Estimation of Structural Fire Vulnerability Through Fragility Curves

2021 ◽  
pp. 586-593
Author(s):  
Enrico Cardellino ◽  
Donatella de Silva ◽  
Emidio Nigro
Keyword(s):  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Structural Fire

SEISMIC RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES: CASE STUDY ON A BLACK CARBON PLANT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Karagiannakis
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk And Resilience ◽  
Industrial Plants ◽  
Plant Equipment

This paper deals with state of the art risk and resilience calculations for industrial plants. Resilience is a top priority issue on the agenda of societies due to climate change and the all-time demand for human life safety and financial robustness. Industrial plants are highly complex systems containing a considerable number of equipment such as steel storage tanks, pipe rack-piping systems, and other installations. Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios triggered by past earthquakes due to failure on critical components were followed by severe repercussions on the community, long recovery times and great economic losses. Hence, facility planners and emergency managers should be aware of possible seismic damages and should have already established recovery plans to maximize the resilience and minimize the losses. Seismic risk assessment is the first step of resilience calculations, as it establishes possible damage scenarios. In order to have an accurate risk analysis, the plant equipment vulnerability must be assessed; this is made feasible either from fragility databases in the literature that refer to customized equipment or through numerical calculations. Two different approaches to fragility assessment will be discussed in this paper: (i) code-based Fragility Curves (FCs); and (ii) fragility curves based on numerical models. A carbon black process plant is used as a case study in order to display the influence of various fragility curve realizations taking their effects on risk and resilience calculations into account. Additionally, a new way of representing the total resilience of industrial installations is proposed. More precisely, all possible scenarios will be endowed with their weighted recovery curves (according to their probability of occurrence) and summed together. The result is a concise graph that can help stakeholders to identify critical plant equipment and make decisions on seismic mitigation strategies for plant safety and efficiency. Finally, possible mitigation strategies, like structural health monitoring and metamaterial-based seismic shields are addressed, in order to show how future developments may enhance plant resilience. The work presented hereafter represents a highly condensed application of the research done during the XP-RESILIENCE project, while more detailed information is available on the project website https://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience.

scholarly journals Development of fragility curves for railway ballast and embankment scour due to overtopping flood flow

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryota Tsubaki ◽  
Koji Ichii ◽  
Jeremy D. Bricker ◽  
Yoshihisa Kawahara
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
Single Track ◽  
Hydraulic Analysis ◽  
Railway Ballast ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Flood Flow

Abstract. Fragility curves evaluating risk of railway track ballast and embankment fill scour were developed. To develop fragility curves, two well-documented single-track railway washouts during two recent floods in Japan were investigated. Type of damage to the railway was categorized into no damage, ballast scour, and embankment scour, in order of damage severity. Railway overtopping surcharge for each event was estimated via hydrologic and hydraulic analysis. Normal and log-normal fragility curves were developed based on failure probability derived from field records. A combined ballast and embankment scour model was validated by comparing the spatial distribution of railway scour with the field damage record.

scholarly journals Development of Fragility Curves for Piping and Slope Stability of River Levees

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 738
Author(s):  
Nicola Rossi ◽  
Mario Bačić ◽  
Meho Saša Kovačević ◽  
Lovorka Librić
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Flood Event ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Design Code ◽  
A Site ◽  
Insight Into

The design code Eurocode 7 relies on semi-probabilistic calculation procedures, through utilization of the soil parameters obtained by in situ and laboratory tests, or by the means of transformation models. To reach a prescribed safety margin, the inherent soil parameter variability is accounted for through the application of partial factors to either soil parameters directly or to the resistance. However, considering several sources of geotechnical uncertainty, including the inherent soil variability, measurement error and transformation uncertainty, full probabilistic analyses should be implemented to directly consider the site-specific variability. This paper presents the procedure of developing fragility curves for levee slope stability and piping as failure mechanisms that lead to larger breaches, where a direct influence of the flood event intensity on the probability of failure is calculated. A range of fragility curve sets is presented, considering the variability of levee material properties and varying durations of the flood event, thus providing crucial insight into the vulnerability of the levee exposed to rising water levels. The procedure is applied to the River Drava levee, a site which has shown a continuous trend of increased water levels in recent years.

scholarly journals Fragility curves for Italian URM buildings based on a hybrid method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sandoli ◽  
G. P. Lignola ◽  
B. Calderoni ◽  
A. Prota
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Masonry Building ◽  
Masonry Buildings ◽  
Seismic Behaviour ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Damage Scenario

AbstractA hybrid seismic fragility model for territorial-scale seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is developed and presented in this paper. The method combines expert-judgment and mechanical approaches to derive typological fragility curves for Italian residential masonry building stock. The first classifies Italian masonry buildings in five different typological classes as function of age of construction, structural typology, and seismic behaviour and damaging of buildings observed following the most severe earthquakes occurred in Italy. The second, based on numerical analyses results conducted on building prototypes, provides all the parameters necessary for developing fragility functions. Peak-Ground Acceleration (PGA) at Ultimate Limit State attainable by each building’s class has been chosen as an Intensity Measure to represent fragility curves: three types of curve have been developed, each referred to mean, maximum and minimum value of PGAs defined for each building class. To represent the expected damage scenario for increasing earthquake intensities, a correlation between PGAs and Mercalli-Cancani-Sieber macroseismic intensity scale has been used and the corresponding fragility curves developed. Results show that the proposed building’s classes are representative of the Italian masonry building stock and that fragility curves are effective for predicting both seismic vulnerability and expected damage scenarios for seismic-prone areas. Finally, the fragility curves have been compared with empirical curves obtained through a macroseismic approach on Italian masonry buildings available in literature, underlining the differences between the methods.

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