The chapter then proceeds to look to the future of industrialisation in Africa in the context of technology-driven changes to the manufacturing sector globally via the fourth industrial revolution, which could offer the continent opportunities to gain a foothold in global value chains. The latter portion of the chapter models key interventions in a Made in Africa scenario, and examines its economic impact to 2040.

Africa’s Current Path

Cilliers provides a summary and analysis of Africa’s development history since the 1980s including the impact of the Brundtland Commission report that culminated in the Millennium Development Goals and, in 2015, the Sustainable Development Goals. Other key matters covered in the chapter are the impact of the various structural adjustment programmes, Africa’s growing dependence upon commodities, the continents rapid democratisation and slow pace of urbanisation. The chapter concludes with a summary of key characteristics of Africa’s likely future—the Current Path forecast to 2040—that includes a forecast of economic size, demographics, income and poverty levels. The chapter serves as essential backdrop to the struggle for development that is examined across different sectors in subsequent chapters.