Quantifying Sources of Uncertainty in Temperature and Precipitation Projections over Different Parts of Europe

Author(s):  
Péter Szabó ◽  
Gabriella Szépszó
2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (9) ◽  
pp. 1247-1260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew deJong ◽  
Edward McBean ◽  
Bahram Gharabaghi

Possible trends of climate (temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET)) for Regina, Saskatchewan are described, premised on comparisons of both projections from historical data and calculations from use of four general circulation models (GCMs). Results derived from GCMs of CGCM3.1, CCSM3, HadGEM1 and MIROC3.2, along with a series of storylines describing the relationships between the forces driving greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions during the 21st century, are employed which demonstrate increasing trends in temperature and precipitation. Unlike the identifiable and divergent projections of mean annual temperatures, there are relatively small differences in total annual precipitation projections using a number of projected scenarios of emissions. Further, although the projections indicate higher rates of precipitation are expected, there will not be increased water availability due to greater projected increases in PET, translating to there being less water available in the next century.


Author(s):  
Daiana A Zhernova ◽  
Maya V Nilova ◽  
Alexei A Oskolski

Abstract Astropanax and Neocussonia are two recently resurrected genera of Araliaceae that had long been considered as an Afro-Malagasy lineage of Schefflera. The wood structure of 11 Neocussonia spp. and eight Astropanax spp. has been studied. Neocussonia shows a higher average length of vessel elements (1319 µm) and number of bars on perforation plates (up to 66) than any other Araliaceae examined to date. Neocussonia is distinct from Astropanax by its smaller diameter and higher frequency of vessels, rare occurrence of simple perforation plates, more numerous bars on scalariform perforation plates and smaller intervessel pits. The interspecific variation in percentage of simple perforation plates, bar number on scalariform perforation plates, vessel frequency and uniseriate ray number is affected by seasonality in temperature and precipitation. The sharp distinction in wood structure between samples of A. abyssinicus from Cameroon and Burundi suggests that the populations from different parts of the disjunct range represent two different species. Our data also suggest that A. goetzenii is an artificial group. Astropanax myrianthus from Madagascar and A. polysciadus from continental Africa, two cryptic species that have long been included in Schefflera myriantha, show significant differences in vessel size and grouping, percentage of simple perforation plates and intervessel pit size.


1997 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. Jordan

There are several methods of predicting terrestrial palaeoclimates from the size and shape of fossil leaves (foliar physiognomy). The assumptions and sources of uncertainty of these methods are considered and used to determine the true uncertainty. Their ability to predict mean annual temperature (MAT) is poor. The approximate standard errors for samples of living vegetation in North America are in the range of 1.7˚C to 2.5˚C, but the true uncertainty for fossil samples is higher. Specimens with very different physiognomy to typical specimens in the model have higher uncertainties. Besides these uncertainties, the processes of fossilisation, the allocation of specimens to taxa, and the effects of other factors on foliar physiognomy all increase the uncertainty of the predictions. Overall uncertainties in the predictions of MAT are equivalent to standard errors of about 3–5˚C depending on the nature of the fossil site and flora. Other factors affect foliar physiognomic predictions significantly because predicted MAT does not change as rapidly with altitude as true MAT, and floras from different parts of the world with similar temperatures give different temperature predictions. Mean annual temperature and one precipitation parameter (probably mean annual precipitation or the growing season precipitation) can be predicted more or less independently, although the predictions of precipitation are weak. Physiognomic signals for other climatic parameters are weak or apparently non-existent, and previously published predictions of past equability are primarily based on correlations with modern MAT, rather than physiognomy.


2014 ◽  
Vol 141 (689) ◽  
pp. 1137-1146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Wang ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Qianguo Lin ◽  
Xianghui Nie ◽  
Jinliang Liu

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1047-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Caesar ◽  
T. Janes ◽  
A. Lindsay ◽  
B. Bhaskaran

High resolution climate change simulations for south Asia are evaluated and show the changes projected during the 21st century.


Eos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Wheeling

Researchers identify the main sources of uncertainty in projections of global glacier mass change, which is expected to add about 8–16 centimeters to sea level, through this century.


Author(s):  
Virginia TASSINARI ◽  
Ezio MANZINI ◽  
Maurizio TELI ◽  
Liesbeth HUYBRECHTS

The issue of design and democracy is an urgent and rather controversial one. Democracy has always been a core theme in design research, but in the past years it has shifted in meaning. The current discourse in design research that has been working in a participatory way on common issues in given local contexts, has developed an enhanced focus on rethinking democracy. This is the topic of some recent design conferences, such PDC2018, Nordes2017 and DRS2018, and of the DESIS Philosophy Talk #6 “Regenerating Democracy?” (www.desis-philosophytalks.org), from which this track originates. To reflect on the role and responsibility of designers in a time where democracy in its various forms is often put at risk seems an urgent matter to us. The concern for the ways in which the democratic discourse is put at risk in many different parts of the word is registered outside the design community (for instance by philosophers such as Noam Chomsky), as well as within (see for instance Manzini’s and Margolin’s call Design Stand Up (http://www.democracy-design.org). Therefore, the need to articulate a discussion on this difficult matter, and to find a common vocabulary we can share to talk about it. One of the difficulties encountered for instance when discussing this issue, is that the word “democracy” is understood in different ways, in relation to the traditions and contexts in which it is framed. Philosophically speaking, there are diverse discourses on democracy that currently inspire design researchers and theorists, such as Arendt, Dewey, Negri and Hardt, Schmitt, Mouffe, Rancière, Agamben, Rawls, Habermas, Latour, Gramsci, whose positions on this topic are very diverse. How can these authors guide us to further articulate this discussion? In which ways can these philosophers support and enrich design’s innovation discourses on design and democracy, and guide our thinking in addressing sensitive and yet timely questions, such as what design can do in what seems to be dark times for democracy, and whether design can possibly contribute to enrich the current democratic ecosystems, making them more strong and resilient?


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