Mapping Drought Risk (Wheat) of the World

2015 ◽  
pp. 227-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingming Zhang ◽  
Hao Guo ◽  
Weixia Yin ◽  
Ran Wang ◽  
Jian Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Risk ◽  
The World

scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability in Zacatecas, Mexico

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1431
Author(s):  
David Ortega-Gaucin ◽  
Jesús A. Ceballos-Tavares ◽  
Alejandro Ordoñez Sánchez ◽  
Heidy V. Castellano-Bahena
Keyword(s):  
Risk Index ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
The State ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
The World ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Drought is one of the major threats to water and food security in many regions around the world. The present study focuses on the evaluation of agricultural drought risk from an integrated perspective, that is, emphasizing the combined role of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to drought. For this purpose, we used the Mexican state of Zacatecas as a case study. This state is one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of agricultural drought in the country. The proposed method includes three stages: first, we analyzed the risk of agricultural drought at the municipal scale using the FAO Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) in its country version (Country-Level ASIS) and also determined a Drought Hazard Index (DHI). Subsequently, we conducted a municipal assessment of exposure and vulnerability to drought based on a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators, which we combined using an analytical procedure to generate the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) and the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI). Finally, we determined a Drought Risk Index (DRI) based on a weighted addition of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Results showed that 32% of the state’s municipalities are at high and very high risk of agricultural drought; these municipalities are located mainly in the center and north of the state, where 75.8% of agriculture is rainfed, 63.6% of production units are located, and 67.4% of the state’s population depends on agricultural activity. These results are in general agreement with those obtained by other studies analyzing drought in the state of Zacatecas using different meteorological drought indices, and the results are also largely in line with official data on agricultural surfaces affected by drought in this state. The generated maps can help stakeholders and public policymakers to guide investments and actions aimed at reducing vulnerability to and risk of agricultural drought. The method described can also be applied to other Mexican states or adapted for use in other states or countries around the world.

Drought Forecasting, Thresholds and Triggers: Implementing Forecast-based Financing in Mozambique

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rogerio Bonifacio ◽  
Gabriela Guimaraes Nobre ◽  
Daniela Cuellar
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
World Food ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Data Set ◽  
World Food Programme ◽  
The World

<p>To support livelihoods who rely on agricultural activities against increasing climate and food insecurity risks, the World Food Programme is implementing Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for drought management in Mozambique. FbF is an approach in which humanitarian financing and anticipatory action are automatically made available based on a certain likelihood of a drought event.</p><p>To enable the implementation of FbF projects, the World Food Programme has developed and implemented probabilistic seasonal forecasts of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) covering Mozambique’s rainfall season (October-April). The system produces forecast of the probability of the SPI to be less than -1, a threshold that identifies significant drought events at time scales of 2 and 3 months. These are derived from ECMWF ensemble seasonal daily precipitation forecasts, available monthly and processed from August to February to forecast drought occurrence one to six months ahead of time in four Mozambican districts.</p><p>Operational usage of probabilistic SPI forecasts requires both the derivation of a trigger (a probability value above which drought is assumed to take place) and an assessment of forecast skill. The trigger is a probability value above which drought is assumed to take place and its exceedance leads to the implementation of anticipatory actions. Forecast skill determines if the forecast system for a specific SPI time frame is usable. Both forecast skill and triggers are derived jointly through a forecast verification analysis based on a comparison between historical time series of SPI forecasts (1993-2019)  and SPI values derived from CHIRPS satellite rainfall estimates used as a reference precipitation data set.</p><p>The outcomes of this analysis are compiled into manageable tables of forecast analysis that were readily applied for decision-making process in four districts in Mozambique. In addition, a preliminary cost loss analysis for some of the Forecast-based Financing interventions against droughts and food insecurity demonstrated a potential to generate large socio-economic gains for both WFP and the beneficiaries of the anticipatory actions.</p><p>The goal of this abstract is to present WFP’s on-going and previous technical activities linked to the development of Forecast-based Financing projects for drought risk management to the broader scientific community. Whereas this system is being consolidated and still under review, next technical developments will comprise the better integration of hazard indicators with “impact levels” and risk metrics, adequate bias correction and benchmarking with other existing forecasting systems. Finally, WFP is  committed in producing evidences that can protect livelihoods and save lives through the great window of opportunity generated by actionable forecasts.</p><p> </p>

The importance of co-design in satellite-derived drought risk financing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Enenkel ◽  
Daniel Osgood
Keyword(s):  
Vital Role ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Entry Barrier ◽  
Basis Risk ◽  
Subjective Assessments ◽  
Black Boxes ◽  
The World ◽  
First Results ◽  
Local Risk

