Prediction of Total Investment in Fixed Assets Based on the SARIMA Model and X_12_ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method

Author(s):  
Canyi Yang
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 28-33
Author(s):  
Ravshan Mamatov ◽  

The economic growth of the Republic of Uzbekistan will depend on production factors that contribute to the annual growth of the country's GDP. At the same time, extensive production growth will lead to the implementation of unpromising investments. A growing share of innovation-oriented investments in the total investment in fixed assets in the country will lead to intensive economic growth in the country


Author(s):  
Irena Kropsz-Wydra

The main objective is the analysis of changes in the level of investment outlays incurred for fixed assets serving environmental protection in Poland by investment directions. The adopted time horizon is the period 2002-2018. The investment directions of implemented investment outlays directed to fixed assets in environmental protection were analyzed from a regional perspective, showing the average share of investment outlays by investment directions in voivodships and the average dynamics of changes. A positive effect was the increase in the value of total outlays directed to fixed assets serving environmental protection and within individual investment directions in the field of environmental protection. It has been shown that in the structure of environmental guidelines in Poland and its voivodships, the most financial resources were directed to wastewater management and water protection, atmospheric air and climate protection, as well as waste management. In Poland, after 2004, there was a clearly outlined upward trend taking into account the dynamics of the level of total investment in fixed assets for environmental protection. There was also a growing dynamic of changes in the structure of directions of investment outlays implemented for fixed assets in environmental protection in Poland and individual voivodships. The effect of this was an increase in the share of total investment expenditure incurred for environmental protection in relation to GDP and total expenditure in the national economy, as well as an increase in expenditure per capita.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3661
Author(s):  
Yulong Luo ◽  
Can Wang ◽  
Chen Chen ◽  
Kangle Ding ◽  
Weiliang Zeng

After more than 40 years’ opening-up and reform, China’s urbanization has entered a new type of urbanization. In order to reveal the rule of different infrastructure investments and urbanization relationships, this paper uses Shanghai as a case by applying econometric methods to study the detailed relationship between different indicators from 1990 to 2019. Firstly, we quantify that each variable has a long-term co-integration relationship with urbanization by co-integration test. And we found that the real estate is a main driving force of urbanization while the construction project investment plays an important role in promoting the urbanization rate in the studied period. Secondly, according to the Granger test, our study illustrates that each variable has a bilateral Granger relationship with urbanization while the urbanization rate has more Granger causality impact on the studied variables. Thirdly, based on impulse response test and variance decomposition analysis, we found that urbanization rate with other variables accounts for the majority of the percentage of impacts while the total investment in fixed assets and its three categories contribute a small amount to the urbanization rate. Finally, we propose policy suggestions to strengthen healthy urbanization development in Shanghai.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Tamer Bahjat Sabri

This paper seeks to shed light on investment in fixed assets before and after the financial crisis that took place in 2008 and compare the two periods together in the sectors of industry and investment in Palestine Stock Exchange. The period between 2005 – 2007 was chosen to represent to the pre-crisis time and the period between 2010 -2012 was chosen to represent the post-crisis time. The population of the study consists of fifteen organizations from both sectors. To test the hypothesis of the study, the independent samples T-test was employed.The average ratio of fixed assets to the total assets of industry and investment rose from 56.2% before the crisis to 58.5% after the crisis. As for the hypotheses of the study, the findings showed no difference except for the seventh hypothesis. There was a statically significant difference in the ratio of fixed assets to equity between the listed companies that a high return on assets and those that have a low return.


Author(s):  
USIK I.,

У статті розкрито основи моделювання структурноїтрансформації економіки країни в умовах глобалізаційних викликів.Побудована система економетричних моделей розвитку економікикраїни за такими видами економічної діяльності: промисловість, сільськегосподарство, будівництво, транспорт та зв'язок та сфера послуг.Формування системи економетричних моделей за кожним видомекономічної діяльності здійснювалося на основі даних за 2001−2018 рр. затакими параметрами: доходи бюджету країни; інвестиції в основнийкапітал; обсяг основних фондів в галузі виробництва; чисельністьзайнятих; випуск товарів та послуг за галуззю виробництва. На основісистеми економетричних моделей розвитку економіки країни здійсненопрогнозування структури економіки на 2019−2022 рр., проведена оцінкаструктурної трансформації та виявлено, що в економіці України з2010 р. намітилася тенденція до збільшення частки валового випуску всфері послуг. Прогнозна структура економіки країни дозволяє розробитизаходи державної політики щодо стабілізації економіки від наслідківможливої структурної трансформації. The article describes the basics of modeling of the structuraltransformation of the country's economy in the context of globalizationchallenges. A system of econometric models of the country's economydevelopment based on the following types of economic activity: industry,agriculture, construction, transport, communications and services. Theformation of a system of econometric models for each type of economic activitywas carried out on the basis of data for 2001−2018 according to the followingparameters: budget revenues of the country; investment in fixed assets; thevolume of fixed assets in the field of production; number to take; production ofgoods and services for the production industry. On the basis of the system ofeconometric models of the country's economy development, the forecasting ofthe structure of the economy for 2019−2022 was carried out, an assessment ofthe structural transformation was carried out, and it was found that in theUkrainian economy since 2010 there was a tendency to increase the share ofgross output in the service sector. The predicted structure of the country'seconomy allows developing state policy measures to stabilize the economyfrom the effects of a possible structural transformation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 8160
Author(s):  
Piotr Bórawski ◽  
Marta Guth ◽  
Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska ◽  
Krzysztof Józef Jankowski ◽  
Andrzej Parzonko ◽  
...  

In recent years, social and economic goals have been preferable compared to environmental issues. However, global problems with the environment, increasing pollution, and gas heating emissions have made environmental issues a major priority. Suddenly, human beings have realized that environmental investments are needed to maintain better world conditions for future generations. This article investigates the development of agricultural investment in the context of production factors in Polish voivodeships in the years 2000–2018. Farmers have to choose between investing and developing production or being more environmentally friendly and invest on a smaller scale or transform their farms into organic production. Moreover, the investment in environmental protection in Poland was analyzed. Investment outlays on fixed assets for environmental protection and outlays on fixed assets for water management were investigated. The level of investment has changed since Poland joined the EU. With membership, Poland gained access to new markets and technology. Particular attention has been focused on production factors (land, capital, and the work force). We have conducted as a proxy regular regression analysis and after panel regression to measure the impact of the chosen factors on explained variables: investment outlays in agriculture, and investment outlays per 1 ha of agricultural land. We have used correlation analysis to examine the relations between explanatory variables and total gross investment in agriculture and total investment outlays in agriculture per 1 ha of agricultural land, outlays on fixed assets for environmental protection, and outlays on fixed assets for water management. Our analysis confirms that explanatory variables are important in shaping total investment outlays in agriculture and total investment outlays per 1 ha of agricultural land.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongzheng Liu ◽  
Jie Mao

China initiated a major reform for capital taxation in 2004. Completed in 2009, it introduced permanent tax incentives for firms’ investment in fixed assets. We explore a unique firm-level dataset from years 2005–2012 and utilize a quasi-experimental design to test the impacts of the reform on firms’ investment and productivity. We find that, on average, the reform raised investment and productivity of the treated firms relative to the control firms by 38.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. We also show that the positive effects tend to be strengthened for firms with financial constraints. (JEL D24, D25, G31, H25, O25, P31, P35)


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