<p>Several drought risk financing projects have been developed to strengthen the disaster resilience of the world’s vulnerable communities, countries and regions. Satellite-derived information plays a vital role to characterize historical and current drought impacts. Various independent earth observation datasets can be used to cross-validate each other, strengthening the disaster narrative and reduce basis risk. However, satellite data require additional socioeconomic information, which often shows critical gaps, to close the gap between hazards, vulnerabilities and impacts. While satellite-derived information is considered to be objective there are various projects with payout trigger mechanisms that rely on subjective assessments, for instance expressed as a declaration of emergency. The next generation of risk financing solutions for extreme weather and climate events will have to merge these two perspectives. The World Bank’s Next Generation Drought Index (NGDI) project might be the first attempt to link a convergence of evidence approach applied to satellite-derived insurance triggers with a guided integration of local expertise. The project aims to 1) avoid the perception of more complex technical methods as analytical black boxes 2) benchmark different datasets, model outputs and index parameters, and 3) lower the entry barrier for novel risk financing solutions by establishing local risk ownership. This study focuses on the first results of the NGDI project for Senegal. </p>

Mapping Drought Risk (Maize) of the World

2015 ◽  
pp. 211-226
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Yin ◽  
Xingming Zhang ◽  
Han Yu ◽  
Degen Lin ◽  
Yaoyao Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Risk ◽  
The World

Mapping Drought Risk (Rice) of the World

2015 ◽  
pp. 243-258
Author(s):  
Xingming Zhang ◽  
Degen Lin ◽  
Hao Guo ◽  
Yaoyao Wu ◽  
Jing’ai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Drought Risk ◽  
The World

A pragmatist philosophy of psychological science and its implications for replication

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Gantman ◽  
Robin Gomila ◽  
Joel E. Martinez ◽  
J. Nathan Matias ◽  
Elizabeth Levy Paluck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
William James ◽  
Mental Processes ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Behavioral Measurement ◽  
The World ◽  
Pragmatist Philosophy

AbstractA pragmatist philosophy of psychological science offers to the direct replication debate concrete recommendations and novel benefits that are not discussed in Zwaan et al. This philosophy guides our work as field experimentalists interested in behavioral measurement. Furthermore, all psychologists can relate to its ultimate aim set out by William James: to study mental processes that provide explanations for why people behave as they do in the world.

Culture and the plasticity of perception

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Lifshitz ◽  
T. M. Luhrmann
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Context ◽  
Sensory Experience ◽  
Cultural Learning ◽  
The World

Abstract Culture shapes our basic sensory experience of the world. This is particularly striking in the study of religion and psychosis, where we and others have shown that cultural context determines both the structure and content of hallucination-like events. The cultural shaping of hallucinations may provide a rich case-study for linking cultural learning with emerging prediction-based models of perception.

Let's call a memory a memory, but what kind?

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazim Keven
Keyword(s):  
Episodic Memory ◽  
Animal Cognition ◽  
The World

Abstract Hoerl & McCormack argue that animals cannot represent past situations and subsume animals’ memory-like representations within a model of the world. I suggest calling these memory-like representations as what they are without beating around the bush. I refer to them as event memories and explain how they are different from episodic memory and how they can guide action in animal cognition.

Rotational Characteristics of the Green Solar Corona: 1947-1991

1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 139-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Rybák ◽  
V. Rušin ◽  
M. Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Solar Corona ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Coronal Emission ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The World ◽  
Coronal Emission Line ◽  
Homogeneous Data

AbstractFe XIV 530.3 nm coronal emission line observations have been used for the estimation of the green solar corona rotation. A homogeneous data set, created from measurements of the world-wide coronagraphic network, has been examined with a help of correlation analysis to reveal the averaged synodic rotation period as a function of latitude and time over the epoch from 1947 to 1991.The values of the synodic rotation period obtained for this epoch for the whole range of latitudes and a latitude band ±30° are 27.52±0.12 days and 26.95±0.21 days, resp. A differential rotation of green solar corona, with local period maxima around ±60° and minimum of the rotation period at the equator, was confirmed. No clear cyclic variation of the rotation has been found for examinated epoch but some monotonic trends for some time intervals are presented.A detailed investigation of the original data and their correlation functions has shown that an existence of sufficiently reliable tracers is not evident for the whole set of examinated data. This should be taken into account in future more precise estimations of the green corona rotation period.

Where in the world is the hip hop nation?

Popular Music ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-245
Author(s):  
Inez H. Templeton
Keyword(s):  
Hip Hop ◽  
The World
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